I didn't mind your pick at first, but others have convinced me that Stockton is clearly the better pick. Injury concern differences between the two and the fact that Stockton has actually done it already are the deciding factors for me.

agree with this analysis completely

I'm trying to understand your argument against Deron and I just can't seem to understand it. All you've said is that "hes young, some young players fall off, so Deron could fall off" which seems like an incredibly weak argument to me.

Maybe PM me the guys you're thinking of that put up huge numbers early like Deron, got better every year like Deron, weren't injury prone like Deron, and then fell off because I'm just not seeing them.

how is having one injury and having one season where he played 64 games in make him injury prone?....I notice some people are desperately reacching with their argument.

And yes - calling Paul injury prone is reaching.

Wallace was better on D though.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...1&p2=wallabe01

for the record, ben career wise over 22 games (decent sample) held shaq to 26/10.2/3 on 58.5% fg shooting and 8.4 fta per game. considering his career average over that stretch is 25.2/11.5/2.7 on 58% shooting and 10 fta per game, I think ben had very little defensive presence on shaq. this is no knock to him, obv, since he's a mega defender, but there just isnt ANYONE who matched up well on shaq.

I think I know the player he's thinking of (Meb's a Bucks fan, right?), but yeah, I'd say it's the exception rather than the rule.

And I would've pointed out that Wade had missed 33 games in his first 3 years and was a huge injury risk due to his aggressive style of play. So its not surprising that Wade ended up being injured.

You guys are trying to compare that situation with Deron Williams, who has missed 4 games in 3 years and doesn't absorb nearly that amount of contact.

was just gonna respond with something like this.

I feel like we unfairly critisize a lot of the Western teams this year....its not their fault they played in the most stacked conference of all time. To win 50+ in that conference meant they were a good team imo.

But thats not what we're doing here. Yes Deron could suffer a freak injury, BUT UNLESS HE IS INJURY PRONE THAN HE IS NO MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER A FREAK INJURY IN OUR LEAGUE THAN STOCKTON, JORDAN, MALONE, OR ANYONE ELSE.

The problem is, we DON'T know if Deron is injury prone or not. We KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, Malone aren't. HUGE difference.

Of course he is more likely to suffer an injury than Stockton. Staying injury-free (or almost injury-free) for 19 years is a MUCH more reliable indicator of durability than staying injury-free for 3 years.

Deron ain't no biiitch yo. D-Wade always has been. HUGE difference.

Sergz put it better. I'm not dissing Deron, or anything.

Other extremely talented, non injury prone players simply became attitude problems and while they stay/ed productive and put up big numbers, they are always detrimental to any team they play for. How can we be sure a young guy won't become like that?

lol @ at naming Jordan, Stockton, and Malone...**** I should have taken them w/ my 48th? pick. Seriously, wtf are you people talking about? You guys are talking about timepieces that set the standard of excellence in all facets of the game--we are well past these types of players.

Playing 242/246 games in 3 years, we almost know he's not injury prone.

You don't really KNOW that Stockton, Jordan, and Malone aren't either. Its quite possible that someone who is injury prone could luck out and stay injury free for one career.

Nothing about Deron leads me to believe that he is injury prone, so I'm certainly not going to downgrade him based on the possibility that someone who has missed 4 games in 3 years and has a good solid build is suddenly going to become injury prone.

True. Too bad the home teams blow out the road teams in every damn playoff game.

Round 2, Pick #51: Carmelo Anthony


-Led Syracuse to NCAA title and then was selected 3rd in the 2003 NBA Draft (lol, wonder how long 'til Darko gets picked in this)
-Unanimous All-Rookie First Team
-Second in NBA Rookie of the Year voting to LeBron James (whom he significantly outscored and outrebounded that year)
-Two time All-Star (lotta great forwards in the West)
-Scored at least 20 points in each of his first five seasons (in this slower paced NBA, that's huge), and he's scored 25+ each of the last three (and he's still not 24)

Plain and simple, this guy's a dynamic scoring machine (27 ppg over his last three seasons). He constantly commands a double-team and he's good for 6 rebounds a game (7.4 this past year). He's a poor man's LeBron out of that draft, but not by much. How he slipped this far is beyond me. Career 19.9 PER, but he's gone for 22, 22, and 21 the last three seasons since he's started to come into his own.

The scary thing is there is absolutely no reason to believe that he won't continue to get better and better as he moves into his first 24+ season next year. Having him on the floor makes your team a substantial offensive threat.

Paired with Yao, my team is gonna score (as long as I can put more useful pieces around these guys than the Rockets put around Yao and T-Mac).

Team So Far: Yao Ming, Carmelo Anthony

NoPairParker, you are on the clock

I don't think he should be downgraded either. But if you rate players on a 0-10 durability scale, Malone and Stockton would be a 10. Deron would be like an 8.5 imo. Way above averge, but you don't have enough data points to confidently put him in the top tier of the most durable players. And if you actually have to assign a probability to a player being injured in any given season, Deron's probability would have to be higher than Stockton's, though it would be lower than of most players in the league.

Anyway, this is a pretty esoteric argument and has very little to do with why I thought Deron wasn't the huge steal people were making him out to be. I certainly didn't downgrade him for lack of durability.

Carmelo is solid but unspectacular value at this point imo. Like the pairing with Yao.

Carmelo and Yao, two "black holes" on offense.

Ok, I'll agree with you on that.

I still find Deron to be the biggest steal of the draft so far....until my next pick at least!!!