Quote:
Originally Posted by diskoteque
I'm sure pitchers think that way but it is wrong because I don't think it's possible to throw a neutral EV pitch, which I think means avoiding volatility shouldn't ever justify throwing a minus EV pitch. I'm not same math wiz or anything so anyone feel free to jump in if I'm thinking about this incorrectly.
Like in poker let's say you're playing 1000bb deep in a 1/2 game and have 33% equity and are getting 2:1 odds to call. It is a neutral EV decision so calling and folding will yield the same result over the long term but you may prefer folding because it is a lot of money relative to your bankroll.
In my mind (maybe I'm wrong) win probability will increase or decrease with each and every pitch. "Pitching to the score" and grooving a fastball over the middle of the plate at 80mph will always be worse than throwing the most EV pitch from a win probability perspective. Because there's no neutral situations you never should prioritize avoiding variance.
yeah think there is a lot wrong here.
first off, the manager is doing what he can to get the win. so even if the pitcher is not thinking, or whatever you want to say, there will be defensive shifts that increase the probability of 1 run, while decreasing the chances of multiple runs
also, a more proper analogy would be calling off your stack in a MTT in a -ev spot because you are about to be pot committed when the big blind hits you and expect a more -ev spot
the pitcher throws a challenge pitch, rather than trying to paint the corner or get the guy to chase because you have a better probably of winning the game by getting a contact pitch rather than a 50 percent chance of a walk or whatever the odds may be
maybe you lack the idea that the highest ev pitch is a ball that will be put in play, rather than a pitch to maximize a strikeout
if it is a 1 run lead, than you will try to throw the perfect pitch, or shift the infield in with a guy on third, or whatever the case
every decision a manger/player makes in a baseball game should be towards trying to win, the statistics(era, strikeout to walk) give you a great idea of who is the best player (not wins) but ultimately wins is what you play for, so to disregard the stat, or show no critical thinking of how the pitcher and defense play differently based on game situation in a way to increase chances of win and disregard anything else, shows lack of knowledge of situational baseball.