And the play calling in fact did not disappoint; of course Dallas' defense just came up small again anyway. I was rooting for the Cowboys and really didn't mind the deep kick.

Another variable that has to be accounted for is odds of mounting a successful 70-yard drive vs. a 90-yard one (which you'd likely be facing after a failed onsides and a 3 & out). Important in this case given who's under center for the Cowboys.

Rams up 8, 4th down on the Cowboys 1 yard line, 7:30 left in 4th quarter.

Rams try to draw Cowboys offsides then take timeout to avoid delay of game.

Maybe it was a play they should only run vs a certain look but otherwise try to draw them to get closer? Confusing.

Surprised to see so many people agreeing with kicking it deep but it could just be me both underestimating the % of the time you hold them to 3 and out despite giving up 450 yards as well as overestimating the % of the time you get a recovery.

Aren't you allowed to hold them to there and out after a failed onside kick?

Yeah, thats why I've always been under the impression that it's a near freeroll to onside kick. Since even if you miss you're in almost the same spot

As I said above, it can make the difference between facing a ~70yd drive and ~90yd on average (these numbers could be argued obviously). You'd have to decide whether the decrease in TD equity there outweighs the (these days somewhat anemic) chance of an onside recovery.

By "pure logical" I was basically meaning that it's not clearly mathematically correct in the way that going for 2 after scoring to go down 8 in a similar situation would be.

Point 1 is the main reason why I think the assumption that the knowledge is more valuable to the offense is a reasonable one. As for point 2 however, it's pretty trivial to come up with ways that the defense could play differently when knowing the offense require 2 scores with very little time than when they require only 1.

2:20 with 3 timeouts is forever if you're only trying to score once, so the defense has to respect the entire playbook. If they have to score twice then the defense can focus far more on preventing big plays and passes to the outside. I know we like to laugh at coaches going into prevent defenses way too early but this is a spot where it would obviously be correct.

I agree that's a potential thing, however I also see prevent Ds getting ripped apart on the reg, which is why I'm skeptical of the whole idea of information about game state being useful to Ds. The offence has control over so much more of the way the game happens, like timing decisions, decisions to punt or go for it on 4th, onside kick or not, runs or short passes or deep passes, etc. All the defence can do is set up slightly better to account for the range of possibilities. I'm not convinced it's possible for game state to give as much power to them as it does to the offence.

As good as McVay is some of his timeout usage is quite suspect

I’m guessing they were going to run a fake. But when they got to the line they didn’t like the look they got and decided against it


Anyone using the rams coach in this thread after that masterpiece can suck all the dicks.

A fake what? They were on the one yard line, lined up to go for it, changed formation a couple of times, couple of hard counts, then called time out when the play clock expired. Then they lined back up and went for it.

Here’s all the mistakes I saw in that game:

Jason Garrett:

4th and 1, run up the middle vs a stacked box
Not going for 2 when they scored to make it a 9 point game.
Calling timeout with 2:07 left instead of letting it run down to the 2 minute warning, giving McVay the choice of running or throwing. I actually think if they let it run down to the 2 minute warning, the Rams would have just run it up the middle twice and punted.

McVay:

Going for it on 4th and goal up 8 instead of just kicking it to make it a 2 score game.
Not throwing when Garrett used that timeout before the 2 minute warning

I'm pretty sure the majority of incomplete pass plays take less than 7 seconds. It's on the marginal side but throwing and not getting to the 2 minute warning is such a huge disaster that I can't see a team ever throwing there. Take another 2-3 seconds off the clock and it would be obviously awful but 2:07 is enough that I think the timeout is fine.

You also missed McVay punting on 4th and 2 from midfield and whatever the hell they were doing on the 4th and goal from the 1 before calling the timeout. Plus there were some more marginal ones like kicking the FG on 4th and 3 from the 7 and punting on 4th and 2 from DAL47 (they're close enough to not be big mistakes but still significantly bigger change in win equity than Dallas not going for 2)

I’ll knock Belichick itt if I damn well please

Lol you gtfoooh

I was under the impression that its better to take your timeouts before the two minute warning. For example, if Garrett calls TO at 2:04 instead of letting it run to 2:00, then if they get the stop they get the ball back around 2:00 instead of 1:56. Is this not accurate?

It's better to take timeouts before 2:00 but only up to the point where you don't give the offense a freeroll to pass. If you take a timeout at 2:04 then the offense can pass without having to worry about the clock stopping due to an incomplete pass (because it would stop for the 2 minute warning anyway).

Thanks

I think Garrett's use of timeouts to handle the end game situation was correct yesterday.

Technically, there was 2:08 left (and not 2:07) when they called their first timeout, which makes it even harder to allow for a incomplete pass to hit the 2 minute mark. My cutoff point would be 2:06.

Also, he correctly let the 2nd down play tick down to the 2 min warning instead of calling timeout at 2:03.

McVay's use of timeouts on the other hand was, as usual for him, pretty awful. He challenged the deep Gallup catch almost instantly before there was a replay shown and well before Dallas was going to run a play. He had enough time to get a better read of the replay before throwing his challenge flag. Also, that 4th and goal timeout from the 1 is only not being included here because they were up by 8 (and there was less future utility for that timeout as opposed to if his team was trailing or in a closer game), but he's constantly wasted timeouts when his team's been behind all season.

Love love love this play

Pats. 4th and like 6 from midfield with 6:20 to go. Run the cloc down to 5 seconds

Random guy commits false start penalty on purpose

Now it’s 4th and 11.

Clock rolls. They get another 25 second play clocks

Yeah the Titans did something similarish (deliberate penalty to take more time off the clock) a few weeks ago, love it but have a feeling the league will do something about it this offseason.

Actually never mind it was almost the opposite - they took a deliberate penalty on defense to stop the clock

Doug using a timeout less than a minute into the second half

And Doug again going in severe hurry up at the Saints 25 yard line with two minutes and a timeout left

running a play before the 2MW was horrible

Pederson declining that holding penalty 4th and a foot did not pass the smell test. I was reasonably certain NOR would go for it one way or another, and they did. The game completely switched at that point. Who knows what would have happened had NOR faced 3rd and 10 at their 25 instead. Chances were low they convert and PHI gets the ball back likely with 10 yards better field position.

If you assume NOR has a dumb coach who will not go for 4th and a foot down 14 then of course decline the penalty.

The 1st down play at 2:01 was debatable. NOR was backing up on D and Jeffrey should of course caught the pass. 1:55 or so w/ 1 TO on 2nd and short or 1st down around the 18. NOR had only 1 TO so their hands were tied. PHI only had 1 TO as well so it gave PHI more options to run the ball and take 40 seconds off each run. Options generally add value.

Yeah if they saw something they liked I see no reason not to run a play there, calling it dumb is being super results oriented (similarly so if the play had worked and Eagles went on to score way quick and Brees marched downfield for a FG).