That's fine because I never bet before just like you guys never played ball before.

But the point remains that Lebron is bad at meeting expectation because gamblers make more betting on his peers like Curry, Jokic, Kobe or MJ - they met the preseason favorite expectation far more than him and he lost with favored rosters far more... He's also nowhere near the goat standard of never losing with favored rosters like preseason favorites (4 losses in 7 years for Lebron), or homecourt advantage (3 losses), or top seeds (6 losses with 1 or 2 seeds), or Finals losses (the most ever)...

Furthermore, no one thought rookie Lebron would give up in Year 7 and team-up with opponents thereafter... So these are all clear-cut examples of underachieving expectation that are much worse than his peers, and nowhere near the goat standard of being undefeated with favored rosters and winning the most organic way ever - only MJ built single-digit rookies into champions and never lost with favored rosters.

.



^^^ Preseason odds and result for every season of MJ & Lebron thru 2020

And we know he missed expectation in 2021 and 2022

Lebron is simply BAD at meeting expectation compared to his peers or the goat standard because his skillset produces weak chemistry that underperforms favored rosters

Fallguy, describing in detail how players with assisted rates in the 75-90% range make them a role player:

Also fallguy, stating that Michael Jordan’s assisted field goal rate of literally 85-90% is scoring in the best, most fundamental way possible (off-ball).

Does fallguy have the intelligence and extremely rudimentary mathematics ability to see the contradiction here? Stay tuned.

Would you say that your inability to score points and overall middling basketball career, despite being 6’7, was due to your lack of skill and athleticism? Or was it that you had no idea what to do when you were on the court because you don’t understand basketball at all?

.

All Losses By 1st Options as Preseason Favorite Since Odds Began in 1985


LEBRON.............. 2011, 2014, 2015, 2021
SHAQ.................. 1999, 2003, 2004
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004
BIRD'................... 1985, 1987
MAGIC................ 1986, 1989
EWING'............... 1994, 1995
DIRK.................... 2007, 2008
DUNCAN'............ 2006
BARKLEY............. 1995
ISIAH................... 1991
PIPPEN'................ 2000
KG........................ 2009
CURRY................. 2019
KAWHI................. 2020
KD........................ 2022
TATUM................. 2023



Losses with Homecourt Advantage

LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2023


Losses with Top Seeds (1 or 2 seed)

LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019


Losses with All-Star teammates

LEBRON.............. 2005, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019


Losses in the Finals

LEBRON.............. 2007, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008
CURRY................. 2016, 2019


4-0 sweeps or record losses

LEBRON.............. 2007, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2023
KOBE................... 2011

MJ has no losses with favored talent, while Lebron underachieves favored talent the most among any player in the last 25 years, and we know why - his high-scoring dribbling or point guard skillset has a high volume of unassisted buckets that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles, thereby producing zero teammate development, weak chemistry and perennial losers with every cast.

You just don't understand college basketball, because you never played Division I or in the "Dean Dome" at North Carolina like I did:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-kIxu8fzbk


Did you see me for the first 3 seconds of the video? I was on the end of the bench to the immediate right (his right) of the guy relaxing and stretching his feet out..

So I played in the exact same gym that Jordan played in, and I saw his jersey in the rafters along with Worthy and Perkins.... We also ran Dean Smith's offense at FIU - we called it "North Carolina", literally...

Accordingly, I can tell you that Jordan played in a "system" where literally no one dribbled in the half court, which made everyone a role player with extremely high assisted rate - no one averaged over 20 ppg.... This team philosophy in college allowed Jordan to have the fundamentals and skills to be a great off-ball player in the NBA and almost certainly the greatest possession-closer or assist target of all-time.. Again, Phil and Tex figured that the triangle would "get MJ to pass" and shut down his scoring, but they didn't realize that he would easily maintin his goat scoring because his shots had always been highly-assisted, especially in college.

That’s awesome that you got to play in the same gym that Jordan had played in. Would you say that you maximized your teammates assisted field goal rate when you were in the game? Is that good or bad, I forget. I remember it was bad when LeBron assisted his teammates, putting them in that range, but it was good when Jordan was in that range and the most fundamental way to score points. So both good and bad, I guess, depending on the player and the argument you’re trying to make.

Did you score a lot of points in the UNC game? It must have been a lot. I can only imagine the numbers you must have put up in college since you’re using your playing experience to argue that you know more about basketball than Phil Jackson and Tex Winter.

.

All Losses By 1st Options as Preseason Favorite Since Odds Began in 1985


LEBRON.............. 2011, 2014, 2015, 2021
SHAQ.................. 1999, 2003, 2004
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004
BIRD'................... 1985, 1987
MAGIC................ 1986, 1989
EWING'............... 1994, 1995
DIRK.................... 2007, 2008
DUNCAN'............ 2006
BARKLEY............. 1995
ISIAH................... 1991
PIPPEN'................ 2000
KG........................ 2009
CURRY................. 2019
KAWHI................. 2020
KD........................ 2022
TATUM................. 2023

Lebron lost the most ever as the preseason favorite or in the Finals.... ...

He also has more losses with all-star teammates, homecourt, top seeds, sweep losses, and record losses than Kobe, Curry or MJ, so he's a "loser" compared to them and they're "winners" compared to him.

Losses with Homecourt Advantage

LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2023


Losses with Top Seeds (1 or 2 seed)

LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019


Losses with All-Star teammates

LEBRON.............. 2005, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019


Losses in the Finals

LEBRON.............. 2007, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008
CURRY................. 2016, 2019


4-0 sweeps or record losses

LEBRON.............. 2007, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2023
KOBE................... 2011

MJ has no losses with favored talent, while Lebron underachieves favored talent the most among any player in the last 25 years, and we know why - his high-scoring dribbling or point guard skillset has a high volume of unassisted buckets that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles, thereby producing zero teammate development, weak chemistry and perennial losers with every cast




Similar to my math credentials, my hoops credentials destroy yours as well, which is why I'm annihilating you guys in this debate with superior insight on all sides that you guys don't have - it's not really a debate and more like me just informing you guys of the facts.

So accept that Lebron turns teammates into spot-up shooters - he literally decreases all his teammates' assists and has weak chemistry with every team, while jumpshooters increase teammates' assists and produce better chemistry/teams, thereby being the superior skillset.

It's quite simple and all the numbers are there to show Lebron's brand of "spot-up role imposition" craters teammates and underachieves the odds compared to his peers... In addition to underachieving the odds compared to his peers, Lebron's weak chemistry underachieves favored talent regularly by losing the most ever as the preseason favorite or in the Finals, while also having 9 losses with all-star teammates or homecourt.

The media doesn't realize this and mistakenly says that he elevates teammates when he literally craters anyone that isn't already an elite shooter like Mo, Kyrie or Korver.. History shows that he developed zero young players in 21 years and has a long list of weak fits because high-scoring ball-dominators have high volume of unassisted buckets that leave teammates standing around in spot-up roles - they're the only position with this affliction, so they're the worst skillset in basketball.

Three triple doubles in a row…

High-scoring triple-doubles by perimeter players have a high volume of unassisted buckets (ball-domination) that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles - this yields weak teammate development, chemistry and perennial losers with every cast.. The spot-up roles also lower teammate assists across the board, so the team cannot become a high assist team with a lot of ball movement like the teams that beat Lebron (Nuggets, Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Magic).. The common thread in all of Lebron's playoff losses for the last 10 years is deficits in team assists.

It matters that high-scoring ball-dominators have a weak brand of ball because it underachieves favored talent more than any other skillset.. Specific examples of underachieving favored rosters include Lebron having the most losses ever with the preseason favorite or in the Finals, and more losses with homecourt, all-star teammates and top seeds than Kobe, Curry or Jordan.. And more 4-0 sweeps/record losses as well.

Finally, the game logs from 2020-2025 show that it's bron-ball against the weak teams and AD-ball against the top teams... People forget that unlike jumpshooters such as Curry or MJ, Lebron cannot drop 40 while the ball moves, so he lacks sufficient brand at carry-job volume to beat top teams and therefore needs all-time scoring help.. Specifically, in the Finals, Lebron needs an equal-scoring partner to attract equal defensive attention, so he never defeated max defensive attention (never carried scoring load in Finals), and he also never carried weak help over top teams (never beat a top 5 SRS team with weak scoring & efficiency from a sidekick)... But sure meh, 3 triple-doubles in a row..

I agree fallguy; you’re sure showing us. Just like your math credentials (calculus and business classes. Wow!), your basketball credentials are unheard of.

Just to clarify though: how many points and what were your numbers for the UNC game? And what was your assisted fg% (you’ve emphasized this is really important, I believe)? I don’t mean to try to force you to brag; I just think it would be useful, and help the validity of your argument, if you were to show just how good you were at basketball. That way when you say you played basketball, and therefore you know more about basketball than Phil Jackson and Tex Winter, it has more credibility.

Also, sorry but remind me again, is it good or bad for a player to have an assisted fg% in the 85-90% range?

Three triple doubles in a row (oldest player to ever do this obv) and three wins in a row with him doing it

You are missing quite extraordinary sporting history imo (that will be referenced and debated for decades to come), and there can’t be much of it left.

Lebron can't beat top teams like that and never has, so it's AD-ball against the top teams.

And no one cares about the play of a 39 year old because it's nothing compared to him at 29, or any other all-time great.. It might be the best ball-domination that we've seen for a 39+year old, but it ranks about 150th all-time otherwise (or worse).

Also, the league has evolved (or devolved) into a format where a player with that many shots or touches cannot be held down - 20% of the league will get 30/10/10 if the ball is put in their hands to run today's standard "down-hill" and spaced floor format.. The beginner format achieves pretty stats but gets exposed in international formats, which now produce the best players... People don't realize that Lebron, KD and Curry are great because they didn't grow up in today's format, but they're the last of American great players because the beginner format that Adam Silver/Lebron cooked up CANNOT and DOES NOT produce great players (and allows anyone to dominate).
.

Stats classes too and many finance classes.... Compared to you, my credentials are unheard of and a different level in both hoops and books





Same as Bronny, and that's good enough for the league in today's beginner format and the soft game that Lebron and Silver created (and which no longer produces the best players in the world).





We all know more about basketball than they did because it's 2024 and we have the benefit of 35 years of hindsight and modern data/information - they didn't even know what "assisted rate" was or have that statistic, so they thought the ball movement of the triangle would muzzle MJ and stop him from being scoring champ!!!... lmao!!!.. What a bunch of fools amirite???... ... MJ proceeded to lead the league in scoring for 7 of 7 seasons in the triangle.. smh





It's bad if the player's assisted rate was increased to the 85-90% by a ball-dominator, while their normal game and max production capability occurs at lower assisted rates..

So it's bad to turn Bosh's 60% assisted rate to nearly 80% - that reduced his production capacity and therefore the team's... The higher assisted rate gives players a more spot-up role than their game can handle or typically has, which prevents teammate development or good fits/chemistry, and therefore underperforms favored rosters... This includes Lebron losing more times with preseason favorites than anyone in history, and also in the Finals.

Oh jeez stat classes too? And many finance classes? That’s intimidating. All the smart kids in my class took calculus. I can tell you’re really good at probability and statistics too based on your posts in this thread, so it all checks out.

Wait a minute. The rest of your post is fascinating and full of advanced knowledge but this statement is difficult to parse. Bronny only played one year of college ball. And it doesn’t look like his team, USC, played North Carolina that year.

What was your stat line when you played UNC fallguy? You can answer directly with numbers.

I don’t think many people without massive dysfunctional egos would claim to “know more” about basketball than a coach who has won 11 NBA championships, just because nba.com is tracking a new statistic that involves dividing two numbers. In my opinion of course. But I didn’t play basketball against UNC so… wait I forgot that you haven’t answered what your stat line was in that game. What was your stat line? Just for transparency of course, and to show us how much advanced knowledge of basketball you must have. Don’t worry about coming off as bragging — lay it on us.

Can you show how you calculated what a player’s normal game and max production capability is, and what their base optimal assist rate is?

You can use your calculus and statistics skills to answer this if you want, but it’s important to show your work.

You never went to grad school or played any sport at any material level... I did, hence me educating you on the game and how to interpret the stats.

Be grateful that you're learning how things really work from an analyst and player, as opposed to believing the journalism majors on TV





Love's max capability was 26/13/4 and his assisted rate was 55-65% at this production level, but it rose to 80% under Lebron at a much lower production level

No calculus needed.. We can do this with every player - we can see what their normal assisted rate is at their max production capability, and then see how the assisted rate increases alongside Lebron while the production craters.

Lebron simply reduces everyone's assists and increases their assisted rate, so it's statistical fact that he imposes spot-up roles and the ensuing weak teammate development/chemistry underperforms favored rosters more than anyone in history.. (i.e. Lebron has more losses with preseason favorites than anyone in history, and also more Finals losses.. He also has more losses as the favorite, all-star teammates or top seeds than Curry, Kobe or MJ)

Btw, I appreciate you guys for making all these arguments so vetted and rock solid - the most vetted post is post #22810

You’re probably right. Want to take Tien’s bet? The offer is still on the table from me — I’ll arrange sending my university transcripts to a neutral arbiter.

I don’t feel it’s appropriate to make any statements about my educational background with an open bet on the table. I wouldn’t want you to lose out on this easy money opportunity. Calculus, finance classes, and stats are very advanced. You’re a shoe in. I feel bad for Tien even offering to bet you on this.

Oh yeah I’m taking notes!

Sorry, maybe I wasn’t clear but I asked for you to show how you calculated overall maximum productivity compared to assisted fg% and to show your work. You obviously have to adjust for team level effects. You can’t just list a player’s numbers and state that’s his theoretical maximum, or that his numbers dropped due to a change in assisted fg% without adjusting for other effects using standard statistical techniques. That’s really dumb, but you knew that because you’ve taken stats.

You could plot the function of maximum productivity vs assisted fg% after adjusting for confounding factors and find the global maximum. I know, super basic calculus but still calculus technically. Nowhere near your level of course. But, this is all assuming you actually determined that function in some analytical way and didn’t just make it up. Which I’m sure you didn’t. You took calculus! And stats!

But anyway, I’m actually less interested in the above. All that is trivially easy for someone with your math background and I’m sure you just haven’t gotten around to posting your analysis yet. I’m mostly curious what your stat line was when you played against UNC. Could you answer that question?

I'll give credit to Tex and Phil because they had the right objective of elite spacing and ball movement to maximize chemistry and teammate performance, but they were dead wrong that this approach was somehow a problem for Jordan's game..

Again, there was no way to describe the fact that Jordan's buckets were "assisted" - that terminology didn't exist back then, so the insight on Jordan was only that he scored goat amounts and therefore didn't pass enough.. Phil and Tex were a lot like today's media and fans that ignore the concept of assisted rate as well..

These are just facts - they were right about pursuing ball movement, but wrong about Jordan's game - they didn't fully understand it and ultimately underestimated him significantly... And it's interesting because if Jordan was a massive ball-dominator with low assisted rate, then the triangle WOULD have been the massive struggle and muzzled Jordan like they anticipated.

Set up the bet.

But there's no need for transcripts.. You just need to post your Masters degree.





There's a massive sample of Lebron's entire pool of teammates - they all saw increases in their assisted rates and corresponding declines in production.

So the data is definitive - it's statistical fact that Lebron reduces his teammates playmaking (APG), and increases their play-finishing (assisted rate), and this reduction to spot-up roles reduces his teammates' production.





Post your hoops stats.. Then I'll post mine

^^^ this kind of stuff never happened for Jordan (underachieving expectation), yet these catastrophic losses and sweeps with all-star teammates are considered ADDITIONS to lebron's imaginary goat case

Accordingly, there's never been a bigger fraud in sports history... Unlike Jokic, MJ or Curry, Lebron never learned the chemistry to win with normal rosters of 1 franchise player and therefore never learned how to win... Instead, he opted for super-teams of 3 franchise players, which is talent-based winning and this means the excuse for every loss is needing more talent.. It's pathetic.

Hey Tien, if you’re still reading I am being serious. If there is interest and room for a reasonable bet I’ll get in on it too.

I insist we send in the transcripts fallguy, that way the actual math courses can be compared. Transcripts will include the degree conferred as well, of course.

What? You’re just making a statement here. I am asking you to show how you analytically determined that the increase in assisted rate CAUSED a decrease in production, and that it wasn’t a team change effect. Or the effect of playing with the highest career scorer of all time (thereby using up possessions). You know, incredibly basic statistical adjustments that even a monkey could do.

I already told you I didn’t play against North Carolina so my point total and the rest of my stat line was precisely zero.

Now it’s your turn: what was your point total and stat line when you played against North Carolina?

It isn't about math courses because a 6th grader can be explained assisted rate... It's about providing insight into the numbers and using the numbers to validate the eye test, which requires broader intelligence in addition to the understanding of math.

For example, the whole reason that I brought up assisted rate is because these debates always start with me saying that Lebron dominates the ball too much, and you guys respond by saying that Lebron doesn't dominate the ball... So then I statistically-prove that he does by using stats like Lebron's assisted rate on field goals and time of possession (hold-time), or teammates' assists, assisted rate, and hold-time.. I corroborate Lebron's impact on these stats by showing the impact of similar players like Harden, Luka, Westbrook, or SGA - they lower teammates' assists as well because their own skillset is low-assisted (rare assist targets) with too many unassisted buckets that leave teammates standing around in spot-up roles..

Again this is a meld of the eye test and the aforementioned stats that indicate degree of ball-dominance.





It's like you're asking me to show you that 35 MPH is faster than 25 MPH, lol..

Basketball is like physics, so there's an inverse correlation between a change in assisted rate and assists - if a player's assisted rate increases (more spot-ups), then their opportunity to get assists declines and their assists decline (lower production)... Their scoring also declines unless they're already elite shooters that can handle the change in shot allocation to more of a spot-up role.

To summarize, Lebron reduced everyone's scoring and assists by turning them into spot-up shooter (increasing their assisted rate), as they stand around while he scores a high volume of unassisted buckets (low assisted rate, rare assist target)... Otoh, jumpshooters like Curry or Jordan were great assist targets with healthy assisted rates, so they increased everyone's assists, thereby allowing high-assist teams and the best brand of ball ("dynasty-ball").

fallguy,

The humiliation you suffered from not being quite as good at basketball as some of those other guys who could dribble and pass better than you must have been quite intense for you to go on a decades-long campaign like this. Instead of writing all this nonsense that merely points to the depth of your suffering and trauma, why not talk more about what happened? Who did what to you? Must have been some deeply degrading **** given your behavior.

This is the bet when you said Matt R. didn't even do algebra.


Now you are bitching out and demanding a master's degree in mathematics? What's next? The field's medal?