Quote:
Originally Posted by Fonkey123
Pitt down 9 with like 45 seconds left no TO at the eagles 20-25 with 4th and 15, (and a backup qb), go for it instead of kicking the field goal.
I heard about this second hand, but it doesn't seem obviously stupid to me...
P(Scoring TD from 20 on 4th&15)*P(Advance ball into field goal range and kick a field goal in 30 seconds from onside kick field position)>P(Kick a field goal from 20)*P(Advance ball into end zone in 30 seconds from onside kick field position)
I divided both sides by P(Recover Onside Kick) to simplify, obv. It's much easier to suck out in one play the 4th&15 spot than it is to advance the ball all the way downfield and score a TD without running out of time.