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La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga 09-10 Discussion Thread La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga 09-10 Discussion Thread

05-02-2010 , 04:57 PM
He would have been if he didn't move, not that it would be diffrent at Lazio though
05-02-2010 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kitaristi0
I think the commentator here said he has only played three times for Lazio before today. Maybe it was six, dunno.
4th league game today
05-02-2010 , 05:44 PM
Gotta say we were too dumb/inexperienced whathaveyou to win the CL spot. Hopefully we'll own the UEFA League and draw some easy match for the qualifying round for a change.

And obviously shiiiiiip Schalke not champs

Two away games @ Hamburg next year makes up for losing the Berlin away game I guess
05-03-2010 , 01:04 AM
Sorry Ajax guys, ****ing brutal. Run better next year.
05-03-2010 , 07:24 AM
Tnx, hope so. We certainly let the players know they did well and showed them our respect when they arrived back in Amsterdam.

05-03-2010 , 07:58 AM
That's awesome

Ajax fans are awesome.
05-03-2010 , 12:17 PM
Hleb is linked to Bayern and Valencia, maybe as a part of the rumoured Villa deal?
05-03-2010 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kitaristi0
lol Lazio fans OH NOOOOO banner after Inter goal.
That was actually quite amusing.

But I still think Lazio fans have no balls. WTF cheer for your own squad. While I'm 100% sure Inter would have won anyway, at least cheer up your squad.

Chanting " we will break your bones if you win " is not something I would sing to my squad.
05-04-2010 , 02:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL
Sorry Ajax guys, ****ing brutal. Run better next year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigindiemen
Tnx, hope so. We certainly let the players know they did well and showed them our respect when they arrived back in Amsterdam.

I may write my first blog article in a while with something more detailed, but I did some calculations on just how badly you ran. I'm not sure if you'll like them or not, it's pretty brutal. I was thinking it was like losing on the river because an underpair hit a set, but it's much much worse.

As you may know, I've studied the relationship between goal differential and points and found that goal differential explains points extremely well and as far as I can tell there is no evidence that differences are due to anything other than luck. At the very least I'd say that luck is the major factor when it comes to how many league points you get for a given goal differential.

Using data from the Eredivisie for every season since 1995-1996, the first using the 3-1-0 points system, I estimated how much variance there is as far as how far off teams are a given year in points compared to expectation according to goal differential. Because one team performing above expectation makes another a bit more likely to be below, I also had to estimate how strong that effect is.

According to these calculations, if you take a team with a goal differential of +86 and another at +40, there is a 1 in 4581 chance that the +40 team will get more points than the +86 team. In poker terms, you didn't just lose to a one-outer with one card to come, it's more like you did that twice in a row and then lost a 60/40 as well.

Other than stuff like plane crashes, I think this Ajax team is the unluckiest in the history of football.
05-04-2010 , 02:57 AM
I meant to add that in this case it was mostly Twente running on the biggest luckbox in history. They finished almost 17 points above expectation, that's 3.6 standard deviations! A team with a GD of +40 will finish with 86 points or more only once in 6,207 parallel universes. Ajax finished a little under 7 points below expectation. A team with a goal differential of +86 has a little over a 1 in 15 chance of finishing at or below 85 points.
05-04-2010 , 03:34 AM
Re-open the blog!
05-04-2010 , 03:51 AM
Jared,

I have a feeling that using only goal difference Ajax, because of the way they play, will almost always look like they are running below expectation. Do you have any evidence to back that up or reject that?
05-04-2010 , 06:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL
According to these calculations, if you take a team with a goal differential of +86 and another at +40, there is a 1 in 4581 chance that the +40 team will get more points than the +86 team.
That's sick. Good stuff man
05-04-2010 , 06:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
Jared,

I have a feeling that using only goal difference Ajax, because of the way they play, will almost always look like they are running below expectation. Do you have any evidence to back that up or reject that?
Yeah feeling says that the numbers are flawed because Ajax often just hammers the weak teams.
05-04-2010 , 07:20 AM
However, Ajax also hammered Twente (3-0) and PSV (4-1) at home.


Anyway, I agree that those numbers can't be 100% right but his point (albeit exaggerated) remains:
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL
Other than stuff like plane crashes, I think this Ajax team is the unluckiest in the history of football.


Hopefully we'll completely obliterate Feyenoord on thursday and we'll at least have a ****ty cup to show for this great season..

Maybe a quick 0-1 can shut their fans up because I hope I won't have to listen to them singing "nothing at all in Amsterdam" for too long -.-
05-04-2010 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL
I meant to add that in this case it was mostly Twente running on the biggest luckbox in history. They finished almost 17 points above expectation, that's 3.6 standard deviations! A team with a GD of +40 will finish with 86 points or more only once in 6,207 parallel universes. Ajax finished a little under 7 points below expectation. A team with a goal differential of +86 has a little over a 1 in 15 chance of finishing at or below 85 points.
While all of this may be true I'm also going to say that your model is probably not accurate when lots of games are 8:0 type games since you probably weight each goal scored with too many potential points

Some random rumors:
Steve McClaren to coach Wolfsburg next season (supposedly a lock, will be presented as the coach next week)
Laurent Blanc to coach France after the WC

Van Nistelrooy + Kuranyi not going to play the WC for their teams

Last edited by clowntable; 05-04-2010 at 12:04 PM.
05-04-2010 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Camoranesi exit certain
Tuesday 4 May, 2010
Mauro Camoranesi will definitely leave Juventus this summer after eight years in Turin, according to his agent.

The 33-year-old Italy international will be part of an extensive clear out at the Stadio Olimpico as Juventus bid to rebuild their squad.

Speaking to calciomercato.it, Camoranesi's agent, Sergio Fortunato said: “The cycle at Juventus is finished.

“At the end of the season, I will meet Alessio Secco and we will try and reach an agreement to find an arrangement that will suit Mauro.

“For now, we are not speaking about teams. I will begin to move in the next 10 days when the season more less finishes everywhere in Europe to see if there is a solution for the good of Juventus and Mauro.

“We are talking about a player who will play at the World Cup. It's obvious that it will take a good team [to persuade him to leave], otherwise we will honour the contract with the Bianconeri,” he concluded.
.
05-04-2010 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Buffon: 'I'd move to England'
Tuesday 4 May, 2010
Juventus goalkeeper Gigi Buffon has given the clearest indication yet that he might be leaving Turin this summer in a move to the Premier League.

The World Cup winner has been repeatedly linked with a transfer away from Juventus despite denials from his agent Silvano Martina.

Earlier this month, La Gazzetta dello Sport claimed that Juventus were not discouraging offers for their talismanic No 1.

Buffon has also hinted at leaving, although only if the club want to cash in on him to fund a summer spending spree.

Speaking to Sky Italia, Buffon said: “If I had to leave, I think that England could be my destination. My desire to leave Juve is equal to that of the club to transfer me.

“Everything that concerns me will be agreed with the club. At the moment, there is nothing but there are two weeks left and something could still happen.

“We'll see if we decide to continue together.”

Buffon's comments will no doubt alert the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United who are both looking for a goalkeeper.

Last week, Buffon said he wouldn't consider a move to Manchester City because they are not regular competitors in the Champions League.
.
05-04-2010 , 01:19 PM
Oh yeah and Adler also out for the world cup so technically we don't have a #1 goaly right now. Most likely it'll be Neuer and I guess Butt will be nominated as the #3 (or maybe Rost dunno)
05-04-2010 , 01:57 PM
So how many will Barca score tonight?

4-0 hopefully

Pretty empty Nou Camp due to the weather apparently

Last edited by kevin21; 05-04-2010 at 02:02 PM.
05-04-2010 , 02:24 PM
3 or 4 anyway.
05-04-2010 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by clowntable
While all of this may be true I'm also going to say that your model is probably not accurate when lots of games are 8:0 type games since you probably weight each goal scored with too many potential points
I should have mentioned that this is regression analysis, not using the model where I give teams an offensive and defensive ranking and then do simulations. So it's looking at how teams historically have done with a given goal differential.

As I said by far the biggest factor was Twente running hot. Their goal differential tells us that they were a good team this year and their number of league points have them as one of the greatest of all time relative to the rest of the league. Their +40 GD is tied for 28th best over the last 15 years while their 86 points are 3rd best. They just won a ridiculous number of close games.
05-04-2010 , 02:40 PM
They won 14 games by just 1 goal, I think.

-.-
05-04-2010 , 02:43 PM
Tenerifeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

1-1
05-04-2010 , 02:48 PM
pretty big **** up from puyol, posession have to be around 80-20 lol

      
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