This seems really light, actually. They're paying him like he's a 6.5WAR player now who is already declining. This assumes $8MM/WAR and 5% inflation year over year.
Even at $7.5/WAR and a 3% growth instead of the typical 5%, 6.75 WAR covers the $430MM.
Mean projection on fangraphs is 8.85 WAR for this season. Using 8.5WAR and -.5WAR/year with 3% yearly inflation, I'm still getting $683MM player value over the next 12 years.
Arbitrarily declining him 1WAR/yr starting at age 33 for some reason, instead of the traditional .5 and still using 3% inflation shows a player value of $519MM.
This is a giant win for the Angels.
I get that they may want to move him from CF here eventually which will drop value, and there probably needs to be some kind of market correction for a player that's so far above everyone else, but he's still 27 for half this season, and has upped his OBP each of the last three seasons. Don't see any reason to even put him in decline for either of the next 2 seasons with these projections tbh.
Last edited by thebigeasy59; 03-19-2019 at 11:49 AM.