starting TJAXX is pretty stupid when you have NINJA JOSH PORTIS

This really was a banner week for dumb coaching, although given the new kickoff rules, penalties enforced on the kickoff are close to meaningless

Tony Soprano:

Miami down by 10 with 8:01 left, 4th and 1 on their own 17. Texans had just scored a TD on prior drive.

Henne steps up and tries to draw Texans offsides, then calls timeout with :01 left on the playclock. Then he goes and talks to Tony Soprano, who sends out the punting team! lol.

Once again proves that coaches goal is to lose by not a lot, instead of getting risky with it and actually trying to win the game. And lol @ acquiring Reggie Bush. Where's LENWHALE when you need a yard!?

lol miami

But I didn't see the Harbaugh thing or the Smith thing and cannot believe they did that, both of those are far worse than what Soprano did. You could argue that Miami was so deep in their territory, and they did have a chance to get the ball back twice if they punt. Still, it was just weak.

I mean every week there are dozens of incredibly stupid things done by NFL head coaches that go completely unnoticed. Yesterday Jim Caldwell challenged a 2 yard pass. Not a third down, not a fourth down, not even a remotely important situation, and it wasn't a slam dunk win. Andy Reid did not challenge an obvious interception. Andy Reid blew a timeout with a few minutes left that cost the Eagles a chance to win at the end. Mike Smith kneel kneel punted to DeSean Jackson and didn't even instruct his punter to kick the ball high or our of bounds or anything. Jim Harbaugh didn't go for it on 4th and 1 on the 40, kicked a field goal, made it, got a personal foul and DID NOT ACCEPT THE FIRST DOWN. Chilly2.0 made no effort to preserve time for his team to possibly win a game, then gave an interview revealing that he is, confirmed, mentally ******ed. Marvin Lewis did a bunch of really stupid **** that I'm forgetting. So did Norv Turner. The Bears played a game so I'm sure Lovie Smith did something really stupid. All this and the media continues talking about how some guy is a FOOTBALL PLAYER yadda yadda meow chow.

So do you think any coach facing 3rd and 1 from the 37 given the choice of "hit a 15 yard pass to get 1st and 10 on the 22" or "throw incomplete, but make a FG", would take the incomplete and FG?

How often does SFO get zero points from 1st and 10 on the Dallas 22 with David Akers as their kicker? I find it inconceivable that they win the game more often kicking off up 10 than having 1st and 10 almost in the red zone, where they can at worst play conservatively, run some time or make Dallas burn timeouts and then attempt a very high % FG. Akers is 93.3% for his career on kicks under 40 yards, having kicked in a cold weather outdoor location for his entire career. AND he's horrible at FGs over 40, so yes, attempting a 55 yd FG on 4th and 1 would suck with Janikowski, much less Akers. Goddammit. I was actually excited when the Niners signed Harbaugh. Maybe Harbaugh is in a big $$ fantasy league and got a bonus for the Akers over-50 figgie.

I mean Akers didn't like get injured immediately after that kick, right? lol

I could see if he let the kick go and someone dived at his knee and hurt him then you'd keep the points.

The Harbaugh thing would have been ok if there was like 4 minutes left or something, but 11 minutes is just way too much time to think 2 scores = win.

FWIW, Brian Billick was defending the decision from the booth as it happened.

even with 4 minutes left, that makes the ability to burn 3 plays worth of clock or timeouts for Dallas all the more important. I was trying to think of a scenario where it wouldn't be ******ed. I would say if it puts you up 17 with less than 5 minutes left. And your QB has had his thumbs severed so he may fumble the snap.

Well, Brian Billick is a moron. But he's really tall and has an authoritative voice, so society thinks he's smart.

Yeah but he won a Super Bowl with Trent ****ing Dilfer. Confirmed genius.

Did any of you even read the linked ANFLS blog? Declining the penalty and getting a touchback = WP of 0.9. Accepting the penalty give you a WP of 0.91. It's really marginal either way and if given that your kickoff team should be able to design a play that in expectation is greater than an auto-touchback taking the FG is a fine play. Generally you take the personal foul, but there are game states where the marginal value of three points is very high, this is one of those times.

Harbaugh made two big mistakes, kicking a 55 yard FG on 4th and 1 and settling for the auto touchback.


Also Billick along with John Lynch are the two best colour commentators in the NFL imo.

He's not the only one. I saw a college game earlier this year where the QB took the ball, back up a bit, then kneeled. Unfortunately, there was almost a fight as the linemen got into it when they realized it wasn't an immediate kneel.

Is it just me or was the Ravens kicking a FG with 7 minutes left in the game down 23-10 pretty terrible? Granted it was 4th & 11, but you're still down two scores with time being a huge factor.

do you know if the ANFLS considers all teams equal or if that is adjusted for SFO's offense, DAL's defense, SFO's kicker, etc?

What are some of the swingiest win probabilities possible on any single play/decision?

yeah pudges post makes sense to me. i read the scenario and i didn't think it was even in the same realm as frazier's. smith's was obviously bad, but quite a bit less bad in my opinion. i mean if they punt it OB its a pretty negligible error i'm guessing.

Last week in the Denver/Oakland game, Denver scored a TD to bring it to 23-20 with 3:43 left. They kicked it off and never had the ball again.

frazier's is definitely horrific. smith's decision to punt to djax to me wasn't the killer as much as it was the kneeling. if they had kneeled at the 50, then punted through the endzone with 10 seconds left, meh. but when you arent even going to TRY to avoid facing DeSean Jackson fielding a punt at midfield, and then a Hail Mary from your territory, a good explanation why would be great.

wat

WinProb is not always the best way to evaluate decisions, just like you wouldn't evaluate all gambling opportunities by EV alone. Smith's decision is hilariously stupid because while punting OOB (assuming the same kneeling ****) is only a marginal increase in WinProb, the mechanism of action is by removing a low-probability event from the range of outcomes (a DeSean Jackson return TD) which is devastating when it occurs.

Same idea as why insurance policies are often -EV but worth having because they remove catastrophic events from the range of outcomes.

oh, i didnt realize it was from deep in their own territory. that makes it quite a bit worse than i thought.

they had 1st and 10 from their own 22, snapped the punt from their own 18, fielded at the PHI 47 and returned to ATL 45 where PHI then threw a Hail Mary into the EZ.

im not sure i buy this. how catastrophic can any play in football be? you either win or lose. you can't lose twice in one game. it would be analogous if you said that it was sometimes right to make football plays that were -(expected points). but win probability already figures in the marginal value of points.

yeah that's pretty bad. disregard my previous post on it.

I kind of thought that we were at an inflection point a couple years ago where coaches/GMs were finally waking up to the idea that they were seriously neglecting the clock management and win probability aspect of their jobs.

Now I'm just depressed for humanity. We seem to be going backwards in this area, with no repercussions or accountability whatsoever (other than the obvious - bitchy fans and actually losing more).