Aussie - Nadal
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Nadal
US Open - Soderling

You think he could win 3 slams in a year again?

You really think Soderling will win the US open? With Fed there, Nadal better then ever and Murray and Djokovic playing. Not to mention that Del Potro will hopefully be back.

You have Federer winning 2; I'd say Nadal winning 3 next year is substantially more likely than Federer winning 2.

Based on what?

Recent history and the way they play tennis?

When we get closer to next year, I'd be willing to bet that. I was trying to get takers to bet the over on Federer getting 1.5 slams in 2010 but there wasn't much interest.

Aussie - Djokovic
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Federer
US Open - Federer

with Nadal injury in Wimbledon and Federer regaining #1 late in the year to surpass Sampras record.

Right now Nadal is better on grass than Federer imo. I dont see him losing to anyone

I think it's impossible to say that Nadal is more likely to win 3. I give Fed a good shot at winning Australia, after that it i don't think Nadal could win the next three, especially with a healthy Fed and how good the rest of the field seems to be.

What odds were you giving for the bet?

It just hit me how good next year has the potential to be. Anybody else think the same?

Right now - things could change - I think Nadal should be favored over Fed in every slam, French>>Wimbledon>US/Aussie. I don't think Nadal is a lock to win 3, by any means; I'm just more confident Fed won't win 2.

EDIT: Re: odds on the other bet, I originally suggested the bet, then there was some discussion of odds in the ATP thread, a couple people saying the pro-Fed side was free money, and then nothing. So it didn't progress very far.

A good argument of why Nadal is more likely to win 3 than Fed 2 is the following:
-Nadal will win the French Open barring an injury.
On the other 3 slams he has a slight edge over Fed to win 2. Mainly because Nadal is on his prime and Federer is far from his prime.

There's just no contest for the French Open. The real question is whether he will do it without dropping a set again.

or if he'll win the US open without dropping one set next time around.

AO: Roddick
FO: Roddick
W: Roddick
US: Roddick

You heard it here first.

Nadal is favored over Fed in every tourney. That doesn't mean that he is a fave to win 3 or something. Try checking out some of the betting markets. Nadal is a dog in every tourney right now. Contrast this to prime Fed.

The discussion was whether it was more likely for Nadal to win 3 than for Fed to win 2. The argument wasn't that Nadal is a fave to win 3, just more likely than Federer winning 2. Also, to add, being more likely doesn't mean being more likely by a lot, it just means more likely, the difference could be 0.00000001%.

Is Nadal really a dog at the French?

I don't know, maybe just the Aussie, Wimbledon, and US, the French Open i'll give to John Isner. Arod's due anyways.

I know. I was trying to expand on how you'd come to a conclusion.

On the French, I have no clue. Maybe? I def overstepped the realm of "what I know" with that statement though. Other 3, fo sho dog. French... No clue. Alert me when Pinny/Betfair places odds.

It doesn't seem that way, as your comment wasn't relevant to the discussion.

If Nadal is considered less than a 50% on the French and he is healthy at the time, I would take the bet instantly.
He has won 5 of 6 times he has competed, the one time he lost being injured. The last two times he won, he won without dropping a set, in 2008 it included dominating Federer in the final.

The fact that you mentioned that he was a dog without checking, doesn't put much credibility to your comment. Despite that, I think he would be a dog in the other 3. At those slams, Federer, Djokovic, Soderling and Murray are contenders, enough to drop him below 50%. He would probably still be the favorite.

Best of 5 @ Roland Garros with a healthy Nadal. There may be no bigger lock in sports

Esther Vergeer?

Or Phil Taylor

He's just under 32% at the Australian according to Betfair. Federer is just under 24%.

Odds from Paddy Power:

How many Grand Slam Titles will R Nadal win in 2011?

None 4/1
Exactly 1 6/4
Exactly 2 15/8
Exactly 3 11/2
All Four 11/1


How many Grand Slam Titles will R Federer win in 2011?

None evens
Exactly 1 11/8
Exactly 2 5/1
Exactly 3 14/1
All Four 40/1

I never do, but I'm still a pretty good guy. And it doesn't keep me from being the greatest SEC football handicapper who ever lived, with really you know, nobody in second except maybe like Sham to Secretariat in '73. You'll have to excuse some of my rants when in stroke. It comes with the territory.

paddy make their odds based on their betting expectations from the general public, it is therefore no real indiciation of equity

example:
lets say in real life
nadal is 30/1 to win all 4

Paddy expect that most betters are overrating Nadal heavy due to recency base, ignoring his injury proneness etc etc and therefore obv are adjusting their odds to that