Jumping on the Brewers bandwagon recently, my most pressing concern is how should Doug Melvin handle Corey Hart? Without a doubt he's running above expectation this year, but my question is by how much? I'm looking for a way to quantify that and looking for some help from the fine minds of this forum.
Fangraphs did a great article on the HR Derby contestants here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...y-contestants/
That gives you some idea Hart has had luck on his side this season, but I'm still looking for to what degree. Looking at his numbers on Fangraphs a few things jump out at you. His HR/FB is 19.5% that seems really high, considering his previous high for a full season was 13%. I found a website that listed 10% as the major league average for 2009, nothing that lists the average for 2010 (unfortunately fangraphs doesn't provide this average underneath like they do for many other stats). To me thats the most telling stat, but I wonder how much should I consider his ISO? Hart's ISO has always been above league average. So it would make sense his HR/FB% would be higher than say Juan Pierre, or am I misunderstanding that statistic?
Hart's BaBip is a little above league average, Hart .309, LA .299. He's actually striking out a little more than he has before, and his contact % hasn't gone up, in fact its dipped a little bit. One encouraging sign is for a 28 yr old player, his walk rate has increased over the past 2 years. It had no where to go, but up. Still you couple that with his O-swing % going down significantly, from being way above league avg to below league avg. You look at a hitter who looks like he's figuring some things out at the plate.
Right now, I'm guessing Hart hits like 35+ HRs this year and I believe thats high for him, but is he a guy that could routinely average 25+? Another thought I'd like to have with his strikeout % going up this year. Does anyone know where I can find statistics for how many of his home runs were hit with 0 strikes, 1 strike, 2 strikes? I'm thinking he could be a guy that isn't comfortable hitting with 2 strikes, whereas a guy like Pujols who sees more pitches I would think his 2 strike home run totals would be higher than most power hitters.
Last edited by Thundercat32; 07-17-2010 at 01:56 AM.