I'd side with Nadal as his career projects to eclipse Federer, but a lot of people think Nadal will collapse physically way earlier than Fed.

I think Djokovic will be the favorite in every non-French major for 5 more years or so.

The WIM Djokovic has shown in his peak isn't really nonsense imo

How many majors does Murray end his career with?

2 imo

Same number as me.

b/c that's what the wisdom of crowds says

Nadal is -110 to win Roland Garros, Djoker +165, and considering Djoker is unlikely to face Federer & Nadal - while Nadal is much more likely to face Federer then Djoker - not sure how you can argue Djoker is a favorite over Rafa at RG

How likely is a 1st or 2nd round loss by nadal/fed/djok/murray in a major?


Is it like the NCAA tourny where a 1 has never lost to a 16?

it's approximately the odds of one of them breaking a leg during the match and being forced to reture

I said djokovic is the favourite over nadal on clay, not to win a tournament. djokovic beat nadal in masters 1000 finals last year. He beat nadal in finals on all surfaces.

RG last year didn't provide us with information that strongly points the other way. Nadal beats everyone not named djokovic, especially on clay. federer on top of his game has a pretty good chance of stopping djokovic on top of his game.

Do any of Nadal/Djok/Fed/Murray win a major over the age of 32? Just researched a little bit and see Aggasi won the Australian at age 32 in 2003.

Vegas is taking bets on the French

I don't believe the bolded is necessarily true, as I think 1 vs. 3 semis are just as likely as 1 vs. 4.

I think if you view the head to head matches as:

- Rafa as a big favorite over Fed and a slight dog to Djokovic;
- Djokovic as a slight dog to Fed and a slight favorite over Rafa

you can arrive at a situation where Rafa is more likely to win the Open while still a dog to Djokovic head to head. EDIT: It's probably pretty obvious but the scenario outlined is what I believe at this point.

that's also pretty much what I believe but it's not like I'm confident here. the clay masters will give a far better picture.

edit: except that I think djokovic isn't a dog vs fed any longer. guess I really should be making a bet.

Yeah, I don't think I'd want to make an even money bet on Djokovic winning vs. Nadal, but given the lines posted I'd probably make a casual bet on Djokovic if somebody wanted to lay the vig-free equivalents.

I don't understand the above, unless you are thinking that Fed and Djoker are on the same side of the bracket, which I think is pretty unlikely to happen. Djokers odds against BOTH Federer and Rafa are irrelevant unless he has to play both of them

aren't seeds very likely to be

1. Djoker
2. Rafa
3. Fed
4. someone who will be a massive dog to Djoker in any semifinal matchup

It's 50/50 if Nadal and Djokovic get matched up with the 3 or 4 seed. Completely random draw.

I honestly hope he wins at least one. I hope he gets it quick tho, because him winning one just makes tennis even better. I think we all want that.

ok, I didn't know that.

still I don't think the #'s would support Djoker > Rafa h2h even assuming there's a 50% chance Djoker has to play Fed in semi's

It's gonna depend on how each guy looks throughout the clay court swing + their progress through the French. If you remember Nadal struggled in the early rounds last year, didn't he get taken to 5 by Isner? Novak looked good throughout. If that's the case again this year (personally I don't see it, Nadal is gonna do a much better job of handling his body) then I could easily see Novak being slightly favoured over Nadal if they meet.

If they were thrown on court in Paris right now, then Nadal would be the favourite.

What? I guess if you are commenting on his inability/refusal to adjust then alright..

But if you're simply saying man Fed runs so bad then lol @ you. Let us not forget that Fed got to play 3 years of his prime in maybe the softest era of tennis ever.

Nadal has had to win 6 of his 10 majors vs Fed and another vs peak (or damn close to peak) Novak.

Novak just won 4 of 5 majors, 3 of which he faced Federer in the SF and 3 of which he beat Nadal in the Final.

Oh and this is also ignoring Murray who is also at his peak right now and hasn't sniffed a grand slam. He would have EASILY been the 2nd best player in any of 2003-2006. (Nadal was #2 in 06 but I think peak Murray is def >06 Nadal on any non-clay surface)

Also it can never be understated how sick it is that Novak/Rafa/Fed have won EVERY major for the last 7 years except for 1

just insane

For the people arguing Djok is a fav over Nadal at RG.....

how about the fact that Nadal is 9-2 career vs Djokovic on clay?

Wow! That is sick.

In before some ******s start saying that Novak/Rafa/Fed are just lucky to be playing in an era where other than those three they have no competition.

Misleading, the argument is Novak is better as of end of 2010/early 2011 than he ever has been. He was 2-0 vs Nadal on clay last year. I don't think he is but I think with Novak's defense they're definitely close.

yea and then couldn't even beat federer at the french

nadal is GOAT clay courter.......he's def. a fav vs djok on clay right now, even if it's less of a fav than in the past