Defense would never see it coming


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Really, no Cardinals talk...

If I was with Holly Sonders, my mind wouldn't really be on football either.....

Kingsbury’s revolutionizing the league

Lions down 6-7 1:20 left in 1st half. Chargers ran on 1st down to bring up 2nd & 8 from their own 3. Lions have 3 timeouts.

Patricia doesn't call one. That's really bad, right?

I'm gonna go with no. Maybe slightly bad.

It's pretty bad I feel

Yeah, I’m going to go with pretty bad too. Just forfeit if you’re that scared of giving up a 99 yard, 1:20 drive

How many timeouts do the chargers have? Intuition says Lions calling the timeout is probably good if chargers have 0 timeouts, much less good if chargers have 3.

1:20 is an interesting cutoff though. The breakeven point is probably somewhere around there.

Looks like it was no more than ~1:13 remaining (next play started at 0:34) so that actually changes things enough to push it to clearly bad imo. Getting the ball back with ~20 seconds + 1 timeout is clearly quite a bit worse than getting it back with 1:00 and no timeouts.

Plus if you call the TO, Chargers should be running on all 3 plays, but there's a reasonable chance they won't and you can gain a bonus timeout.

Failing to convert probably better than making the fg.

McVay had Gurley running the ball and Kupp blocking downfield up 27-9 w 3 min left.

It's bad no matter how many timeouts the Chargers have. Horrendous if they have 0, though.

Turns out they had 2 timeouts.

The clock was ~1:13 so not calling it was clearly bad, I agree.

What does the clock have to be at before calling the timeout is bad?

My wife isn't a sports fan. Over the years, though, she has certainly picked up some knowledge as the result of me taping her eyelids open when sporting events are on TV. That said, she doesn't know much more than the basics, enough to follow a game.

I ran the Pitt scenario by her and asked her what she would have done.

"Go for it, ldo."


Narduzzi was just outdone by a woman who had to borrow a friend's Willie McGinest jersey - BROWNS version - to wear to a Bar Mitzvah "jersey" party.

The “explanations” always get me. You can tell these guys are just absolute morons.

So this has got me thinking about how to define a mistake and how to quantify how big a mistake is. I'm sure this has been worked out by bayesian math dudes already, but here's my proposal:

Step 1) Take all the possible choices available at any given decision point. Calculate the expected win percentage for each choice.

For example, let's say a coach has 3 options- A, B, and C. Choosing A gives a 40% win probability, B is 30%, and C is 10%. The coach ends up choosing C.

Step 2) Add all the win percentages together. In this example, A+B+C= 40 + 30 + 10 = 80%.

Step 3) Subtract the optimal choice (A) from the total win percentage. 80%- 40% = 40%

Step 4) Subtract the actual choice (C) from the total win percentage. 80%- 10% = 70%

Step 5) Divide the number in step 3 by the number in step 4. 40%/70% = .57

The lower this number is, the shittier the decision was/bigger the mistake. Getting a 1 would be making the optimal choice.

By adding all the win percentages together in Step 2, you account for how many choices and how good the choices are. Making a choice with a 10% wp when your other options are 40% and 30% is much worse than when you make that same choice when your other options are 40%, 30%, 10%, 10%, 10%.

How many coaches would have gone for it on 4th and goal from the 4 in a 17-6 game with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter like the Eagles did last night?

Am I wrong for thinking it's under 10? Seems like a no brainer and then I tried to picture someone like even Bruce Arians going for it there. And, I am pretty sure he'd kick the FG.

Pretty exciting moment to be a Steelers fan. It's time to full-on tank and the team is led by the maestro of figuring out creative ways to lose football games.

You're trying way too hard

Without putting a real life example on it, both of those scenarios are ~equally bad

How bad the call is really only depends on how many expected wins you're throwing away and how obvious the correct call was

I'd smash the under on 10

It's closer to 1.

There is no accountability at the head coaching level.

What the **** is 4-minute defense? Is it like 8-minute abs?

Hilarious that it was probably part of the decision making process for this mongoloid. "Might as well take the 3 and trust the defense b/c we've been excelling in our "4-minute defense" drills all week and there are roughly 4 minutes remaining!"