fyp

I honestly can’t imagine watching a game where a prolifically horrible head coach does something like calling a fake punt, leaves the punting unit on and gets a delay of game cuz of it and thinking that guy has the right idea of end of game clock management on a qb draw and just got unlucky

A pass from the 41 yard line to the end zone is not necessarily a hail mary pass.

Optimal play call(s) is 1/2 passes to the end zone, with a Pass Interference penalty a reasonable possibility.

But they practiced this play. Regularly.

Fat Mike!

I'm going to ask someone to post said analytics if he says running up the middle w/o college 1st down is even close to 0 EV. I can't think of less efficient way to advance the ball.

Kyle Shannahan:
* kicked a fg on 4th and 1 from the Dallas 22 to go up 13-0 with 40 mins left in the game
* kicked an xp at 22-7 (not sure how bad this one is, but there’s very little gap between a 15 and 16 point lead compared to the gap in value between a 16 and 17 point lead)
* punted on 4th and 1 from the Dallas 49 with 2:51 left and up by 6. Not only are your odds of getting a 1st really strong, in the worst case that scenario that Dallas scores a td, you want them to do it as fast as possible so you have a chance for a rebuttal. Alas, two plays after the ensuing punt, Dallas was past midfield.
* finally made a good decision and decided to go for it on 4th and inches with 40 seconds left. Then motioned the left tackle to the right side of the line (because he has fancy play syndrome), which resulted in a boneheaded false start by jimmy

His play call of a reverse pitch to Deebo on 3rd and 10 prior to this play was really good though.

the fake punt was amazing too then they just totally ****ed it up doing god knows what. like if that went exactly as planned for dallas wtf was the point.

draft positioning?

Every ex-player talking head I've seen today and yesterday says they were always coached that 16 seconds is safe, and 14 is cutting it very very close.

I am analyzing the situation in a vacuum. You are bringing in prior biases. I am not certain it was the optimal playcall but I do know 14 seconds was plenty of time to execute the playcall. Dak was down with 9 seconds left.

At the very least it wasn't some horrible call as people are making it out to be. Shanahan punting on 4th and 1 with 2:50 left deserves way more criticism but his team won.

Mike McCarthy was terrible in Green Bay. Probably the worst game management coach I've seen. He's listening to his analytics team more in Dallas and he's been a top 5 4th down decision maker in the league. (He still makes some stupid mistakes and I think he should be fired.)

The funny thing about this is it's almost like that "office space" scene with "What do you do here?" when speaking of Mike McCarthy at this point. He isn't the offensive play caller and he isn't the defensive play caller either. They are already talking about possibly replacing Mike McCarthy with Dan Quinn as they say Dallas could be worried Dan Quinn will leave for greener pastures after his performance this year.

It's stupid because McCarthy is actually finally doing some in game stuff correctly or atleast much closer to correctly and he is still taking all the blame when that was Kellen Moore's play call. Kellen Moore is also hugely underrated in my opinion and if you want to put the blame on that call put it on him but he's been a fairly amazing offensive play coordinator throughout the season. I still remember the first week of the season where he basically gave Zeke Elliot close to zero carries on a national prime time TV game against one the best run stop units in the league(possibly history when healthy) and instead had his rejuvenated and just recently activated qb off a season ending injury chuck the ball up 40/50+ times or whatever and that was clearly the correct decision. Most coaches not going to do that to Zeke, a first round and successful pick, and in the post game press conference just going to act like they didn't execute. He clearly understood that the only chance to possibly winning that game was to air it out. They failed but again that was Kellen Moore calling the plays.

McCArthy is probably closer to a figure head at this point and I did question the hire at the time but he's atleast clearly shown signs of changing for the better with leaving the in game management to more qualified people.

While it's possible that was sufficient time to execute the play, the value of successfully executing that play (getting your end zone shot from the 25 instead of the 40) is very low compared to the risk involved (running out of time and getting no shot). Yes, it's shorter from the 25, but the reality is the defense is going to approach the play exactly the same way - rush a few guys, and have 7+ guys standing on the goal line.

It pointlessly introduced immense risk for very little reward.

Always a good sign when the praise is “He’s letting other people make the decisions”.

Given how that went down, I really doubt they practiced it very much. Or if they did, they approached it with a “yea this is easy, no problem” mindset. Dak choked by forgetting the ref has to touch it, that’s the kinda thing you gotta go over 20 times to make sure if you’re going to call it.

Also, if I practice something and it takes 10 secs when everyone involved knows what’s going on, I am not super confident that it will go as planned in 14 when the other team is going to try and mess with you and the refs are scrambling to figure it out. I dunno if the ole analytics are accounting for the % of time you screw it up and auto lose. Like, yea sure it’s probably significantly better to Chuck it from the 25 than the 40, but there’s no way this has happened enough to account for successfully getting in that situation.

You're starting from first principles and having a thought experiment, while ignoring all the actual NFL coaches and players who say that 16 seconds is safe and anything less is dicey.

A thousand times this

My only quibble is the reward is slightly better than ‘very little’ but that’s semantics

Basically you're saying he's an idiot and a clown but not quite as dumb as he used to be when he was completely incompetent in Green Bay. That's not a reason for him being employed as an NFL head coach. To top it off even if he is "more analytical" the entire league is a lot more analytical today, he didn't "improve" in a vacuum. Him trying to justify that play after the game was pure comedy. He sounded like someone who has read some poker books but isn't actually good at poker trying to justify stupid **** he does at the table by mixing in poker terms.They were probably just as likely to convert a 15 yard pass at the sidelines as they were this moronic play, and might have even had 2 shots at the end zone without the risk of the clock running out after one play.

so FM is the Iceman of the NFL?

guess what Vrabel's first name is?

You already know.

We should change the name of the thread to just

question regarding the Bill's strategy after scoring the go ahead td putting themselves up by 3 with 13 seconds left in the game.

Some sort of shorter higher trajectory kick or possibly squid kick assuming you can get it to roll or land close to the receiving team's 10 yard line seems more optimal than what they choose to do on the play. It forces KC to either field and down the kick near that point or waste about a play's worth of time off the remaing 13 seconds attempting to return it.

Considering they didn't do that though and looking at 1st and 10 from the 25. Is there a way for them to purposely take a defensive penalty on the 1st down play to waste time off the clock? Basically tackling all the receivers before they even have a chance to do anything or something similar to that which would greatly lessen the probability of a 5 second 20 yard type play and force about a plays worth of time off the clock in the process. Maybe that's easier said than done but I'm arguing taking a defensive holding penalty on every receiver or TE on the 1st down play. Maybe there is a rule or something I'm missing here but seems like a better strategy than what actually happened in the game.

This is the move. Just tackle all receivers.

it's like the Bills coaches never considered that end of regulation scenario. complete failure by McDermott

just squib it ffs

Yeah, there were a few things that the Bills could have done but I guess the coaching staff is brain dead when it comes to anything besides playing soft zone "cause that's what we always do."

A little outside the box thinking and the Chefs never get in FG range. Hell even Romo knew to kick it short on the KO.