I always thought it might work if pitchers would throw a lob ball like 5% of the time - just to screw up the eye and head of the batter.
I think so, Tim Wakefield actually has one of the highest rated fastballs of all time according to advanced analytics despite that it was often jokingly referred to as 73 mph batting practice just because it was just enough of a change of pace off his knuckler.
I have never played organized baseball, so this is probably a dumb question - but why don't we see more "slow" baseball pitchers out there? I would imagine the number of people who can throw upper 80s is at least an order of magnitude more than guys that can paint the upper 90s. Seems like most potential pitchers would benefit from being able to add more deception rather than adding speed?
We sort of see this in cricket, where you have guys can can bowl really fast, but others that throw slower balls with more movement. Wondering why it's not as common in baseball?
I have never played organized baseball, so this is probably a dumb question - but why don't we see more "slow" baseball pitchers out there? I would imagine the number of people who can throw upper 80s is at least an order of magnitude more than guys that can paint the upper 90s. Seems like most potential pitchers would benefit from being able to add more deception rather than adding speed?
We sort of see this in cricket, where you have guys can can bowl really fast, but others that throw slower balls with more movement. Wondering why it's not as common in baseball?
hoping eddy or someone else who played at a high level will chime in as this is pure speculation
i think it's to do with the player funnels bringing people to the majors
much like a 6'5" lefty will be given an extra year to develop whereas the 5'10" righty with identical stats and issues doesn't get his A ball contract renewed, there's so many guys who can throw in the 90s that the soft tossers aren't going to be given that extra look
I can't find it now, but when the red sox collapsed in 2011, i remember reading this thing where one of the disgruntled players talked about the team creating that situation putting out a terrible pitcher because he was a power lefty at the cost of winning games - he was talking about andrew miller, who was out of minor league options and if they sent him down a rebuilding team would have claimed him
andrew miller eventually proved the red sox were right to have patience, but through 2011 he was arguably the worst pitcher in all of major league baseball - that year was his second consecutive year of having negative war, meaning he was considerably worse than if the team just put out any random guy from AAA instead
Andrew Miller kept getting chances because teams couldn't ignore that he was a lefty who could throw close to 99mph and if he solved his problems he'd be dominant
soft tossing pitchers don't get those opportunities, instead of being coveted what if prospects repeatedly given second chances, they don't progress up through the minors and find themselves out of baseball
with the thousands of players in development all of somewhat similar talents at various stages, the survival rate is limited - for every tatis jr who rakes at every level against guys older than he is, there are thousands just floating along
you should watch Knuckleball!
it deals with this a bit, how they want the power guys and people like Dickey and Wakefield wound up throwing slow by total accident - bad luck and fate made them knucklers - they never chose that path
Seems like sort of an value opportunity? Like if you were starting a rebuilding DI college program, seems like this might be the best way to get better quickly? You have your pick of the litter on slow-for-college arms? You only need a couple of those guys to have command and all of a sudden you have a decent rotation?
I don't buy that there's some huge number of soft-tossers out there that would thrive in MLB but aren't given a chance. The low minors are full of those guys and if they get people out, they'll advance just fine, like a Kyle Hendricks did. The problem is if you throw 85, you need pinpoint control and very strong offspeed/breaking pitches and a bit of intelligence about how to use them or you're going to get rocked by major league hitters. You have zero margin for error. Conversely, a guy throwing 100 mph can tell you it's coming and miss his spot by 6 inches and still get people out. The number of people with that skillset and the ability to learn some of the peripheral stuff is just way higher than the number who can overcome the limitations of low velocity.
interesting discussion. soon the league will be filled with 100-mph-pitchers, but if pitchers can 'improve' their discipline, then in theory, so can hitters.
Maddux was great topping out at 88mph because for whatever reason the umps gave him an extra foot on the strike zone. Maybe they were scared of getting yelled at by Cox.
I don't buy that there's some huge number of soft-tossers out there that would thrive in MLB but aren't given a chance.
yup. and no one grows up throwing offspeed stuff or knuckleballs. hard stuff with movement >>>>> soft stuff with movement.
greg maddux, with his 88-90 mph stuff, was a rare exception because he had ridiculous control, always kept ball down and had great late movement. his out pitch was throwing it at the hitter and having the ball allegedly (as txdome says) come back over the plate. almost impossible to hit with any power when he was on.
Seems like sort of an value opportunity? Like if you were starting a rebuilding DI college program, seems like this might be the best way to get better quickly? You have your pick of the litter on slow-for-college arms? You only need a couple of those guys to have command and all of a sudden you have a decent rotation?
That is a lot of what Oregon State did with walk ons. They'd take 86 mph guys who could pitch and then add velo to them. Most of their top dudes were top recruits, but Yeskie did a hell of a job rounding out the staff with guys he developed.
The biggest problem is command. Guys don't just hit spots all day. There are plenty of times a game where pitchers make mistakes. The harder you throw, the higher your margin of error. The guy throwing 88 down the middle is giving up a jack most of the time.
hoping eddy or someone else who played at a high level will chime in as this is pure speculation
i think it's to do with the player funnels bringing people to the majors
much like a 6'5" lefty will be given an extra year to develop whereas the 5'10" righty with identical stats and issues doesn't get his A ball contract renewed, there's so many guys who can throw in the 90s that the soft tossers aren't going to be given that extra look
I can't find it now, but when the red sox collapsed in 2011, i remember reading this thing where one of the disgruntled players talked about the team creating that situation putting out a terrible pitcher because he was a power lefty at the cost of winning games - he was talking about andrew miller, who was out of minor league options and if they sent him down a rebuilding team would have claimed him
andrew miller eventually proved the red sox were right to have patience, but through 2011 he was arguably the worst pitcher in all of major league baseball - that year was his second consecutive year of having negative war, meaning he was considerably worse than if the team just put out any random guy from AAA instead
Andrew Miller kept getting chances because teams couldn't ignore that he was a lefty who could throw close to 99mph and if he solved his problems he'd be dominant
soft tossing pitchers don't get those opportunities, instead of being coveted what if prospects repeatedly given second chances, they don't progress up through the minors and find themselves out of baseball
with the thousands of players in development all of somewhat similar talents at various stages, the survival rate is limited - for every tatis jr who rakes at every level against guys older than he is, there are thousands just floating along
you should watch Knuckleball!
it deals with this a bit, how they want the power guys and people like Dickey and Wakefield wound up throwing slow by total accident - bad luck and fate made them knucklers - they never chose that path
to add to this a lot of it is legit but a lot of it is also about covering your own ass. this happens all the time in sports. if you're a scout and are high on a high draft pick who is a tall lefty who throws gas and flames out you don't have to worry. get them to pick the short righty who throws 89 who you think is better and he flames out you might get fired.
you also can't try everyone out in the major leagues. without a doubt there are some minor leaguers who never threw hard who could have done well in the majors. but you can't let 100 of these guys pitch for the 1 or 2 that would work out. as another posted said the higher the velocity the more room you have for error.
jamie moyer was offered a job as a pitching coach in the early 90s and was still pitching in the majors in 2012 throwing slop. if he entered the mlb draft throwing the slop he had in the later part of his career and nobody knew who he was he would never get drafted.
it's the same with coaching. yes some coaches are imbeciles. but unless you have bill belicek job security if you can A)do the standard thing that lets you win a game 50 percent of the time or b) do something high variance and unconventional that wins 55 percent of the time guys are going to pick A because if they pick B and the 45 percent hits they might lose their highly paid highly coveted job.