Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
im surprised der markt has peru as big underdogs against a pretty **** danish team. last uefa qualifying spot is >>> over the last south american spot apparently
Perú was basically having the same mediocre campaign they always have with 14 points from 12 games ( and 3 of those points were won because Bolivia fielded an inegelible player for 10 minutes in a game they won 2-0 quite comfortably).
And then suddenly out of nowhere they went on a massive unbeaten run.
Draw at Venezuela away which is decent, defeated Uruguay at home, defeated Bolivia at home, defeated Ecuador away ( a game which changed the entire qualification dynamic because we all thought Chile and Ecuador were going to battle out the last spot ). Then they somehow managed to scrape a draw against Argentina away before settling for a draw against Colombia at home which was enough to secure the playoff spot.
So I suppose the market is still not sure if Perú is top 15 material or simply went on an incredible heater. I think it's somewhere in the middle , they had a lot of breaks going their way. I don't think they are one of the top 5 southamerican sides but they are not bottom 3 either.
The thing is that the even non top 5 southamerican sides are quite competitive.
They had the advantage of not changing manager in the middle of the qualification process which helped their cohesion as well.
So in short given the current odds I would pick Perú over Denmark. I think they should have similar odds. I also think the market overrates Denmark because of their 5-1 win. It happens a lot on international betting where sample sizes are small.