Does anybody remember this game? Colts-Patriots in the 2007 regular season.

At the end of the first half, the Colts had 1st and 10 at their own 27 with 28 seconds left. The play was a short dumpoff to Addai, who then took it to the house. Obviously, this doesn't prove anything either way; it's just a time that I recall something like that actually working.

The Patriots ended up winning 24-20 in one of the closer games of their undefeated regular season. This game had huge hype at the time for obvious reasons.

This made me think of another hypothetical. When you're deep in your own territory, the next score in the game is more likely to come from the other team than your own team. I believe the inflection point where you're more likely to score than your opponent is your own 20 yard line (this is an average across modern NFL history). So if you were to offer someone the following:

-You have the ball on your own 1 yard line.

-Game is untimed and sudden death.

-You can either play the game out or have it decided on a coinflip.

It would actually be correct to go to the coinflip. Yet I think there would be a strong instinct in most humans to control their own fates and play it out with their offense.

I think the inflection point is the 15.

My reference is somewhat old (although many principles still apply), it could have shifted to the 15.

Has anyone read any of the books devoted to football clock management? There are several that are easily obtainable. I am under the assumption that they contain at least decent information, since a lot of stuff is pretty obvious if you sit down and take the time to think about it.

IIRC, Redskins-Dolphins Superbowl (lol I'm old) the Redskins threw one of the little dinky screen passes at the end of the half that turned into a pick-6.

edit: Just checked, wasn't that Superbowl. Might've been a playoff game the same year.




Throwing Deep>>>Taking a Knee>>>>>>>>>>>>Anything Else imo

Jmu vs Virginia Tech, jmu threw a 70 yd swing pass with 30 seconds left in the first half

Yeah, that's obviously the reason they do dump-offs, screens, or draw plays at the end of the half. It's relatively safe, but there's still a chance that something happens, as opposed to kneeling, which guarantees nothing will happen.

Names of said books?

Has anyone heard one pundit anywhere rag on BB for those atrocious punts? I haven't, as pretty much predicted.

I can't remember the last time I heard a pundit criticize anyone ever for punting.

Peter King did in MMQB.

wasn't that AJ Duhe?

This is true only with unlimited (or at least >X minutes) time remaining. With :31 left, both teams are unlikely to score but the team with the ball is at least 2-3x more likely

You sure about that? What are you basing that on?

To take things to their extreme, if you have the ball with 31s left on own 1 yard line on a 1000 yard field, you are obv way less likely to score than the other team (assuming you run plays and don't kneel)

You're thinking of the Redskins and Raiders, Super Bowl 18. The play starts at about 1:35.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTLeJldOXQk

No, I guess I am not sure, but I would definitely wager on it.

The reason that the team without the ball has the advantage in his scenario is primarily made up of the excellent field position they get on the resulting punt (same reason you should always go on 4th and goal), not the EV from any turnovers. With 0:31 left, that is erased.

Pretty sure they are too busy still railing him over the 4th and 2 against Peyton instead of trusting his defense.

With 31 seconds left, I'm taking the ball for the reason you gave (even if the other team gets it back, they probably won't have enough time to get a good scoring chance). Hence why I said "game is untimed" as a premise.

Football Clock Management by John T. Reed (Sep 1997)

The Complete Handbook of Clock Management (Revised 2012) by Homer Smith and Steve Axman (Jan 11, 2012)

The Football Coaches' Guide to Clock Management by John Sterner (Jan 10, 2003)

The Hidden Game of Football: The Next Edition by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn has a short chapter about drives at the end of the half and end of the game. The authors imply John Reed is the football clock management guru; I have never directly read any of Reed's material. The Hidden Game of Football is an excellent book. Although the most recent edition is copyright 1998, so much of what's in there is still not being applied in the NFL.

Yet these guys make millions and millions of dollars, and their bosses are billionaires. Incredible.

BUMP

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ll-nfl-coaches

Have read HGoF from that list and liked it a lot. It's tough to find, I don't think they printed many of them.

I have a copy of it, I don't think there's anything really new in it if you're read advanced nfl stats since most of his work pretty much begins where they ended. Did find my receipt in gmail, paid 3.52 for it (4 cents shipping!), now it's going for 15 bucks on amazon, time to arb!

I thought this qualified even though it is soccer and lol sweden and no more than an award . Our national team head coach Erik Hamrén was included in the group that votes for Ballon d'Or.

His top three in a year were Messi obliterated everything:

1. Zlatan Ibrahimovic
2. Iker Casillas
3. Christiano Ronaldo

Ibrahimovic apparently since he is the most important to us. Iker Casillas for whatever the hell reason and Ronaldo because he feels sorry for the dude.



Maybe he just likes to troll things like these. Maybe a smart move to feed the ego of our one superstar player? Probably not though.

I don't think award voting is anywhere close to bad enough to belong ITT

i need some other opinions on this..

in college bball.

losing by 1 your team has the ball
11 seconds left on the clock
you take the shot with around 3 seconds left..
does that make sense?

i understand you hit the bucket and you probably win but why not give yourself 2 chance at it?