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Also I dont watch a ton of football- What exactly is the ev of going for 2 when you score down 14 vs kicking the extra point?
If you had a bad offense and were playing a great defense how much would this change what would be the correct play?
Essentially, if you go for two, you can win by:
making the 2 AND scoring another touchdown
OR
missing the two AND socring another touchdown AND making the two (after the second touchdown) AND winning in overtime.
If you don't go for two, you can win by:
scoring another touchdown AND winning in overtime.
If you do the math, it turns out that if you have a better that 38% chance of making 2, then it is +EV do go for 2 when down by 14 (8 after the touchdown). Almost any team will have a better than 38% chance to make a 2 point conversion.
This assumes a 50% chance of winning in overtime and a 100% chance of making any kicked extra points. If you change those assumptions, the chance of making 2 that would be required to make it a +EV decision will change, but will still be such that almost any team should go for 2 in this situation.