This as well. You're against FAT MIKE, he probably dials up some awful draw play.

I would have been stunned. Payton had a half-dozen guys out for the rest of the game including Kamara. Aints would have been at a decided disadvantage in OT. Their best shot was right then.

Less the OT advantage, more the fact that it wasn't a lock to go to OT at the time if they went FG. Atlanta would have 3 TO's and 2:20 to go about 40 yards to get in Bryants FG range.

The important thing here in the penalty declination decision is the guess isn't about whether its correct to go for it on the 4th or not. Its about whether the guy on the other sideline is going to go for it or not. Had Payton kicked the FG (a terrible play) no one would have worried about Quinn's decision at all. And in a vacuum, facing 4th and inches, I think a HEAP of coaches in the league would have taken the points if they had of arrived at 4th and inches after a play that gained ground (i.e, that had 3rd and 6 and didn't quite get it either way.

All that "defending" of his decsion said, Quinn SHOULD have known that 4th down was a go for it spot based on the third down situation and play call.

Yep all of this

This analysis is obviously biased by what actually happened. He actually went for it, so you're likely to overestimate the chance that he was going to do it.

Idiotic FGs and punts on 4th and short are beyond standard. I think he kicks a lot more than 60%.

NFL coaches are risk averse, really don't have anywhere the understanding of the percentages that you display above, and above all play not to lose. Sure Payton is less bad than most, but he's still bad. I assure you there will be plenty of even more obvious spots this season for him to go for it and he won't.

Unfortunately, we're never going to be able to determine what the chance of Payton going for it was However, to make this call thread worthy he would have to be way off on the estimate. Let's say he thinks Payton will go for it 25% of the time and he actually goes for it 50% of the time. The amount of game EV lost is pretty small compared to a lot of the other idiocy in this thread. So, while this decision could be bad, its probably far from loltastically awful.

If you would have been stunned, then I guess you don't watch a lot of football. Or you're easily stunned. There are tons of more idiotic failures to go for it on 4th down than this all the time.

Bolded is correct. Obviously we all agree that going for it was better.

As far as reading Payton's mind is concerned, we're all speculating. I'm just surprised at everyone's level of confidence that Payton would go for it.

I don't know you can simultaneously think that

1. A "HEAP" of coaches would have kicked the FG
2. Payton was going to go for it

It would seem that #1 would cast a lot of doubt on #2.

They've been in the top three most efficient teams on 4th down the past three seasons, have well above average attempts, were half a yard away and were banged up. "A lot more than 60%" chance he kicks the field goal seems ridiculously optimistic

Im still not even convinced declining is correct even if you have perfect information that they will kick. Think the burden of doing that math is on the "decline is correct" camp.

With perfect information the penalty should be declined because a repeat 3rd down takes 40 seconds of the clock.

Really?

I don't know all (or any) of the exact percentages to do the whole analysis, but we can start with this. Which number do you think is higher:

1. Difference in FG success between where they were and 10yds back
2. Chance of converting a 3rd and 10.5


I think #2 is significantly higher than #1. Enough that all the other considerations are rounding errors (turnovers, etc.). I suppose someone more motivated than I can look up the numbers and crunch them.

Both of those numbers are about 30% as far as I can tell.

NLSoldier,

Let's assume 30% on #2 (I think someone else posted that number too, so I won't bother to check)

This seems to suggest that #1 is less:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-are-forever/

None of the above.

Payton is an above average coach in these situations imo. And it should be ludicrous for Quinn to have assumed that he would kick the FG where the best the Saints could have done was push the game to OT where they would have been at disadvantage.

But it seems to be typical Quinn. He assumed that the other guy would do what he would have done. Not a path to success imo.

You accept the penalty because you know them going for it on 4th is bad for you and if they're bad enough to kick it they should also play their 3rd down very conservatively, take more time off the clock and have a longer kick.

just two weeks ago sean payton kicked a 20 yard field goal down 13 points with ten minutes left

lets not assume it was clear he would go for it

This...

Also someone mentioned clock. Given the game situation Atlanta probably prefer more clock than less in a vacuum (NO had at least two TO's at the time, ATL had all 3)

I think you all are grossly overestimating the second level thinking by either of these guys. Neither has mastered level one.

Regardless of the penalty, can't not sneak against this formation

I see. I guess below must have been pretty stunning to you, right? And just two weeks earlier. What an unlikely coincidence that we happen to talk about stunning things Payton might do and he happens to have just done one!

This is more or less my point. Here's the level one thinking:

Quinn: If we decline, they've got to kick
Payton: It's 4th down, can't risk not converting. Gotta take the points.

This happens literally all the time in the NFL, even when smarter idiots like Payton are involved.

Not sure I was stunned, but I was certainly surprised. You can probably check the GDT and see that I registered criticism at the time. I'm pretty sure I did. But as bad as that was, there is a huge difference in the two situations.

Do you honestly believe there was any chance at all that Payton would kick that FG against Atlanta? If so, could you assign what you think the probability of that would be? Not to prolong this debate as I don't think it will alter either your position or mine, but I'm just genuinely curious. I wouldn't even mind if you would rate Payton on a 0-100 "John Fox to Bill Belichick scale" for that particular situation.

There should be markets for, e.g., Saints go on 4th there. I’m guessing it was -300ish.

Surprised, but not stunned? That's a fine distinction you're claiming, but I'll take your word for it.

To answer your question I'd have said 1/4 of the time (he'd go for it) prior to this whole discussion. Now maybe I'd say 1/3. Really don't think it was higher than that. If someone claimed 1/2, I could wrap my head around it. Anything higher I think is unrealistic. The default in the NFL is that when a team is in a position where they should go for it on fourth down, they don't. That is super common and I don't think the unique factors in this case move the needle enough.

Now your turn. What probability do you assign to Payton kicking that FG two weeks ago? And how much below your "stunned" threshold was that?

I guess I'm glad it didn't exist, because I would have pounded the **** out of that line.