Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion - Let's Get'er Done - Page 19 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

history would dictate Paul is going to be one the best PGs ever. You don't normally see a season like this and then a massive regression. However he's already missed a fair amount of games in his 3 years.. that's the main reason I'd be hesitant

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05-08-2008 , 12:38 AM

#452

BobboFitos

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher

Can I get some more thoughts on the reverse snake from others involved?

And sorry for the continued editing Clark. Will cap it at 40 though, so just 4 more...I want to do a good compromise between what everyone wanted.

dont want to reverse snake

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05-08-2008 , 12:39 AM

#453

tdarko

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Originally Posted by fanmail

Obviously we don't know for sure. But extrapolation, as I answered, is the process of constructing new data points outside a discrete set of known data points. The data we know is CP3's stats in 3+seasons. The other data we know is other elite PG's data early in their career, and how they fared in the long run.

Basically, we are assuming that he will be fairly healthy and just as if not more productive as he has been thus far.

I know what extrapolation is and I responded by saying:

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results are meaningless and lead to uncertainty. What exactly is your point?

Which is true. AI was mentioned. What about a guy like Grant Hill?

http://http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hillgr01.html

After his 3rd year in the league we could make some assumptions but they would be meaningless and lead to uncertainty. He could continue to be great or he could be marginalized by injuries his entire career and be disappointing. Like Franchise said, peak is a great barometer but longevity should count as a positive not a negative.

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05-08-2008 , 12:39 AM

#454

fanmail

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Originally Posted by BobboFitos

dont want to reverse snake

me either.

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05-08-2008 , 12:41 AM

#455

MikeyPatriot

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EPiPeN11,

For something as silly as this thread (and btw, I'm loving it, but just the idea of 35 random dudes drafting "franchises" is funny) and with zero money on the line, you are being wayyyyy too nitty about people being "outed." And the idea that we not discuss selections until 10 picks afterwards is laughable as well.

Just lighten up and have fun with it, pls.

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05-08-2008 , 12:42 AM

#456

btmagnetw

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how is it even debatable that chris paul's current season could be better than john stockton's best season? the rules are that you get the player at their peak, right?

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05-08-2008 , 12:42 AM

#457

kidcolin

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I like his continued pressuring about trades.. like there is any value in trading in this format

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05-08-2008 , 12:43 AM

#458

EPiPeN11

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Originally Posted by MikeyPatriot

Whatever it's just cause I had him in mind as someone who could possibly drop, i'm sure if others had a player in mind who could possibly drop to them and someone said OMG why did u pick that player over the player they wanted, they would be somewhat mad about it.

Obv it's not going to ruin my day or anythin, it's just annoying.

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05-08-2008 , 12:43 AM

#459

Shark Doctor

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hey guys (Tdarko) - we really shouldnt be discussing players who havnt been drafted yet...anyone else agree?...disagree?

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05-08-2008 , 12:43 AM

#460

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kidcolin

I like his continued pressuring about trades.. like there is any value in trading in this format

Especially considering the drop off after the top guys.

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05-08-2008 , 12:44 AM

#461

Franchise 60

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Originally Posted by SHARK DOCTOR

hey guys (Tdarko) - we really shouldnt be discussing players who havnt been drafted yet...anyone else agree?...disagree?

Disagree strongly.

How can we discuss CP3 pick without discussing Stockton and Isiah?

The assumption that one or two people will forget about a first ballot HOF'r doesn't outweigh the need for discussion.

As said before, its more important when we get outside of the first couple rounds.

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05-08-2008 , 12:45 AM

#462

Seadood228

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Originally Posted by .Alex.

It is a positive. But this is the NBA, not the NFL. It's very rare to see a guy put up amazing numbers one year, and then stray too far away from that the next.

Penny Hardaway, Shawn Kemp, Grant Hill, Shareef, Glenn Robinson, and Shawn Kemp all beg to differ. There are lots of "next big things" that don't amount to squat for whatever reasons. Granted CP3 had a better year than those guys ever did, but there's no reason to think that a similar dropoff is impossible.

That's why new players will be overrated here.

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05-08-2008 , 12:46 AM

#463

fanmail

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tdarko

I know what extrapolation is and I responded by saying:

Which is true. AI was mentioned. What about a guy like Grant Hill?

http://http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hillgr01.html

After his 3rd year in the league we could make some assumptions but they would be meaningless and lead to uncertainty. He could continue to be great or he could be marginalized by injuries his entire career and be disappointing. Like Franchise said, peak is a great barometer but longevity should count as a positive not a negative.

Didn't mean to insult your intelligence about extrap, just spelling it out.

I agree, he could have some tragic injury-riddled career and this season may be his best ever. BUT, there's no reason to assume he won't be awesome with a slight risk obviously. It just seems like those other guys, while obviously hall of famers are "safe" picks, due to having longevity.

While CP3 could get hurt, he is much more likely to have a very successful NBA career, and is as good a bet as anyone to become the best PG of all time. And in our league, any of those other guys are just as likely to be injured as CP. So not a reach imo.

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05-08-2008 , 12:49 AM

#464

HighStakesPro

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Originally Posted by Seadood228

You could similarly argue that other young players taken in later rounds who are only "good" will be underrated. I'm not going to name any names, but there are quite a few very good young players, and from a purely statisticaly standpoint, a few of them will probably elevate their games turn out to be great.

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05-08-2008 , 12:49 AM

#465

Franchise 60

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Is CP3 really only a "slight risk" for an injury plagued career? He has had a bunch of injuries already.

I'd say someone with very little to no injury history would be a "slight risk," not CP3.

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05-08-2008 , 12:49 AM

#466

ClarkNasty

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Marbury and KG are gonna rule the league!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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05-08-2008 , 12:50 AM

#467

BobboFitos

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Originally Posted by tdarko

I am CP3 fanboi and understand his greatness. But w/o knowing what his greatness will actually be--realizing that these picks are based on factors that we can't determine yes (injuries, peaks etc.), how can you justify this pick over Stockton?

i love stockton (not a chance ill get him

)

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05-08-2008 , 12:53 AM

#468

tdarko

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Originally Posted by fanmail

This is fair. I think arguing this may be very circular and maybe we should just assume he is going to be bustin' fools in the lane for a long time for pleasure of this draft!

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05-08-2008 , 12:54 AM

#469

.Alex.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Seadood228

Kemp and Robinson never dropped off from a peak season. They may not have reached their expectations, but that's obviously different. I'll give you the other guys, but compare it to all the elite players during this time who had continued success after their first great season, and you can see that the chances that Paul does the same is very high.

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05-08-2008 , 12:55 AM

#470

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tdarko

This is fair. I think arguing this may be very circular and maybe we should just assume he is going to be bustin' fools in the lane for a long time for pleasure of this draft!

I agree.

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05-08-2008 , 12:56 AM

#471

ClarkNasty

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I think that when evaluating, someone like Paul should be viewed as risky not only from a long term performance standpoint but also from a injury standpoint. Giving him the same career credit as say Hakeem doesn't make sense to me.

Last edited by ClarkNasty; 05-08-2008 at 01:02 AM.

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05-08-2008 , 12:58 AM

#472

Franchise 60

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkNasty

I think that when evaluating, someone like Paul should be viewed as risky not only from a long term performance standpoint but also from a risk standpoint. Giving him the same career credit as say Hakeem doesn't make sense to me.

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05-08-2008 , 12:58 AM

#473

BobboFitos

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Originally Posted by Seadood228

Just to clarify, Stockton was a much better defender than Chris Paul. John was next to impossible to post up due to his strength.

Also, in terms of health, Stockton played more 82 game seasons then anyone. He was a machine. Not that CP3 has any injury history or anything, but something to consider is with Stockton you never have to worry about him missing games.