Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan42
Any adjustment needed for the chances of a miss on the ensuing 47yd XP? Probably negligible difference given good conditions + Butker, but could be a concern in different circumstances.
Still probably few if any cases where you'd rather go for 2 from the 17.
The calcs change, but the result does not change much.
Let's go with 9ers winning 77% of the time if KC makes 47 yd xp. If Butker's success rate is 80%, then 9ers will win 0.8 * 0.77 + 0.2 = 0.816.
So KC should try for the 2 pt conversion if their success rate exceeds (1 - 0.816) = 0.184. I don't see anything close to that from the 17 yd line, so xp is likely best.
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With a 5 yard penalty, that would require Butker to kick a 38 yd xp. I'd put success rate at 92%, which makes 9ers win chance 0.9 * 0.77 + 0.08 = 0.773.
So KC should try 2 pt conversion from 7 if their success rate exceeds (1 - 0.773) = 0.227, which seems reasonable.