Quote:
Originally Posted by candybar
Why are we talking about the regular season? Top 5 VORP for each player in the post-season:
3.7 / 2.8
3.2 / 2.8
3.1 / 2.7
2.9 / 2.7
2.9 / 2.5
Lebron on the left obviously and not really close.
I've been over this in this very thread. VORP is not a good metric in post-season, because teams don't all play the same # of games so their minutes aren't consistent. For example, a player on a team that sweeps everyone will have FAR fewer minutes than someone on a team that goes to game 7 every game. Yet sweeping everyone is obviously the preferable outcome.
Also, sample size. We have more regular season games than post-season, and a less biased sample (not all teams from same conference).
Quote:
In case you try to dismiss this as an artifact of Lebron playing more or something
Lol, that's exactly how you calculate VORP -- it includes minutes played so teams that play more games are going to have players with higher VORP, and this isn't necessarily a good thing. "an artifact"? what?
Quote:
, Top 5 by BPM:
18.2 / 14.3
14.0 / 13.8
13.1 / 12.8
11.0 / 10.9
11.0 / 9.6
Lebron on the left again and not that close.
This is true, LeBron is ahead here. But you do realize you're looking at numbers accumulated from a ~15-20 game sample size for each post-season, right? And *
the same 3 or 4 teams across all games*. Do you see a problem, statistically, with that? Google "bias" in statistics for a primer. And remember what everyone has said about quality of that conference for LeBron's whole career.
Quote:
In case you try to talk about how MJ's teams had more success in the post-season (which they didn't at their peak - if you only look at seasons where either was as good or better than MJ's 5th best season, they won the same number of titles and Lebron was more successful in seasons where they didn't title) , here's how their teams did in the regular season at their regular season best:
12.0 / 11.6 (Lebron: 66-16, MJ: 47-35)
11.8 / 10.9 (Lebron: 58-24, MJ: 50-32)
10.1 / 10.1 (Lebron: 45-37, MJ: 55-27)
9.8 / 9.8 (Lebron: 66-16, MJ: 61-21)
8.9 / 9.5 (Lebron: 50-32, MJ: 57-25)
That's interesting. Because you know what? BPM is artificially inflated for players on teams with high efficiency differentials. See here (
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html) under "The Team Summation". Meaning that since LeBron played on a better team in his top BPM years (vs. Jordan), his BPM numbers are artificially inflated higher through no contribution of his own; it's just because he was on a team with a better point differential. Given the 19 win difference in that 12.0 vs. 11.6 season, for example, without doing the explicit calculation, Jordan was almost certainly ahead in "raw" box numbers. [
EDIT: Jesus. I just realized you flipped the numbers. This is VORP with MJ on the left and LeBron on the right. And the order of their records is reversed to make it look like LeBron had the higher numbers. Jordan is
ALREADY ahead here, before you take into account the artificial BPM inflation by LeBron playing on a team with higher efficiency differential. This is nowhere close.)
Also, we probably shouldn't cherry pick so much that we're filtering out all championships won that weren't in a player's age 23-26 seasons. That's completely nonsensical. Are you even listening to yourself at this point? You are honest to god a cherry picking machine, and I've never seen anything like it. You can create any narrative you like with this nonsense.
Quote:
At Lebron's statistical best in the regular season, he led otherwise bad teams to win tons of games. At MJ's statistical best in the regular season, he put up good numbers, but his teams didn't do quite as well despite generally having considerably better support around him.
Where do you get this "considerably better support" narrative? In MJ's ~best season, he had a 23 year old Pippen and Grant, yes, but their numbers were actually worse than LeBron's Mo Williams and Delonte West in his best season. They weren't that good yet. LeBron also played in an absolutely awful Eastern Conference while the Bulls had teams like the Pistons, Knicks, and Cavs (Bulls were a 6 seed that year). LeBron was accumulating his stats in a historically terrible conference. The Dwight Howard led Orlando (3 seed) won the East that year FFS. 2 seed was an old Boston team. This narrative that LeBron had far worse support is completely wrong. I feel like you're compensating for LeBron team hopping and creating superteams, yet still failing? That's the only explanation I can come up with.
Quote:
Also, if you're going to go with this peak thing, let's not forget that during MJ's second three-peat, he put up a mere 4.9 total VORP with an average of 8.0 BPM and a high of 2.2 VORP and 8.7 BPM. Which are great numbers, but simply not worthy of comparison to Lebron. Lebron's never had a playoff VORP as low as MJ's highest during his second three-peat in a season he made the finals. His playoff BPM was lower than MJ's best during this period exactly once in the past 11 years.
Where are you getting those numbers and why are you only looking at playoffs (~20 game sample size each year)? That's completely nonsensical. As I said, playoffs only includes something like 15 to 20 games and they play against 4 teams total. It's like the most biased statistical sample possible. Although Jordan's playoff VORP in those seasons was 5.9 total (not 4.9 as you said), so I'm not even sure that's what you're doing.
LeBron's playoff VORP was higher (in part) b/c MJ and the Bulls completely dominated and swept teams, playing fewer games, so MJ got fewer minutes.
And this:
Quote:
Lebron's never had a playoff VORP as low as MJ's highest during his second three-peat in a season he made the finals. His playoff BPM was lower than MJ's best during this period exactly once in the past 11 years.
is such a jumbled mess of cherry picking I don't even know where to start. "VORP as low as MJ's highest during his second three-peat in a season he made the finals while using the bathroom 3 times and eating a pop-tart before the game". WTF man.
Quote:
If you want to argue this peak thing, you can't rest your argument on post-peak MJ coasting to titles on a stacked team - you have to consider what their best accomplishments are at their best.
Yeah, and you can't filter out all of the failures either. Like LeBron losing to that 2011 Mavericks team. This is what's known as "cherry picking". You keep saying "stacked team" for MJ. DO YOU REALIZE LEBRON SPECIFICALLY WENT TO MIAMI TO FORM A SUPERTEAM OF 3 ALL-PROS. Like what? Just because they didn't perform up to expectation doesn't mean you can retroactively rewrite history. That just means they sucked relative to how good they should have been.
Quote:
Lebron beat a 73-9 warriors team with a concussed Kevin Love and an overrated Kyrie,
Yeah and a gimped Curry. GS's best player and (2 time reigning) MVP that year. Yeesh. Slightly more relevant than a mediocre Kevin Love head boo-boo.
Quote:
both of whom were huge defensive liabilities as his sidekicks, becoming the first player in NBA history to lead all players in all five categories for an entire playoff series. His other two wins came against Duncan/Parker/Ginobili/Kawhi/Pop and Westbrook/Harden/Durant. Lebron has the top playoff VORP season on record and more impressively has 5 of the top 6 seasons in history. Nobody in the history of the game has even been all that close to as good as Lebron at his best.
You had me until that last sentence. Can you explain the implications of all this happening in a historically terrible Eastern Conference? And why when LeBron reaches the finals he has lost 6 out of 9 times? Do you think his stats may be a teensy bit inflated by playing relatively terrible playoff teams in ~75% or more of his playoff games? You know him playing terrible competition in the East is super consistent with him losing 6 out of 9 times once he reaches the finals, right?
Quote:
It's also important to realize that despite Lebron already being substantially better than MJ in the post-season, this understates the difference between the two at their best. In elimination games, Lebron widens the gap further - his numbers improve substantially to a completely absurd super-human level, while MJ's look more like his numbers generally do. I will leave it as an exercise to the reader what their numbers look like but they are not close.
Yeah man, Jordan was almost never on the team that was about to be eliminated. Because he never let his team get to that point. I'll leave it as an exercise what that does to you argument, particularly since LeBron played a lot of elimination games in a historically terrible conference.
Last edited by Matt R.; 02-12-2019 at 12:57 AM.