I like Nate, but his numbers were laughable. At the quarterfinals, Brazil was something like 45% to ship the whole thing where Germany were somewhere between 8-10%. It was really, really, really dumb.

no, it's not

I mean, this game is as much an outlier as him saying they were 80%+ to beat Chile and were outplayed for the first ~60 minutes and had to go to penalties.
They drew Mexico, barely beat Chile/Colombia as "huge" favs according to nate, then got a beatdown.

lol at anyone defending Nate on this, people knowledgable about soccer have been saying Brazil were overrated since the beginning of the tournament, I am one of them. They barely edged past Chile (and didn't particularly deserve to win) where Nate had them at 80%+ and then got bashed by the first really good team they encountered.

This isn't some unforseeable circumstance, Brazil have been largely **** all tournament and have had people preaching their downfall all tournament and the bookies odds have been hugely lower and this is an "outlier"? Like, 7-1 is an outlier, no question about it, but Germany should have been big faves in this game. Not a single person reading this would bet Brazil at 3.00 if we could rewind and do this again.

This isn't so much LOL NATE as LOL attempts to apply simple statistics to soccer. The sport does not work that way. But I agree that Nate should have known that with such massive discrepancies between his model and the odds of leading books, that something was badly wrong.

Also he posted this LÖL defence which includes this utterly ******ed sentence:

I haven't checked possession, but shots in the first half were 10-2 germany, 9-1 germany shots on target. Like obviously germany eased off in the second half, they were fearing for their ****ing lives if they buried Brazil 10-0. This is why naive application of stats to soccer is a doomed enterprise.

I remember last World Cup as well, all the non soccer watchers here had heavy money on Germany to beat Spain in the semi final after Germany had handed out 4-1 beatings to Argentina and England among others. Germany were a very good counterattacking side with a lot of pace and exploited space left by the teams they'd played earlier. In vain did we try to explain that a team masterminded by Xavi in his prime would be a completely different beast. Soccer is very rock-paper-scissorsish, some strategies look incredible against certain opposition and then run into a brick wall against others. Trying to do things with "ELO rankings" is totally useless.

I'm absolutely stunned. Never seen anything like that before in my life. Still completely shocked.

Wow.

I was going to post a pic making fun of Scolari but honestly he doesn't deserve it. In the huddle after the game I could see him saying to the players "this is my fault". He took responsibility to the press and he took time out after the game to congratulate Klose on the World Cup scoring record. He seems like one of the good guys.

So who's the stupid team who paid a million billion £ for Sideshow Bob?

Brasil, decime que se siente ... a Messi lo vas a ver, la Copa nos va a traer.

Wow

Is there a translated version of that song in the video?

good one

It is a very big shame, when they made such a fuss off this WC they were already with the trophy in their hands until they had to fight a really strong country like Germany - well deserved

After the match, he gives the trophy to a German fan.

awesome ^

serious respect for that man

There were 2,142 murders in Brazil last night. This is ~50 more than normal.

for that mustachioed man.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...by_murder_rate

Wow, so many Brazilian cities near the top.

And

DETROIT!

Absolutely great.

if Qatar somehow manages to keep the WC in 22, they will give up 35 goals in group stage, and it will be less embarrassing than Brazil on Tuesday

So like Germany won by like a whole touchdown?
Dayum.