jep this



give özil more freedom and use the fullbacks to give width when özil/schürrle cut in

Hi.

So you model your games minute-wise? Like - if some team shoots a goal, the probability of this team to win goes up. Or is this only a marketing gag?
I mean it's okay to have a 'model'.
However, showing a graph with quote-like starting points converging as long as no goal hits, then making a jump when a team scores, is - forgive me - completely pointless.

If you wanna start minute- or tick-wise modelling, just model it. But you don't. So I don't get why you keep showing these graphs.

Yeah, as as a neutral fan I would have to bet on Colombia. They have looked great. James is the truth. Brazil has looked decent, of course Neymar pushed them over the top. He is a special talent, but may be too much pressure on Brazil though. I like Colombia.

Matter of fact, if anyone wants to bet $100-$300, let me know. I would take Colombia of course. PM me.

The technology is close at hand probably, but a 'run of play' graph would be amazing once it gets accurate.

Do i have to call him Hames?

I'll take brazil to qualify my $150 to your $150.

market has belgium shorter than expected vs argentina
backing belgium to win the WC(14.5) better option right now(personally backed them at 24 before the US game)

"+1"

On the basis of this I'll probably vote no in the referendum.

Hi. Thanks for your feedback! Believe me, the last few games haven't been the most exciting for me to graph either! I have enjoyed sweating the changing probabilies of extra time/PKs, but the two lines approach 50% isn't a ton of fun for me either. I'm not sure what's going on in the knockout round that's making all the scoring happen late. Could be random, could be a real tightening of play following by teams tiring. Who knows!

Anyway, I do think it's interesting to see where teams start, how expected goals impacts the value of a goal / probability of extra time/PKs, how red cards and when they happen interplay with all that.

Maybe we'll get some more open games in the next round??

Did your model ever account for the more scoring this cup has than others? I'd guess not and it definitely didn't account for american WIM when it had them at 0% down 2-0. (obviously it didn't account for in game flow either) [I would reckon tiring has to do with a fair bit of the extra time scoring as subs were running circles around the tired guys]

idk what to expect now that everyone left is at least good. You'd figure a bunch of 1-0's but everybody's scoring goals this cup.

Gonna get better before kick off imo

Only if you're culturally challenged.

Despite Colombia obviously looking like a decent outfit they're only 21st out of the 32 teams in shots per game at this WC. Brazil are 5th. Belgium are top although greatly aided by last night I'd assume.

I'm expecting Brazil to shorten a bit before Friday even without Gustavo.

Nah, it's been great (best ever) but at the same time i'm already chomping at the bit for the new season.

*champing

Both acceptable I believe.

I am a traditionalist (obv).

I kinda like betting Belgium over Argentina but there's the slight snag that I haven't seen arg play at all yet have they been any good?

messi has

rest of them are clowns

Argentina have been pretty bad. Arguably the worst of the 8 remaining teams.

Belgium will be free money.

Argentina attack game has been awfully slow.
If Messi drops to midfield and takes ball forward things start to happen (as 2-3 players immediately move out of position to stop him) - and Argentina hasn't taken nearly enough advantage out of that.

So, ya, they need Messi to make anything happen, be that a goal or a promising attacking move.

At least they haven't been lol-worthy defensively just yet.

fact that messi forces other forwardsh to be support-forwards and does zero of the off-ball movement as evidenced by his statistical goatness at not running makes him a tactical liability

talent-wise he's still the best but its just handcuffs the team to a certain set of predictable parameters that becomes less and less viable as he diminishes, would definitely prefer to sell him for 250m or whatever and start again with neymar and suarez goating it up. still tilted by cesc sale

I don't get what ur point was here

This interactive chart with all WC goals since 1930 is pretty cool:

http://www.economist.com/node/21603828

Belgium is an awful matchup for Argentina, but Rojo has been playing outstanding so far. They've really needed that. Mascherano has been quality as well. It likely won't be enough.

Belgium also has the DMs to stifle Messi when he drops back towards the MF. He will definitely need to pick up the off-ball movement against the Belgians. Kompany looked great health wise against the USA despite the injury concerns. However if Messi can get some solid off-ball movement and receive the ball around the 18 instead of starting everything from 30 out, I like his chances dribbling around Kompany and van Buyten.

Such a deeper Belgium bench as well with the luxury of bringing in subs like Mirallas and Lukaku/Origi. Is Nainggolan on the roster? He hasn't played yet if he is, but it's a very deep squad. Not to mention they likely have the 2nd best Keeper ITW.

I wouldn't say Belgium is "free money" but they probably win this match and are good value for their current market price. Argentina won't have Tim Howard GOATing it back there.

In the end the brilliant wing play, the quality long shots from the likes of Witsel, and the efficient striker play will probably do the trick. Belgium doesn't press much and the conservation of energy has really paid off. Then again their 4 opponents so far haven't really been top quality.

It would be nice if Aguero showed up. Does he know Brazil is hosting the WC? He needs to book a flight ASAP.