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Originally Posted by lenC
Think this has been through this thread so many times so I would rather not go over it. It was my understanding that both sides consider them close enough in terms of personal $tats.
Yes, close. But Jordan is definitely a bit ahead when considering peak seasons. Stats act as the first filter. My thought is "close enough" to move to tiebreakers, roughly speaking.
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Team MJ: Thinks that 6-0 in the finals takes the tiebreaker. This in itself isn't unreasonable behavior, though I don't think being 3-6 is exactly as shameful as some of you paint it out to be.
Not 6-0, at least for me, but 6 championships. Don't care about "losses in finals" because any loss in the playoffs is still a null when it comes to the season goal. Championships are the ultimate measure of team success, and basketball, being a team game, has the ultimate goal of winning championships. Jordan has 6. LeBron has 3. Massive difference. Would be irrelevant if LeBron had Jordan beat on stats soundly (or some other valid, objective argument), but he doesn't. Jordan is actually a little head, in fact.
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Team Bron: Thinks that The Bieber Theorem takes the tiebreaker(TBT applies to many things, but ironically not Bieber himself). Where in time, not only players in the league but also coaches, GMs and everything part of the NBA operation continually moves towards an equilibrium to solve the game and any similar output in the future of hoverboards and fancy shoes is superior to that of the past.
There are a bunch of things wrong with this method. It is not unreasonable to assume that ON AVERAGE all of this improves over time. But that doesn't mean you can say (ability in year x) > (ability in year y) is true for all x > y. There are yearly fluctuations and variance. Also, basketball cannot really be a "solved" game because rules change and strategies change. The equilibrium is constantly shifting. Rule changes and strategy changes do not make one era better than another. Just different, putting different demands on the coaches and players.
Also, human evolution flat out does not occur at any appreciable level (at least in context that the proponents of The Bieber Theorem suggest) in a time span of ~30 years. Improvements may come from improved equipment (this can improve very rapidly. Technology advancements. Not human genetics.) or training methods (this is overblown. Sports science was extremely well developed by the 90's). When most people consider GOAT they aren't thinking "this guy had better weight equipment".
Also, even if we allow the Bieber Proponents that "basketball" and its players improve year over year, that gives no quantitative measure of HOW MUCH they have improved. If you can't even estimate that then how can you say player 1 is better than player 2 separated by 25 years? You can't.
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This could be countered by TTT(The Timemachine Theorem), which means that MJ starting in 2003 would have the superior career. But I don't like that, as it is impossible to tell and then it could even be any of the other olds like Wilt. It's like saying that Usain Bolt isn't the fastest of all time since if Julius Caesar were born in 1986, he would have run a 9.4s 100m. I mean, maybe.
There are scientific methods that can estimate how much improved athletic performance is due to inherent athleticism vs. better "environment" (like, say a track in sprinting). It's actually *mostly* due to better environment.
If we transport peak LeBron and MJ to 2050, they're going to get that better environment. Same if we transport Usain Bolt to future track surface in 2050. When people discuss GOAT they aren't talking track surface, basketball court, or weight equipment. They're talking inherent ability.
So Bieber method fails and doesn't make sense to use, UNLESS two players are so close to be indistinguishable, and we have reason to believe the game has improved in x years, then it can act as a tiebreaker.
This doesn't apply to LeBron b/c 1) Jordan slightly, but significantly ahead on stats. 2) Much better team success. 3) NBA is approximately as good on average as it was in Jordan's era (plus more teams/roster spots, talent dilution, to counter any slight improvements). 4) No one is talking about if LeBron has better weight equipment or training methods. Unless 1) to 3) are all a tie.
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The 35 was completely made up, an astute observation, my friend. I said that being at 35% meant a 100% GOAT, being at 25% might be 99% for all you know, so I don't think you had enough information to infer what you did.
And then 1% is 97%. Who cares if it's all completely made up? This is kinda what the LeBron side does. Just makes up completely arbitrary arguments to support the LeBron narrative, while completely ignoring the most concrete measurables when determining GOAT.
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Also, I would not count people like Skip Bayless into these polls, this includes anyone here who uses arguments as: "soft cast in the presser", "kyrie literally bailed him out", "disappears in the final minutes", "3-6", "no killer instinct", "didn't kill his father", et cetera. I encourage all the trolling but I can't consider them as serious arguments.
So your completely made up method of 35% consensus means 100% only works when certain people are allowed to vote and others are left out?
Sounds like your completely made up method may not be very useful lol.