Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan42
Hmm I still think the "clearly correct" crowd needs to show their work, I'm not saying it's wrong but it's not remotely a slam dunk. The 3rd/4th down play calls were definitely awful as a whole, but I feel once you've gone with that 3rd down run and wound up with 4th & 3 it's a super meh spot to go for it.
Make it <2 yards to go, or make it goal to go from the 3 and I think it becomes a very easy spot to go. As it stands you have the odds of not converting, parlayed with the chance of converting, killing more clock and then having to kick a FG anyway (with the Rams now more easily able to go on a leisurely FG drive to end the game).
Yeah it's obviously not a slam dunk. As you noted it seems most people assume that converting on 4th assures a TD, which it obviously doesn't. I got it 20% chance of TD, which really is not that good as the game had not reached that level of desperation.
The way I see it, it basically depends on expectation of DAL getting the ball again only once, or twice. If they get the ball only once, then FG is correct. If they get the ball twice, then it is less clear but going for it may be correct.