Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd
it's only a 78% chance of scoring a touchdown according to the NFL Advanced Stats calculator from 1st and goal from the 1. That drops to 69 and 52% on 2nd and 3rd down.
Isn't this partly because most coaches only take three shots at the TD? I think the numbers you're looking at are based off examples from the past X years (as opposed to what a random team would do if they were coached optimally).
The Saints/Patriots/Chiefs are presumably going to score more points than the Bears/Eagles/Vikings on 1st and goal from the 1 because their coaches are almost always going to use four downs instead of three. Obviously, conservative coaching is a big factor in those figures, so I assume a team with more optimal coaching would score a TD more than 78% of the time, which is probably why the figure looks low to us.