never punting is stupid, but teams should go for it more in general. going for it on 4th and 8 from your own 5 is stupid
Quote:
If Pulaski has a fourth-and-8 at its own 5-yard line, Kelley said his explosive offense likely will convert a first down at least 50 percent of the time. If it fails to convert, statistical data from the college level shows that an opponent acquiring the ball inside the 10-yard line scores a touchdown 90 percent of the time. If Pulaski punts away (i.e., a 40-yard punt with a 10-yard return) the other team will start with the ball on the 38-yard line and score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. The difference is only 13 percent.
this is a fail. he is only looking at the probability and not the expectation
expected # of points by his total by going for: td 90% of the time, and the vast majority of the time the opponent will score a fg otherwise (call it 95% of the times they don't score a td, and assume they always hit the fg) so
.9*7 +.095*3= 6.59 pts
at the 38 it's a td 77% of the time. idk what the fg conversion rates are from that distance in high school, but suppose it's 33% and also suppose they turn the ball over or punt 10% of the time (which i think are both generous), so the team kicks a fg 13% of the time
.77*7 +.13*.33*3= 5.4
common sense prevails here