The qualifying process started on the 12th of March 2015 with the match between Timor-Leste and Mongolia. 872 matches, 2454 goals and 979 later, Peru completed the field of 32 by beating New Zealand in the inter-continental play-off.
On the 1st of December, the qualified teams will now learn their fate at the draw cerymony held in St. Petersburg. Let's look at the pots:
Pot 1
Russia (FIFA Rank #65, Elo Rank #45)
Previous appearances: 10, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Qualified as hosts and will be placed in Group A. During the qualification process, Russia played friendlies against various teams, with mixed results: A record of 4-5-4 in friendlies, and a group stage exit at the Confederations Cup don't give a particularly good signal to the home fans.
Germany (FIFA Rank #1, Elo Rank #2)
Previous appearances: 18, last appearance: 2014 (Winner)
The defending World Cup winners had no trouble with their qualifying group. A perfect 10 wins in 10 games, sporting a massive 43-4 goal difference, and top seed for the draw. They are top favourites for the title, which hasn't been defended since Brazil did it in 1962.
Brazil (FIFA Rank #2, Elo Rank #1)
Previous appearances: 20, last appearance: 2014 (Semi-final)
After getting demolished in their own country, Brazil was the only CONMEBOL team that had a consistent qualifying campaign. They were the first team to qualify after hosts Russia, sealing their ticket back in March, with four matches to go. With just one loss in 18 matches, they were the clear winner of the qualifying round-robin. They have re-discovered their confidence to win their sixth title, let's see how it holds up should they happen to meet Germany again.
Portugal (FIFA Rank #3, Elo Rank #4)
Previous appearances: 6, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Portugal fought a close battle with Switzerland in their qualifying group, ultimately edging them out on goal difference and both winning nine of their ten matches. Combined with their Euro 2016 win, they have reached their highest FIFA rank ever. RITS will be hoping that Bronaldo can win another international title, or at least that Messi doesn't (CryingMessi.jpg).
Argentina(FIFA Rank #4, Elo Rank #6)
Previous appearances: 16, last appearance: 2014 (Final)
Much like all other CONMEBOL teams except Brazil, Argentina struggled heavily in the closely-contested round-robin. In the end, it came down to a must-win match in Ecuador. Messi carried them to a 3-1 victory, ensuring direct qualification as the third-placed team. Their most recent loss in a friendly against Nigeria doesn't bode well for the Argentinian hopes of finally winning their third title after losing the 2014 final.
Belgium (FIFA Rank #5, Elo Rank #9)
Previous appearances: 12, last appearance: 2014 (Quarter-final)
Everyone and their grandma's dark horse Belgium had little trouble with their qualifying group, locking up direct qualification as group winners ahead of Greece and Bosnia with two games to spare. So far, the "Golden Generation" hasn't quite delivered on the big stage of international tournaments yet, getting knocked in the quarterfinals against Argentina at the last World Cup and Wales at the Euros. Will they go a step further this time around?
Poland (FIFA Rank #6, Elo Rank #18)
Previous appearances: 7, last appearance: 2006 (Group Stage)
Lead by top scorer Lewandowski, who scored 16 of Polands 28 goals, Poland cruised to a victory in their group, ahead of Denmark and Montenegro. For some reason, they are also ranked #6 in the FIFA Ranking, so they will be in Pot 1 for this draw. Much of their success will depend on Lewandowski's form.
France (FIFA Rank #7, Elo Rank #5)
Previous appearances: 14, last appearance: 2014 (Quarter-final)
Rounding off Pot 1, France were able to claim the top spot in one of the tougher groups, ahead of Sweden and the Netherlands, despite having a shocking 0-0 against Luxembourg at home. They will hope to continue their good run at tournaments, after losing the Euro 2016 final to Portugal on home soil.
Pot 2
Spain (FIFA Rank #8, Elo Rank #3)
Previous appearances: 14, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Spain drew a group with Italy, and after Italy knocked them out of the Euros, there was a bit of worry that Spain might be going in a downward spiral. But their qualifying campaign proved to be successful, after an unbeaten run and 28 points they topped the group ahead of the Italians. Now they hope to go further than they did in the 2014 edition of the tournament, where they dropped out of the Group Stage as defending champions. Potential trouble: They will not be seeded this time around.
Peru (FIFA Rank #10, Elo Rank #12)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 1982 (1st Group Stage)
Peru finished 5th in the CONMEBOL round-robin, beating Chile on goal difference. Ironically, it was Chile that protested the 0-0 result in their matchgame Bolivia, who had fielded an ineligible player against them - and Peru (Bolivia won 2-0). Both matches were awarded 3-0, so Chile gained two and Peru three points. In the inter-continental play-off, they edged out OFC winner New Zealand for their first qualification since 1982.
Switzerland (FIFA Rank #11, Elo Rank #14)
Previous appearances: 10, last appearance: 2014 (Round of 16)
27 out 30 points should usually do the trick for winning a qualifying group, but not for Switzerland. After losing to Portugal on Matchday 10, they had an inferior goal difference and had to go the extra mile - the play-off against Northern Ireland was a dry, closely fought affair in which the Swiss won the away game 1-0 by a controversial penalty and holding out for a 0-0 in the home return leg. Last time around. they gave Argentina a fight in the Round of 16, ultimately losing 1-0 to a late Di Maria winner in extra time.
England (FIFA Rank #12, Elo Rank #7)
Previous appearances: 14, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
England had little trouble topping their qualification Group, going unbeaten in the ten games - the first one managed by Big Sam, who made history as the only English national team manager with a 100% win record. Gareth Southgate took over the team after Allardyce stumbled over leaked talks to Asian businessmen in September of 2016. With Kane and Alli in form, who can really stop England this time around?
Colombia (FIFA Rank #13, Elo Rank #8)
Previous appearances: 5, last appearance: 2014 (Quarter-final)
Colombia qualified after drawing against Peru on the last matchday - a result that helped both teams, which Falcao seemed to realize during their match:
In 2014, they took on hosts Brazil in the Round of 8, where Juan Zuniga injured Neymar by jumping knee-first in his back three minutes before the final whistle. Brazil had won, but had lost Neymar - and in retrospect, Brazil would have been better off going out in the quarter-finals, wink wink.
Mexico (FIFA Rank #16, Elo Rank #17)
Previous appearances: 15, last appearance: 2014 (Round of 16)
Mexico was the dominating force in CONCACAF qualifying, losing just one of their 16 matches and ensuring their place in Russia with three games to spare, winning the "Hex" ahead of Costa Rica and Panama. They will try to fight their Round of 16 curse - in 2014 (Netherlands, no era penal!), 2010/2006 (Argentina), 2002 (USA), 1998 (Germany), 1994 (Bulgaria), they were knocked out in the Round of 16 each time. With them being placed in Pot 2, a seventh consecutive Round of 16 match-up seems realistic - but can they finally go further?
Uruguay (FIFA Rank #17, Elo Rank #13)
Previous appearances: 12, last appearance: 2014 (Round of 16)
Uruguay ended up 2nd in CONMEBOL qualifying, in which they also had the second best offense after winners Brazil, with Cavani scoring 10 of the 32 goals. In 2014, they edged out England and Italy in the "Group of Death", and ended up losing to COlombia in the first knock-out game. In my opinion one of the biggest question marks of Pot 2.
Croatia (FIFA Rank #18, Elo Rank #16)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Croatia drew an interesting, balanced group with Iceland, Turkey. On the last matchday, they won in Kiev to at least take second place of the group. In the play-off, they met Greece, and after a convincing 4-1 home win, the 0-0 in the return leg was more than enough to book the place in the final draw. "Modric and Friends" will see how far the ride will go - maybe as far as 1998, where Croatia ended up taking 3rd place overall.
Pot 3
Denmark (FIFA Rank #19, Elo Rank #19)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2010 (Group Stage)
Denmark was another team that qualified via the UEFA playoff, after a 0-0 in the home leg they dominated the game in Belfast, with Christian Eriksen bagging a hattrick in the 5-1 demolition of Northern Ireland. Before the play-off, they finished second in the group with Poland, and avoided their fate of 2014 qualifying, where they were the worst of the 9 runners-up and therefore did not qualify for the play-off.
Iceland (FIFA Rank #21, Elo Rank #21)
Previous appearances: 0, last appearance: -
Iceland, a nation of just over 300k inhabitants, has shaken up European football for a few years now. In 2014, they already narrowly missed out on qualifying for the World Cup (0-2 aggregate loss to Croatia in the play-off). Two years later, they made their debut at international tournaments - and what a debut it was: First they made it through their group, and then came England: Let's look at the description 2018 FIFA World Cup Draw host Gary Lineker gave:
Now, they won their qualifying group and are ready to take on the world. We'll see how far they will make it this time.
Costa Rica (FIFA Rank #22, Elo Rank #30)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2014 (Quarter-final)
The Ticos made it through the CONCACAF qualifying process with one game to spare, and hope to repeat their 2014 performance, where they were the absolute underdogs in the "Group of Death", before winning it. Then they beat Greece in the Round of 16 and going to a penalty shootout against the Dutch. Another potential Group of Death for them could be Germany, Spain and Japan.
Sweden (FIFA Rank #25, Elo Rank #20)
Previous appearances: 11, last appearance: 2006 (Round of 16)
Sweden groaned after the qualifying draw: A group with France and the Netherlands was more than enough to be worried about missing qualification for a third consecutive time. But this time, they were good enough for 2nd place in the group, edging out the Dutch on goal difference - in big part thanks to an 8-0 against Luxembourg:
In the playoff, they met Italy, and beat them over two legs, becoming the only unseeded team to win their play-off tie in UEFA qualification. In their last appearance 2006, they lost out to hosts Germany in the Round of 16 (0-2).
Tunisia (FIFA Rank #28, Elo Rank #52)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2006 (Group Stage)
Another team that missed the last two editions of the World Cup is Tunisia. The North Africans won their group unbeaten: DR Congo finished a close second, while Libya and Guinea did not gain any traction with 4 and 3 points, respectively. On paper, it looks like Tunisia had the easiest group, and it will be interesting to see if they will make it out of the groups for the first time in their fifth attempt, having only won a point each in 1998, 2002 and 2006.
Egypt (FIFA Rank #30, Elo Rank #48)
Previous appearances: 2, last appearance: 1990 (Group Stage)
Egypt profited from a struggling top seed Ghana, who only finished third behind Uganda. In six games, Egypt scored 8 goals, 5 of which Mohamed Salah scored, the most important one the penalty late into stoppage time to send his country to Russia:
They will look forward to their third participation in the final tournament, and mabye they will also win their first game (2 draws/1 loss in 1990, 1 loss in 1934). Fun Fact: Egypt is the only (still existing) country to have a 100% win record against Germany, winning a friendly in 1958 (2-1).
Senegal (FIFA Rank #32, Elo Rank #24)
Previous appearances: 1, last appearance: 2002 (Quarter-final)
Senegal were top seed in a stacked group of Cape Verde, South Africa and Burkina Faso. Their second group match against South Africa was lost 1-2, but later the game was annulled and the referee banned for life for match-fixing. The replay was played just before the final matchday, but Senegal won 2-0 this time around to book their place in Russia with one game left. In their only other participation, they shocked the world by beating defending champion France 1-0 in the opening match. The French meltdown saw them getting eliminated in disgrace, while Senegal moved on to the Round of 16, where they beat Sweden by Golden Goal(!) before missing the opportunity to become the first African semi-finalist by losing to Turkey, once again by Golden Goal (the final golden goal in male tournaments). It would be quite shocking if they could repeat this performance in 2018.
Iran (FIFA Rank #34, Elo Rank #21)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Iran was the third team to qualify after Russia and Brazil, by winning their final qualifying group in June, beating South Korea and Syria to 2nd and 3rd. They had lots of low-scoring games, ending up unbeaten (6-4-0) with a 10-4 goal ratio. A infamous low-scoring game occurred during their last appearance at the World Cup, the 0-0 against Nigeria being considered one of the worst World Cup games in recent memory. Their game against Argentina was dramatic, with Iran holding a 0-0 for 90 minutes before a certain Lionel Messi scored a stoppage-time winner. Similar to Tunisia, Iran has not made it out of the groups in their first four attempts, winning just one game in 1998.
Pot 4
Serbia (FIFA Rank #38, Elo Rank #23)
Previous appearances: 11, last appearance: 2010 (Group Stage)
Topping Pot 4 is the lowest-ranked UEFA team that managed to qualify for Russia: Serbia won a tight group ahead of Ireland, Wales and Austria. 21 points were enough to qualify directly, after missing out in 2014. In 2010, they somehow managed to beat Germany and finish bottom of their group at the same time.
Nigeria (FIFA Rank #41, Elo Rank #41)
Previous appearances: 5, last appearance: 2014 (Round of 16)
After the draw for the final CAF qualifying round was completed, pretty much everyone looked at Group B and went "Oh ****". Top seed Algeria had been combined with Nigeria, Cameroon and Zambia. With only the winner going to Russia, it was clear that at least two traditional African powerhouses would not make it - and after three of six matches, Nigeria was already miles ahead, with 9 points ahead of Zambia (4), Cameroon (2) and Algeria (1). THey held on to the lead to qualify with one game to spare. Let's see if they meet Iran and make it out of the group for a second time in a row.
Australia (FIFA Rank #43, Elo Rank #33)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
The Aussies had a tough time in their qualification campaign for Russia. Inconsistency was a big problem, with a 2-2 draw in Thailand being the low point. In the end, they missed out direct qualification by an inferior goal difference to Saudi Arabia, and were matched against civil-war-torn Syria, who nearly dumped them out - Tim Cahill saving the day in extra time in the return leg. Finally, they went on to play CONCACAF#4 Honduras for a place in Russia, and managed to hold a 0-0 in Tegucigalpa before winning the return leg 3-1. Last time, they were drawn into the Group of Death with Chile, Spain and the Netherlands. A similar fate is on the cards here again - a group of Brazil, Spain and Sweden, for example. The one time they made it out of the groups, they got cheated pretty hard:
Japan (FIFA Rank #44, Elo Rank #28)
Previous appearances: 5, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Japan qualified as the group winner ahead of Saudi Arabia and Australia, and will try to make it to the Round of 16 for the third time after 2002 and 2010.
Morocco (FIFA Rank #48, Elo Rank #44)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 1998 (Group Stage)
After not having qualified for the World Cup in two decades, Morocco was drawn in a group with Ivory Coast, Gabon and Mali. In the end, it came down to a direct duel with the Elephants on the last matchday: Morocco had to take at least a draw in Abidjan to advance, and after two goals in the first half they held on to a 2-0 away victory to qualify for Russia.
Panama (FIFA Rank #49, Elo Rank #47)
Previous appearances: 0, last appearance: -
The second debutant besides Iceland profited from a win against Costa Rica and the simultaneous loss of USA#1 against Trinidad & Tobago. With third place confirmed, they had made it to the World Cup for the first time in their eleventh attempt to do so. They will be underdogs in any group they enter, but so was Costa Rica in 2014.
South Korea (FIFA Rank #62, Elo Rank #37)
Previous appearances: 9, last appearance: 2014 (Group Stage)
Having made it just once out of the groups in nine attempts (twice if you count the 2002 horse ****), South Korea hasn't had an impact at the World Cup, despite being a regular participant. Once again they had little trouble at the beginning of the qualifying campaign, before nearly throwing it away with just two points in their final three matches. In the end, they finished second behind Iran and ensured direct qualification.
Saudi Arabia (FIFA Rank #63, Elo Rank #61)
Previous appearances: 4, last appearance: 2006 (Group Stage)
The lowest ranked team besides hosts Russia rounds off Pot 4. The Saudis had missed the last two World Cups after dropping to Oman in 2014 and Bahrain in 2010. This time, they secured qualification by finishing runner-up behind Japan, and look forward to their fifth time at the World Cup. They only made it out of the Group Stage in 1998.
aaaand finally
Pot 5 (a.k.a. LOL X)
- Italy: Idiot manager makes several blunders to see team not qualify for World Cup for the first time in sixty years.
- Netherlands: Dutch downfall continues, when will it end
- Chile: After winning Copa America and getting to the final in the Confed Cup, they miss out on the World Cup.
- USA#5: Had to get a draw @Trinidad and Tobago, lost and were eliminated after Honduras and Panama turned their matches around.
Draw procedure
It is not yet clear in which order the pots will be drawn. Some say 1-4-3-2, other 1-2-3-4 and 4-3-2-1. In any case, no more than two UEFA teams can be drawn into the same group, while the maximum for all other confedeartions is one team per group.
Poland cruised to a victory in their group, ahead of Denmark and Montenegro. For some reason, they are also ranked #6 in the FIFA Ranking, so they will be in Pot 1 for this draw.
Reason they're pot 1 is that they angleshot the system by playing just a single friendly in the past year before the teams got allocated into pots. I understand that half of a countries FIFA rankings are based on the average points gained from a match in the past year. Since you get well more points in qualifiers it's not that hard to scheme yourself a good ranking.
As always, FIFA is at fault with their dumb and arbitrary systems from 1955 or whatever. Go Poles.