Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 99 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Bump for Mike Smith / Offensive Coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons. 4th and about 2 inches on their own 29 in OT.

Instead of the obvious QB sneak for a first down, they run a counter play to Turner, handing it off 5 yards in the backfield. Of course, he's stuffed.

Saints win in OT. gg

Last edited by JinX11; 11-13-2011 at 05:31 PM. Reason: slow pony

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11-13-2011 , 05:32 PM

#2452

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by gusmahler

If you plug the data into the Advanced NFL calculator:

Down 3, 1:50 left in game. Ball on own 10 yard line = 0.11 win probability

Down 6, 1:50 left in game, ball on own 35 = 0.27 win probability.

Kicking FG is MUCH better than going for it.

Am I stupid or does this not imply the opposite?

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11-13-2011 , 05:32 PM

#2453

natediggity

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lol, here comes SE with their coaching prowess

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11-13-2011 , 05:35 PM

#2454

AngerPush

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Originally Posted by EdBratz66

Atlanta onside kicking down a fg with 4 minutes left. Not sure the logic there.

Pure fear of Drew Brees. I don't like the call, but I don't hate it either. Don't see this as obviously stupid either.

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Originally Posted by EdBratz66

Atlanta coach is an idiot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JinX11

Would it help if I told you Matt Ryan is 2-9 career in 3rd or 4th and inches on sneaks? Completely results-oriented thinking by you.

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11-13-2011 , 05:37 PM

#2455

JinX11

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Originally Posted by AngerPush

Would it help if I told you Matt Ryan is 2-9 career in 3rd or 4th and inches on sneaks? Completely results-oriented thinking by you.

Absolutely, no - it would not. Also, source??

Also, not results oriented. If Burner makes it, it is still a bad play to run on 4th and 2 inches on your own 29. That would be results-oriented thinking.

Last edited by JinX11; 11-13-2011 at 05:44 PM. Reason: 2-9 - small sample size?

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11-13-2011 , 05:38 PM

#2456

Riverman

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Atlanta going for it was fine, that playcall was awful.

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11-13-2011 , 05:42 PM

#2457

JinX11

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Originally Posted by Riverman

Atlanta going for it was fine, that playcall was awful.

Yes and yes.

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11-13-2011 , 05:43 PM

#2458

natediggity

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the playcall was fine

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11-13-2011 , 05:48 PM

#2459

vhawk01

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playcall was better than the decision. i love going for it as much as the next guy who grew up playing Madden but I think punt is def better there.

Never punting is probably superior to the strategy employed by ANY current NFL team, but its not like its actually optimal.

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11-13-2011 , 05:50 PM

#2460

natediggity

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Originally Posted by AngerPush

Would it help if I told you Matt Ryan is 2-9 career in 3rd or 4th and inches on sneaks? Completely results-oriented thinking by you.

the 2+2 SE nerd brigade is gonna mock you. just an fyi.

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11-13-2011 , 06:09 PM

#2461

cookieb

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For some reason NFL coaches keep kicking to Devin Hester

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11-13-2011 , 06:10 PM

#2462

Pudge714

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vhawk01

No way never punting is better than strategies currently employed by NFL teams. Perhaps never kicking FGs is, but for instance, going for it on 4th and 10 at your own 20 is so much worse than punting 4th and 1 at midfield.

I think it is funny that so many people are appealing to Mike Smith's authority, when most coaches wouldn't do what Mike Smith did.

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11-13-2011 , 06:11 PM

#2463

ChrisV

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I think if you're worried enough about your short yardage offence that you feel like you have to call plays like that, then you shouldn't be going for it.

Edit: Maybe short yardage isn't quite the right term but you know what I mean. 3rd/4th and inches situations.

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11-13-2011 , 06:14 PM

#2464

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by Pudge714

Well, for over 2/3 of the football field, punting is bad (although no one punts inside opponents 30, so its more like half). Its possible that for the deep 1/3 of your own territory, going for it is SO BAD that it overwhelms all those bad decisions to punt, I guess. I'm a little skeptical though. How MUCH worse is the first one, compared to the second one, exactly? And how common are each of those occurrences.

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11-13-2011 , 06:18 PM

#2465

natediggity

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I'd love to see the collective minds of SE coach an NFL team. I think 2 wins would be generous.

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11-13-2011 , 06:22 PM

#2466

Pudge714

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Punting from midfield is often the correct decision.

nate,
Game management is like 5% of an NFL coaches job, that is the only thing they could do better than NFL coaches, in every other area they would be disasters.

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11-13-2011 , 06:24 PM

#2467

natediggity

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Originally Posted by Pudge714

nate,
Game management is like 5% of an NFL coaches job, that is the only thing they could do better than NFL coaches, in every other area they would be disasters.

agreed. it's just silly hearing people talk about decisions costing a team 1% win equity or whatever.

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11-13-2011 , 06:25 PM

#2468

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by natediggity

I'd love to see the collective minds of SE coach an NFL team. I think 2 wins would be generous.

Bear in mind that most of the things you LOL at 2p2ers for wouldnt ACTUALLY be the decisions that would be made, since they are just kneejerk reactions. The principle is that many of these decisions actually are solvable and if it was their actual JOB to be correct about them with about 20 seconds or whatever to decide, they would make the correct decision.

Me being wrong in this thread about punting is more a symptom of me getting $0 to think about NFL punting decisions than it is a reflection of 2p2s ability to correctly assess them.

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11-13-2011 , 06:25 PM

#2469

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by natediggity

agreed. it's just silly hearing people talk about decisions costing a team 1% win equity or whatever.

If thats true, then why wouldnt they win 7.9-8.1 games, instead of 2?

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11-13-2011 , 06:26 PM

#2470

EddyB66

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I don't like giving the ball to a rb 7 yards deep from that formation when I need 2 inches. Play action roll out have a few options at least.

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11-13-2011 , 06:27 PM

#2471

natediggity

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Originally Posted by vhawk01

If thats true, then why wouldnt they win 7.9-8.1 games, instead of 2?

because their base would be 1 or 2 wins. no chance 8 wins is the baseline for a 2+2 coached squad.

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11-13-2011 , 06:29 PM

#2472

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by natediggity

because their base would be 1 or 2 wins. no chance 8 wins is the baseline for a 2+2 coached squad.

I dont get it though....if the things we are quibbling over have almost no impact on games, how come we manage to lose 6 more than an average team?

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11-13-2011 , 06:30 PM

#2473

natediggity

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Originally Posted by vhawk01

I dont get it though....if the things we are quibbling over have almost no impact on games, how come we manage to lose 6 more than an average team?

because there is a ton more to coaching than the things you are quibbling about?

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11-13-2011 , 06:32 PM

#2474

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by natediggity

because there is a ton more to coaching than the things you are quibbling about?

But no one really complains about those things, or has any misconception they could do them any better. You dont see a whole lot of posts in this thread saying "Man Johnson sure looked poorly coached in the week proceeding todays game" or something. Or whatever else it is that head coaches actually do, like give pressers.