Tomlin just went for two up 19-14 in the late third quarter

Tomlin is a moron. Just wasted a timeout on a bonehead challenge. Again. He is notorious for this.

Denver makes the correct play for two as well, up 20-19.

If the next score is an eagles FG, I would also want to have gone for 2. It means that another eagles FG would tie the game if you went for 1, or if you went for 2 you lose if you didn't make it or win if you did. This is functionally identical to scoring a touchdown to go down by 1 at the end of the game, a situation in which I would go for 2 given the Browns' poor offence and the fact that they were 9.5 point underdogs going in. At the very least there isn't much advantage to going for 1 in that spot over going for 2, whereas if Eagles get a TD next going for 1 was a disaster.

The only other scenario that matters is if Browns get a FG next, in which case it's only a 1-score game if they went for 2 and didn't get it. But this scenario (go for 2 and miss, then score FG, then Eagles get TD, then they go for 2 and make it) is so rare that it doesn't matter much.

Jags had two timeouts left. Down 5.

This 100%. Too much time left and it was a low scoring game. Maybe in a higher scoring game where a lot of touchdowns were being scored it may make more sense to go for 2 there.

Yeah I'm hoping Norv can produce because having reconsidered, while I still think Browns kicking the XP is wrong, it's pretty weak beer really. The play Pudge just quoted is actually worse. I think Norv easily has the WIM to rise to the challenge.

Just plugging it into the ANFLS win prob calculator, kicking is better in a vacuum. Who knows what the lol Weeden factor plays, much less likely to convert a two than normal, much less likely to score again than normal.

wtf kind of logic is this

McNabbstare.gif

The ANFLS win probability calculator is done with logistic regression and is pretty hopeless for endgame situations. Here are a few win probability estimates:

Situation: 1st and 10, own 20, 2:00 left in the 4th quarter (assume 3 timeouts left, the calculator doesn't include timeouts as an input)

Down 6: 0.20
Down 7: 0.13
Down 8: 0.12

That look right to you? Didn't think so. The difference between down 7 and down 8 is clearly hideously wrong, and down 6 should surely be a lot closer to double the down 7 probability than that. The WP calculator is no doubt great outside the 4th quarter, but when it gets near the end of the game, I'm going to trust an analysis of possible scoring outcomes over what it spits out.

Its not identical bc the eagles have the advantage of acting last. when down by 4 they can play for td. When down by 2 they can milk the clock and play for fg

Tomlin's not a moron. But, I would have challenged the TD play instead of the fumble that wasn't a fumble.

As bad as Browns offense was. Going for two was defintely the better play in my opinion. weden finished with 5.1 passer rating so a draw with Richardson was the best option.

Saying a challenge is stupid is super tough as it's really impossible to know what the coach knows or saw with the play.

Not a lot of TD's were being scored in this game so it was more likely the eagles would get a FG next, get it?

Na, but seriously... Kicking the PAT with 14 minutes left is almost always correct there. Too much time remaining. I'd say around 8-10 minutes or less remaining then it makes more sense to go for 2 there.

Fair point.

If he challenged the TD he would definitely be a moron. He had no need to challenge the TD because every TD is automatically reviewed.

Mistyped. It was 4th & 10

Bwahahaha lollllllll

I don't know about overall, but I watch as little Steeler's football as possible and I feel like that guy has made several utterly idiotic challenges.

With the replacement refs, the seemingly default NFL head coach move of blindly challenging in high leverage spots suddenly seems to be a bit more valuable because who knows WTF these guys will overturn.

tomlin is def a moron just like the rest. he gets very overrated and maybe has some good qualities as far as motivation or gameplanning or w/e but his in-game decision making is as bad (and conservative!) as anyone's (besides norv and chilly obv).

I don't know, it feels like they'd be less likely to overturn because they will treat the incontrovertible evidence part very seriously.

I do think blindly challenging is a much better move now than it was 2 years ago because now all TDs and turnovers are automatically reviewed, so it's more difficult to run out of challenges