Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary Wise
Disagree its a strawman because so many people nowadays are using WAR as a catch-all. It's better for predictive work than it is for assessing performance imo.
That's fair, but it seems to me he's not arguing against a catch-all, but that his own proposed adjustments (i.e. his little-used WAR-predecessor Win Shares) would make for a
better catch-all, when there are actually very good reasons why WAR creators consciously decided against doing things his way.
I'd also slightly tweak your statement to "it's better for predictive work than it is for assessing
outcomes." I think WAR does just fine at assessing performance. It's just that 2 equal individual performances can produce very different outcomes depending on circumstances beyond the individual player's control, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to base awards on what actually happened rather than what statistically should have happened.