Originally Posted by DannyOcean_
Ok, so my thoughts on the main event last night, with a little bit of time to reflect:
What we learned:
Shane Carwin's power is not a myth. If he hits you, you are in trouble. Anyone, anywhere. His GNP can be vicious as well.
Lesnar looked both weak and strong. If you have power, and you can hit Lesnar sqaure on the button, he won't react that well. He used the Tito shell and backed up, and was dazed.
However, he must have an iron chin. Carwin has KO'd every other UFC opponent in the first round, and he cleanly tagged Lesnar, hurt him, and then GNPed him viciously, and Lesnar survived impressively.
Carwin's gas tank is indeed very suspect. Lesnar was noticeably the fresher fighter in the second round and even at the end of the first round.
Lesnar did have a decided wrestling edge. The first shot was barely stopped by Carwin, and while he did a good job eventually stuffing it, it was clear Lesnar was going to be the more dangerous wrestler. Lesnar was likely only seconds away from a takedown at the end of R1, and easily got one in R2 (although carwin was gassed).
Lesnar knows submissions. That was an excellent technical set up. Watch as he softens Carwin up with strikes from the half-guard, the whole time he is looking for that grip. His right arm is in position deeply underhooking Carwin's left arm the whole time. Brock's left arm is not in position, so he lands a few shots and then when Carwin opens a little bit, he grabs the choke and transitions to mount, and then to side control on the opposite side. From there, it's already locked in and it's hard to escape that kind of choke from a guy like Lesnar (because strength is a factor, unlike some other subs). That choke is rarely used directly from side control, but you see high level grapplers set it up from half-guard and make that exact same transition.
What we did not learn:
I wouldn't call Lesnar's stand up terrible, as several ITT have. It's worse than Carwin's, for sure. But you're vastly overreacting to 20 seconds where Lesnar was tagged and hurt. Let's not ignore that he outstruck every fighter he's faced before this. He's dropped Mir, Herring, and Randy, and generally looked pretty good standing. He took a few blows from Mir and Randy as well, so his chin seems ok against non-Carwin fighters.
I wouldn't hop off the Carwin bandwagon either. He doesn't necessarily have terrible grappling or sub-defense, as he likely wasn't training for the possibility of having to use them. His gas tank is suspect, for sure. That's the kind of thing that can be improved, though.
In a rematch, I'd have no idea who to pick. I don't think Lesnar would get tagged so badly in the opening minute a second time around. I also think Carwin's gas tank would be better. I'd love to see it though. There's also the issue of Brock's layoff, illness and ring-rust. Was this Brock better than the old Brock because he was healed, or worse because of the ring rust, or about the same? Who knows...
Cain Velasquez is in trouble imo. Clear disadvantage wrestling. Clear athleticism/size disadvantage. Striking, who knows? He knocked out Nog but all the cool kids are knocking out Nog these days. I don't think there is a clear-cut edge in striking. I don't see Cain able to KO Brock or take a decision from him very often.
Rest of the card was awesome as well, but I feel like I've typed too much already.