Yeah, I think winning 4 races in 8 weeks is asking a lot of a horse with his rumored health issues.

I think him running all-out and slightly regressing is good. At some point to maximize potential you need to actually be in a fight and push yourself. It'll be interesting to see what he's got in the tank.

I think the top 3 coming to Pimlico will keep the field small. Maybe only 7 or 8 to the gate is my guess. No more than 10 I wouldn't think. Everyone was a little afraid of both AP and Dortmund all along, they proved they are for real, and they are both gonna be there plus Firing Line who sure looks to be at least the equal of Dortmund. No need for other trainers to try and beat a field that top heavy. Would guess it goes off AP 4/5 and each of Firing Line and Dortmund going off at 3-1 each and everyone else double digits.

Derby Chart for those interested:

http://static.drf.com/horse/charts/CD2015050211.pdf

47 1/5 1:11 1/5

Look at 3/4 time for race 12.

I love AP but there is no chance he will win belmont

AP covered more ground during the race (due to being wide) than any horse except Frosted. No real reason to think the rail was bad either.

47.3 definitely slower than average. I would be very surprised if more than 6 or 7 of the last 30 or so Derbys had a slower half mile split. Can't really compare a nw1 to a grade 1 and the winner of that race flew home the last 1/16 (5.64!) so the track couldn't have been that slow.

Frequently they change the track for the derby itself. Word is they heavily watered it this year after complaints about being too dry last year. Concur that the pace was slow, but the dawdling last quarter coupled with only two horses gaining meaningful ground suggest to me that the track itself was much slower than was readily apparent for that race..

23 1/5 47 1/5 1:11 1/5 is anything but slow, not even considering how slow the track was playing (12th race ran 1:12 2/5). I doubt they run 1:11 in the Preakness, which biases speed.

Roger, look up the fractions for the Derby over the last 20 or 30 years

Also, I've been following horse racing for a long time and I don't think I've ever seen a last 1/16 run that fast in a dirt route(5.64 and in a first condition allowance race to boot) so there's no way that track was slow unless it only was slow for the Derby and none of the other races that day. Notable also that the finishers in the trifecta were in the 1-2-3 spots at every call, usually a sign of an easy pace.

Count those < 1:11 1/5 and > 1:11 1/5 over the last 40 years or so. If you think 1:11 1/5 is very slow then I expect the count < 1:11 1/5 at 75%+.

The closer won by 6 and the frontrunner was nowhere. Mile in 1:38 1/5. The track played slow.

One thing that is very different about this race than a majority of horse races was the qualifying. Because of the change to the points qualifying system there were 15 stalking horses in this race. There was a crash of 12 horses behind those top 3. In this kind of field horses that bang and bump and get a rough trip even early are going to have a tough time running down horses of that quality.

It's a different argument and to some extent exaggerated this year by so many good horses but there was no speed horses to set the pace in this race and string the horses out. If they stay with this system there are going to be a lot more Derby's where you hear at least 2 of the horses in the tri throughout the whole race.

Agreed, which is why I contend the race didn't have a fast pace

Just for giggles I looked at the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic, in which the track played fair and had a speed duel with the leaders collapsing at the 1/4.

3/4 fraction: 1:11.

Don't know if an argument needs to be made beyond "only two horses made moves of any material nature in the stretch" in terms of if the pace was slow.

Preakness news: Pletcher is considering Carpe Diem and Materiality. Would be a big deal imo.

Hard to imagine what the 3/4 would need to have been for some of those dogs to close. 1:08?

A fast pace does not always mean that every horse far back closes. And of course it is not the closers running faster, it is the front runners slowing down, which they did. (final split was 26 2/5)

Interesting post draw. May force AP to go to the lead, which I think would be a good plan.

what's the bet for this race? cant bet pharoah at under even money. firing line to win at 4-1???

Yeah I think you have to pass or bet FL to win with saver AP/FL exacta. But I think AP wins

+1

AP looks really weak in the derby though. I think firing line or Dortmund will prob win

20 mins to go!

Feeling DORTMUND

+1