Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnivore
Votto is exactly the kind of guy who is far better than he needs to be, but could get overlooked easily.
He's a 34 year old slugging first baseman. He only has 257 career home runs, and has only had 3 seasons with 100 rbi's, and only 2 seasons with 30 home runs. He's not known for defense and has never been a factor in the post season.
I actually think his chances are very slim, regardless of how good his .964 career OPS is.
Ditto for Felix Hernandez. Never pitched in the post season, only 162 wins at this point, could easily be a quick footnote.
See: Larry Walker, Kevin Brown, Brett Saberhagen, John Olerud, Dave Steib, Carlos Delgado.
But they have a shot.
If your in the mind of an avg. BBWAA you'd first think they like that Votto checks a lot of boxes (MVP, 6 times voted in the top 10, ASGs, and yes he has a GG which is a bit lol i admit, etc...all the old man ****). Then the old man negatives (which I highlighted though he did have 6 seasons where he hit more than 25 HRs...see how that gets turned around).
It does sucks that he's 34, and has been injured here and there in his career. So yeah I probably should rethink his path as more of kinda longshotish than 50/50. If his stats were coming from C, 2B, or SS his chances are much better.
His career H/A splits are awesome tho...to this point are about the same and in some cases better on the road so he didn't need to depend on CIN to boost his stats unlike Larry Walker did w/COL. Career wOBA of over .400, 25th career in WAR at the position and if he can get his **** together this year and repeat what he did last year he'll pass Olerud and be in the top 20...I guess my final case for Votto is if in 5 years he can get somewhat close to Bagwell (in HOF) on the power side, get close to 2,500 hits, and gets to that 75, 80 ish WAR, the BBWAA will probably vote him in...4th or 5th go around def. not first ballot.
Vintage Felix on the other hand is never coming back...we all know that but that doesn't mean he can't figure it out like Verlander and C.C. did as they got older. I kinda hope he does but it's going on to season 3 with this steep regression so he is running out of time (FA after 2019). At this point his career arc is just below Verlander, Greinke, and C.C. So if those three get in eventually from a numbers perspective Felix shouldn't need much but he needs to do something I agree.
He's currently sandwiched between Johan and Gooden in career WAR and is still only 33. Hypothetically if he figured it out and avg say a 3 WAR for 5 years that puts him with Tiant/Brown (not in) and Sutton/Drysdale (in). With a much better peak then all 4 of them that should get him in in the end w/BBWAA...prob 4th or 5th go around as well not 1st ballot.