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Old Yesterday, 12:32 AM   #1176
thebigeasy59
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Adding framing to WAR just totally frigged everything up. According to this, Luke Maile became a 6 WAR/600 guy last season all of a sudden, and is the Blue Jays position player WAR leader, despite 230 PA's. Russell Martin is now a no doubt HOF. Ryan Doumit's 2008 season went from above league average (123 wRC+! As a catcher!) to one of the worst seasons ever. -7.7 WAR for his career! Most catchers from before 2001 suck!
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Old Yesterday, 01:22 AM   #1177
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

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Originally Posted by IRAZERIVER View Post
Well he had to give up two years of FA to get that contract. I don't blame him for signing, but the team was basically holding him hostage. If he didn't sign this contract he would have been kept in the minors just long enough to not accrue a year of service time, thereby allowing white Sox to go year by year for 7 seasons.

I think 6/43 on it's own is fair. Giving up 2 years of prime FA is what skews the deal in favor of the team.

Yeah he could get hurt, but on the other hand his upside is that of Bryant, Harper, Arenado where he would make well over $43MM in 6 years AND command huge money once he hits the open market 2 years earlier.

The arguments about 300+MM are irrelevant to this discussion as those guys played out at least most of the 6 years before FA. The biggest problem with the current CBA is young players getting pressured into either signing team friendly deals or having their service time manipulated. To make matters worse they have little to no representation on the players union as it's made up of mostly veterans over the 6 year mark.
Yea I agree the system needs to be reworked. I don't think $43m is bad a first professional contract before you've stepped in an ML batter box but the manipulation that can occur obviously needs to be changed and I'm sure it will be. I actually think MLB would be good with a restricted free agency instead of the last arbitration year. This way they can get paid for longer. I have zero sympathy of the Bryce Harper's of the world being "underpaid" or collusion or whatever people go on about in here though. Jacoby Elsbury underpaid?

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Originally Posted by thebigeasy59 View Post
No, the two club options make it a reasonable endeavor for the white sox. Otherwise, they have no incentive to do this deal and would hold him down, save 3 weeks, and get an extra year of control and go year to year. He's still getting paid for the club options (if exercised), he's simply starting his career now instead of in a couple weeks time and locking in $43MM at little risk. The first club option is a season that they would have had him under club control for anyway as his final year of arbitration, since they would have held him down. Instead of 3 seasons league min and 4 seasons of arbitration, he now starts his career, guarantees a $43MM payday* without needing to worry about that stuff, and all it cost him was potentially hitting free agency a year later.

*The $43MM shatters a record for players with 0 service time, beating Kingery (6/24MM) from last season, and I think it ranks 2nd behind Andrelton Simmons in biggest for players with less than 2 years of service. This is a huge payday, and even an aggressive, record-setting projection through arbitration wouldn't net him much more of a guarantee.

My quick research suggests that if he matched the records for arbitration for each year, his three years of rookie contract, plus his 4 years of arbitration, comes to $65.1MM. This contract maxes out at $75MM over an extra season (plus an extra 2.5MM for every MVP!).

If he's so good that this becomes a poor deal for him in hindsight, surely to God he'll still be good one year later at age 29 and be paid handsomely for it.

If anything, this is reckless from the White Sox side, given precedents.
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Old Yesterday, 02:46 AM   #1178
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

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Originally Posted by thebigeasy59 View Post
No, the two club options make it a reasonable endeavor for the white sox. Otherwise, they have no incentive to do this deal and would hold him down, save 3 weeks, and get an extra year of control and go year to year. He's still getting paid for the club options (if exercised), he's simply starting his career now instead of in a couple weeks time and locking in $43MM at little risk. The first club option is a season that they would have had him under club control for anyway as his final year of arbitration, since they would have held him down. Instead of 3 seasons league min and 4 seasons of arbitration, he now starts his career, guarantees a $43MM payday* without needing to worry about that stuff, and all it cost him was potentially hitting free agency a year later.

*The $43MM shatters a record for players with 0 service time, beating Kingery (6/24MM) from last season, and I think it ranks 2nd behind Andrelton Simmons in biggest for players with less than 2 years of service. This is a huge payday, and even an aggressive, record-setting projection through arbitration wouldn't net him much more of a guarantee.

My quick research suggests that if he matched the records for arbitration for each year, his three years of rookie contract, plus his 4 years of arbitration, comes to $65.1MM. This contract maxes out at $75MM over an extra season (plus an extra 2.5MM for every MVP!).

If he's so good that this becomes a poor deal for him in hindsight, surely to God he'll still be good one year later at age 29 and be paid handsomely for it.

If anything, this is reckless from the White Sox side, given precedents.
While this is technically true the rays more or less forced Evan Longoria to sign a very team friendly deal 6 days after his initial call up.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=3353025

https://www.businessinsider.com/evan...ontract-2014-5

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anthony.../#4ab14a9c2b5a
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Old Yesterday, 05:16 AM   #1179
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

That is insane that Longoria didnt have a 7 figure salary until year 4 of a longterm contract.


Also dont have any recollection of the Yankees giving Drew Henson a 6/17 contract
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Old Yesterday, 05:35 AM   #1180
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Lets play ball! Excited to see Kikuchi!
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Old Yesterday, 05:49 AM   #1181
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

First batter of Kikuchi's career ends with a 1-unassisted putout at first.
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Old Yesterday, 06:50 AM   #1182
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Reports coming in, this is going to be Ichiro’s last game.
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Old Yesterday, 07:02 AM   #1183
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Hope he gets a hit. 0 for 2 so far.
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Old Yesterday, 07:30 AM   #1184
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Kikuchi looked solid, needs to be more efficient.

Lol Jay Bruce. Amazing.
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Old Yesterday, 07:48 AM   #1185
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Oh man! This turdhead announcer on ESPN (Eduardo Perez has been awful in the series as well) totally just David Tyree called a ****ing amazing catch by Healy on a foulout to end the 6th!
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Old Yesterday, 08:19 AM   #1186
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Holy ****. Well, the starting pitching will be competitive and the lineup has life, but the ****ing bullpen is going to be an absolute nightmare. Bottom of 7th is a perfect example. This ****ing guy is the high leverage right hander? And why the cock**** wasn't he ready to face Chapman? Lefty longman had done a lap already and Chapman, Piscotty, and Davis are due up
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Old Yesterday, 08:35 AM   #1187
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Ichiro is the blue balls champ of the night. Everyone so desperate to explode at a seeing eye single.


I was thinking I might have laid 1000-1 against him taking Trivino deep.
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Old Yesterday, 08:39 AM   #1188
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Ichiro, baddest hombre of all time. Since there isn't some dumb rule about not voting for somebody on first ballot any more. He should be another unanimous 1st ballot HOFer.
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Old Yesterday, 09:24 AM   #1189
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

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Originally Posted by txdome View Post
Ichiro, baddest hombre of all time. Since there isn't some dumb rule about not voting for somebody on first ballot any more. He should be another unanimous 1st ballot HOFer.

Agree, and what a moment watching him walk off the field for the last time. Good to see MLB make that happen, what an elite send off.
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Old Yesterday, 10:18 AM   #1190
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

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Originally Posted by IRAZERIVER View Post
While this is technically true the rays more or less forced Evan Longoria to sign a very team friendly deal 6 days after his initial call up.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=3353025

https://www.businessinsider.com/evan...ontract-2014-5

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anthony.../#4ab14a9c2b5a
Is this an argument against something in the post you quoted? For it? I'm lost.
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Old Yesterday, 03:24 PM   #1191
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

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Reports coming in, this is going to be Ichiros last game.
That's been the case for like 9 months.
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Old Yesterday, 03:35 PM   #1192
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Corey Knebel is getting his elbow examined. Craig Counsell says there is "reason for concern."


TJ surgery incoming.
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Old Yesterday, 05:49 PM   #1193
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Blake Snell gets 5/50.
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Old Yesterday, 08:59 PM   #1194
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

Cards extend Goldy pending a physical. 5/130. Contract will be signed officially Saturday. Seems like a fair deal for both sides
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Old Yesterday, 10:12 PM   #1195
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Re: MLB Off-season Thread 2018-19

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Corey Knebel is getting his elbow examined. Craig Counsell says there is "reason for concern."


TJ surgery incoming.
It's almost like they knew that when they started dancing with Kimbrel.
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