Quote:
Originally Posted by Semtex
So going for 2 is more +EV b/c it puts you in a situation to win with a TD and FG? Or am I still missing the point?
No, the point is, if you're goiing to go for the win in reg when scoring a TD when previously down 14, go for 2 now instead of later. Your planning to do it anyways, but if you do it this way you now have a bailout if you fail. Now you're down 8 and can still tie to force OT.
Also, if you take for granted that you WILL score 2 TDs, and that you are 50/50 to win in OT, then it is +EV to go for 2 every time in the down 14 situation. Your breakeven point is like 38% success rate for 2pt conv.
38% of the time, you hit the first 2pt Conv and win the game in Reg.
62% * 62% = 38% of the time, you miss both 2pt conv and lose in Reg.
The other 24% of the time, you go to OT and win/lose 50/50.