Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 885 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Yeah that's really really bad if it's true. Even though I still don't think it's an enormous mistake to have taken the ball first, it's horrible to not at least have a crash course on the rules with the captain that's going out for the coin toss. Although Shanahan could have just told him to go ahead and take the ball if they won it.

The great thing is that it's at least an argument now, whereas before it was a gigantic benefit to go first.

You're welcome btw for the :13 second game changing the rules, even though no one had a problem when Bardy did it to Mahomes 3 years earlier.

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02-12-2024 , 04:45 PM

#22102

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by Hellmuth was right

not going for it in regulation was even worse than not going in OT imo, the risk is essentially the same in either scenario, you lose the game if you dont convert, but the reward is much greater in regulation because you win the SB 95+% of the time if you convert.

SF's 3rd and 4 after the two minute warning was basically for the game. If they convert and stay in bounds they get 2 downs where the Chiefs can't stop the clock.

So they kick a FG with like 20-25 seconds left. This version of the Chiefs aren't driving down for a FG with that much time and no TOs.

It sucks for SF settling for a long FG. But I think it's the right play if they can't get a first down running the ball.

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02-12-2024 , 04:47 PM

#22103

suzzer99

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I don't think Reid would have gone for two on the second TD if SF had scored a TD. It's just not in his DNA.

But man if he did, what an exciting finish either way.

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02-12-2024 , 05:05 PM

#22104

jwd

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

Nah going for it on 4th and 4 was correct. Even making the field goal, which was not close to a guarantee, doesn’t put them in a great spot when Mahomes has four downs, two timeouts, and two minutes. Reminded me of the Bills spot against the Chiefs in the playoffs. Thought they should have gone for that, too. But that was a closer decision because they were trailing by 3.

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02-12-2024 , 05:10 PM

#22105

Hellmuth was right

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

SF playcall on third and 4 should have been made with 4 down territory in mind. Chiefs did the right thing by bringing everyone because even a td doesnt kill them

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02-12-2024 , 05:10 PM

#22106

PokerHero77

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Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen

Really feels like the only reason people are shitting on Kyle is cuz of how it played out but if you defer, chefs score a td, you score a td, then chefs get a walkoff field goal people are shitting on you for deferring

Which would be another strike against Kyle because a TD-TD-FG sequence should never happen.

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02-12-2024 , 05:16 PM

#22107

kevstreet

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Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Which would be another strike against Kyle because a TD-TD-FG sequence should never happen.

Correct. Only the FG-FG-FG sequence backs this argument but just noticed this was said already.

Last edited by kevstreet; 02-12-2024 at 05:26 PM.

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02-12-2024 , 05:19 PM

#22108

GusJohnsonGOAT

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

The NFL OT rules have always been stupid as ****. You can make fun of college for being a gimmick, but at least it has been far more fair.

I'd prefer them to play like a 20 minute period (figure out the appropriate time to mitigate an advantage with getting the ball first) with best score winning and then do something like college to break it if necessary. I don't want some ****ing coin toss deciding the biggest game of the season. It's a lot better than it was but still can be improved.

And the regular season OT rules are a joke because 10 minutes just means the first team can bleed 7-8 minutes of clock. Happens way too often.

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02-12-2024 , 05:20 PM

#22109

PokerHero77

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Originally Posted by madlex

The scenario where going first helps is the one where both teams score a FG.

Or both teams don't score, at the risk that the 2nd team gets a free roll to end game with FG.

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02-12-2024 , 05:27 PM

#22110

PokerHero77

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

When I was watching I was thinking it would be perfect for an "INT or bust" defense, that is ignore tackling and go for the ball, conceding the score if the 9ers are dumb enough to run into the end zone with the ball. At least you have chance to tie in regulation.

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02-12-2024 , 05:34 PM

#22111

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by Hellmuth was right

SF playcall on third and 4 should have been made with 4 down territory in mind. Chiefs did the right thing by bringing everyone because even a td doesnt kill them

Yeah if they run it on 3rd down, make the Chiefs burn a TO, then convert a 4th and 2 or whatever, it's basically a win or a tie at worst if Moody misses.

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02-12-2024 , 05:35 PM

#22112

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by jwd

Yeah I'm not saying they shouldn't have gone for it on 4th, just saying as it played out if they convert on 3rd (or 4th if they took it), it's freeroll for the game. And Moody seemed locked in.

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02-12-2024 , 05:37 PM

#22113

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by GusJohnsonGOAT

The NFL OT rules have always been stupid as ****. You can make fun of college for being a gimmick, but at least it has been far more fair.

Playoff NFL OT rules are more fair than college now.

In college there's a huge advantage to going second (unless you're Deion, and then the press gives you a pass becuase they're in love with you).

In the NFL it's a much closer decision.

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02-12-2024 , 05:38 PM

#22114

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by PokerHero77

100%. I was thinking why not send all 11 players? The 9ers probably wouldn't go down at the 1, because you'd still be leaving Mahomes some time.

But if the 9ers had run it on 3rd down, then converted a 4th down, they rs could bleed the entire clock and kick a FG. So in that case it would be 100% correct for them to not score.

I was really worried SF would do what KC did to the Eagles last year and run out the clock before kicking a FG. They were really close.

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02-12-2024 , 05:40 PM

#22115

jwd

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Yeah the current NFL OT rules are reasonably fair. Im sure the league office tried to get something as close to 50/50 as possible with the coin toss. Was probably too harsh on Shanahan after thinking about it more. Still think I’d lean toward getting the ball second.

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02-12-2024 , 05:41 PM

#22116

jwd

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

Eagles tried to do this and McKinnon correctly went down at the 1. They didn’t do a good job of selling it. Think even the 49ers would know to get down.

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02-12-2024 , 05:42 PM

#22117

suzzer99

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My idea was that if the first team to get the ball in OT scores, the 2nd team has to beat (not tie) that score. So the first team can win with a TD+2. But if they miss, they lose to a TD+1. Still probably a big advantage to going first and going for 2 though.

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02-12-2024 , 05:46 PM

#22118

Black Aces 518

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The math is really clear that the first TD shouldn't go for 2, and was posted above in the thread. You lose basically every time that you fail, but don't win every time that you convert. So given a 50/50 2pc, you lose more often than you win, whereas if you kick and the other team goes for 2, you lose and win equally often.

And the Chiefs already said that they had discussed it and knew before the game that they would go for 2 on an OT answer TD.

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02-12-2024 , 05:48 PM

#22119

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by jwd

Eagles tried to do this and McKinnon correctly went down at the 1. They didn’t do a good job of selling it. Think even the 49ers would know to get down.

If they had run it on 3rd and made the Chiefs burn a TO, then converted on 4th down, yes, totally correct not to score.

But if they converted on 3rd, the Chiefs still had two TOs, let's see:

2 minute warning
- 5 seconds to run third down play (convert in bounds)
- TO
- 4 seconds to run first down play (McCaffrey off tackle or something)
- TO
- 4 seconds to run second down play
- 39 seconds of clock running
- 4 seconds to run third down play
- 39 seconds of clock running
- 3 seconds to kick FG

= 22 seconds left at the kickoff

Hmmm, I think Mahomes mystique might have bought us them not kneeling at the 1 there. But it would have been a mistake imo.

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02-12-2024 , 05:49 PM

#22120

Onlydo2days

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Originally Posted by jwd

Still think the calls on 2nd and 4 and 3rd and 4 and not going for it on 4th down were worse.

I just did a tree on excel.

Touchdown percentage: 22%
Field goal percentage: 16%
Two point: 50%

When 49ers make a FG on first drive:

KC TD: 25%
KC FG: 20%

When 49ers score a TD on first drive:

KC TD: 30%
2 Pt: 50%

It slightly favored the 49ers but my scoring percentages are probably low all around given how tired the defenses were. Also, didn’t factor in turnovers. Think my KC percentages after a score are probably low, too, when they have four downs to work with.

yep the regulation call to kick the FG was way, way worse

being overshadowed by the talking heads today looks like

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02-12-2024 , 05:51 PM

#22121

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by Black Aces 518

And the Chiefs already said that they had discussed it and knew before the game that they would go for 2 on an OT answer TD.

Holy **** that would have been amazing.

I bet we save that Hardman play for the 2pt conversion in that case, and run something else to try to score the TD.

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02-12-2024 , 06:09 PM

#22122

housenuts

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Originally Posted by esad

When SF didn't go for the TD I knew the game was likely over and was screaming at my TV. It's all or nothing at that point. Have some ****ing balls. I also would have gone for 2 if they scored a TD because you know KC will.

i don't see any team ever doing this. aside from dan campbell of course.

Last edited by housenuts; 02-12-2024 at 06:17 PM.

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02-12-2024 , 06:15 PM

#22123

housenuts

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

so first team gets FG, the second team has to get a TD?

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02-12-2024 , 06:28 PM

#22124

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by housenuts

so first team gets FG, the second team has to get a TD?

Yes. If first team gets a TD+1, the second team has to get a TD+2. If the first team gets a TD+2, they win (which may be the route every team tries to go).

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02-12-2024 , 06:30 PM

#22125

madlex

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Originally Posted by suzzer99

Holy **** that would have been amazing.

I bet we save that Hardman play for the 2pt conversion in that case, and run something else to try to score the TD.

Not going for two is the equivalent to ICM suicide in poker.

Especially in a situation where between both teams the last 7 drives all resulted in scores.

If we assume the PAT is automatic (thanks to Moody we know it isn't) and the chance for the other team to score on the next possession is only 50% (which is probably way too low considering how tired the defenses are and from how far the kickers converted) and we assume that we win it at 80% probability if the other team doesn't score after our PAT, going for two is still the correct play if we convert that 40% of the time. Average 2pt conversation rate is 47.5%.

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