I was going to make a post like this. 50-45 and 49-46 are just absurd.

^Absolutely agree. People watching it live probably thought the first 2 rounds could go to edgar because most people expected penn to just dominate him every round.

i watched this live yesterday and was disgusted by silva's daft antics and doubt ive seen anything as disrespectful yet in a fight.

was shocked at the loss of BJ by a guy that normally would get hammered, edgar would make a good dancer but he is not worthy of beating BJ Penn IMO.

i thought matt hughes's fight was boring as hell but still the best fight out the 3 main bouts (says a lot about the other 2 imo).




has penn given a silly excuse yet for his loss? (too warm? or some kind of infection?)

"I'd rather have somebody say, 'Let's not buy the Anderson Silva fight tonight because he knocks people out in two minutes,' rather than, 'He runs around like a jackass for five rounds,'" White said.

What is Silva's contract situation? Any chance him and UFC part ways? If so would the organization that has Fedor(forget their name) be interested in him? Being able to legitimately boast "we have the top 2 fighters in the world" would have to get them some more attention. Could Silva actually take on Fedor or is he simply too small and would get killed?

I am pretty sure he has one more fight in his UFC contract. I really doubt he fights for Strikeforce as he has claimed he wants to retire and be a trainer in Brazil.

The talk of him fighting a heavyweight is lol. He would get killed by Fedor or Lesner. You cant overcome a 70lb difference. It would be like UFC fights in the early days.

I'd settle for him doing the same thing he did this fight but with 1minute left he gets caught in another flying leg scissor heel hook

Those are fightmetric #s, compustrike #s tell a different story. I know looking at physical damage means nothing (Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt for example) but we all know BJ Penn doesn't bruise very easily and everybddy will universally agree that BJ hits harder then Edgar, but if he hits harder and landed 10 more punches to the face in the 1st round why did BJ Penn's face look worse than Edgar's? I think the compustrike #s were BS, and anybody who thinks BJ dominated the 1st round wasn't even watching the same fight I saw. Edgar was more agressive, dictated the pace and clearly did more damage to BJ then BJ did to him despite the supposed strike landing advantage that fightmetric shows.

I just think it's amazing that people can think BJ won the fight (although you aren't one of the) despite the body language the 2 fighters showed at the end of the fight, BJ looking totally dejected and resigned to his fight while Edgar was ecstatic knowing he had just won the fight. It looked exactly how Machida and Shogun looked after their fight.

And spare me the "watch the fight without commentary" crap, half the time I'm making fun of the commentary or correcting what they said in any sport I watch, I'm not an easily influenced person.

Several thoughts

Silva just signed an extension and has 6-7 fights left with the UFC

Silva would have a 10-15ish pound weight disadvantage against Fedor, not a 70 pound one.

Also, Clovis, you realize the 'early days' showcased how easy it could be for a skilled opponent to beat down a larger fighter?

The compustrike numbers are closer, but still have BJ winning the first two rounds. BJ was peppering Edgar and most of Edgar's shots in the early rounds were glancing or missing. BJ landed the more effective strikes as well, which facial abrasions are not an indicator of. He punished Edgar in the clinch when Frankie shot in or he slipped and countered nicely. BJ was slipping a lot of shots early and was not getting hit as much as you seem to think he was. Just because Edgar was bobbing around like a jackrabbit doesn't mean he was dictating during those rounds. He didn't dictate until the 3rd or 4th round.

So what do you think a fair betting line would be on Fedor/Silva? What about Silva/GSP? Silva/Machida?

These are pretty difficult imo.

Silva -280 v GSP @ 185

Silva -225 v Machida

Silva +200 v Fedor

Don't put much stock in those.

I already edited and changed them like 3-4 times immediately after I posted. These are tricky because it's hard to gauge exactly how dominant Anderson is when he's in lol fights like Maia.

I think he's a pretty big favorite over GSP. The one thing GSP has going for him is excellent wrestling, but Anderson has shown decent TD defense recently. GSP is on another level in terms of skill, but Anderson is bigger and longer and knows how to use his reach to frustrate a takedown.

I think Anderson is a medium favorite over Lyoto. I think they are very similar in some ways standing, but Anderson (when he feels like it) has a much better kill instinct, and also seems to have a better defense. Lyoto's awkward stance and non-traditional mechanics caught up with him against Shogun. He leaves himself exposed too often, and against fighters as quick as he is he's going to get burned.

I'd tweak all three of those a little bit. He'd probably be a slightly bigger favorite against Georges, slightly less favored against Machida, and a little bit more of a dog against Fedor.

^that.

All of this talk on here and on Sherdog made me rewatch the Penn/Edgar fight. I was wrong, Penn won the 1st round somewhat easily and won a competitive 2nd round. 3rd round I don't think either fighter did much damage and it's really tough to score. Both fighters had their moments in the 4th round, another round that's tough to score and the 5th I gave to Edgar. So I can actually see how some people could've scored it 49-46 for BJ. I think it was a 48-47 fight, and I actually thought that when the fight ended I expected to hear all 3 judges score the fight 48-47 and whoever won, winning by split decision.

So now I agree the 50-45 was absurd. I think watching the fight the 1st time around expecting BJ to totally dominate the fight I was skewed into thinking Edgar did even better than he actually did. HOwever I still think it's telling that it's obvious BJ felt he lost the fight even before it's announced Edgar won about a half second before Buffer said "and NEW" BJ began turning towards Edgar as if he knew what was coming and to congratulate him. Maybe Edgar hits a lot harder than people realize and BJ knew he lost by how his body felt.

so maybe -325 vs GSP, -150 vs. Machida, and +350 against Fedor or something.

I think a GSP and Silva fight would be really competitive, Silva's takedown defense looked incredible against Maia but Maia isn't 1/10th the athlete that GSP is, and his takedowns probably aren't 1/20th as good. Silva has always had problems stopping the takedown against fighters with good takedowns, Dan Henderson and Travis Lutter for example. The difference between GSP and Henderson is GSP will not deviate from the game plan and will not fool himself into thinking he can stand with Silva while Henderson decided to get into a Muay Thai match with Silva in the 2nd round and that went horribly wrong. I know it's obvious but that fight would come down to how effective Silva is at stopping GSP's shoot.

At 185 I think Silva should be about -225 vs. GSP at 170 I think it's near even.

Ugh, it still pisses me off that Henderson did that. I think he could have and still could beat him.

I Feel like Hendo could never stick to the game plan of just taking Silva down for 5 rounds. I doubt Hendo could finish Silva and at whatever point he decided to try to stand with Silva for more than 30 seconds the fight would be over.

.

Silva is really, really good at using his length by now. That's the biggest thing against GSP, he's going to be so much longer. GSP won't be able to wade in very effectively because Anderson is so long and so precise. His shots are going to have to come from farther out than he's used to by a good amount. Anderson is very good at using that distance.

Obviously he's still got a chance. Another consideration is that Anderson can finish the fight much easier than GSP can. GSP, for all his godliness, cannot finish very well, at least recently. Dan Hardy lasted 5 rounds with him. I think GSP wins by decision the large majority of times he wins. Silva can win the fight at any point when it's standing. Fighters who can finish always have an edge over fighters who can't.

I guess I think Anderson's a little better than you do. I think he's a bigger favorite over Machida because his defense and his kill power are better than Machida.

And I think he'd have a great chance against Fedor. I actually think, for stylistic reasons, that he'd have a much higher win% against Fedor than against Brock. Brock would just maul the **** out of him, and there's no way he stays on the feet for very long. Fedor could be susceptible to a true virtuoso striker like Anderson peppering him because he leaves openings when he attacks. Fedor charging in against Anderson would be amazing to watch, kind of an irresistible force meets an unmovable object situation. Strength vs. strength, and I think Anderson would have a slight edge. Of course, Fedor has an iron chin and amazing one-hitter-quitter power, and is Fedor, god of the underworld. He's also heavier and could possibly end up taking Anderson down at some point. He'd be a favorite. But just saying, Anderson is exactly the kind of fighter that would give him fits.

It's not this at all. I was the one that increased his odds against GSP. I'm just basing it on what I feel odds usually do when people jump weight classes.

I think Anderson is capable of beating Fedor, but I don't think the betting public would really think so.

Anderson would handily outstrike Fedor on the feet imo.

Anderson should be no more than +225 against Fedor.

What is Anderson going to be able to do that Cro Cop couldn't do? And Cro Cop superior takedown defense.

EDIT: I'm not asking this rhetorically.