Great point

I don't know about going for 2 with :42 left and GB has 1 timeout, especially if you don't have that good of a play.

But the Ravens suck, their secondary is a bunch of backups and they're a huge dog in that game. Going for 2 given how undermanned they are is absolutely the right play to me with the deficit they were operating at.

Yeah, Rodgers might drive and beat them anyway. He might beat them anyway if they kick a XP, he might beat them in OT anyway, he can beat them a lot of ways.

Whatever they do probably isn't resulting in a W at the end of the day. They closed +9.5 for a reason.

i had this initial thought as well- but the days of teams especially with star qbs and a timeout kneeling out the clock in a tied game with 42 seconds left are over.

"It's mostly gut. The numbers are the numbers, but the numbers aren't perfect," Harbaugh said. "I can tell you this; I've shot a lot of holes in the numbers with the numbers guys. The numbers are never going to be perfect. They don't take everything into account, so you just make a decision. The numbers are part of it, but the numbers aren't the main decision."

NUMBERS GUYS

Right. But if GB has a negative play on first down they might pack it in if the score is tied. They definitely won't play as aggressive - which counts for something if BAL's decision to go for 2 is close to begin with.

Coaches who don't go for 2 down 8 are like the same people who don't understand the Monty Hall problem. It's really very simple: losing by 1 or 2 are the same result, you lose.

So if "numbers aren't the main decision," they are number 2 or number 3 or number ???

This is all so confusing to me. I am impressed that Harbaugh understands these things.

Any reason to go for 2 after being down 21 and scoring a TD in the fourth quarter


Was at the lions game and it felt dumb at the time.

sounds like somebody needs some NUMBERS GUYS

I guess you have to say how much does being tied vs up 1 decrease the chances GB gets a field goal? That is an interesting question.

Like I said, GB >>>> Ravens with all the injuries and just in general this year so they're probably gonna lose whatever they do, but going for 2 and trying to avoid OT is best.

I don't hate it, down 13 is a lot better than down 14, if you go for it and miss you're still only down 15 which is a two score game, if you make it and they tack on a field goal it is still only a two score game, in general in an end game situation if you're going to go for two at some point you want to do it sooner rather than later to have the information about the result. Now if they're completely bottling up Conner/Edmonds/Murray (was he still in the game at the time?) and the passing game is ineffective then maybe it's not the greatest plan if you don't have a good 2PC play

The answer to that question is how often they lose yards on the first 2 plays combined with the fact of how often they get to field goal range after 2 shitty plays vs how often they make it to fg range tied with no shitty plays.

Going for 2 there makes sense to me. The base assumption for ARI to win is to hold DET scoreless. Nobody cares if you lose by 1, 2, or 3. You are trying to maximize your chances of winning. Of course going for 2 increases your chances of losing by 2 or 3 (at the expense of a tie in regulation). But it increases your chance of winning.

Assume ARI comes back with 3 TDs and hold DET scoreless (which is basically all that matters) Keep the #s simple (PAT 100%, 2 pt 50%):
-down 15 fail 2 pt, down 9 fail 2 pt, down 3 (anything) = 25% LOSE
-down 15 fail 2 pt, down 9 make 2 pt, down 1 fail 2 pt = 12.5% LOSE
-down 15 fail 2 pt, down 9 make 2 pt, down 1 make 2 pt = 12.5% WIN
-down 15 make 2 pt, down 13 make XP, down 6 make XP = 50% WIN

So, ARI would have 62.5 - 37.5 = +25% win expectation. Kicking PATs ties the game and gets ARI to OT, which arguably would be close to zero win expectation (or maybe slightly favor ARI).

In addition to giving you more permutations to win in regulation, as described very clearly above, it also gives some very small backdoor outs to tie the game if Detroit kicks a fg (would only happen if ari converts to make it a 13 point game and det kicks a fg on their next possession to go up 16 instead of 17). Considering Arizona should already be in onside kick mode with 5 mins left, it’s an additional consideration for going for 2.

Matt Rhule’s QB carousel. He’s just clicking buttons out there thinking he’s in college.

FCS Title Game today, Brent Vigen, coach of Montana State with a gem:

3rd & 2 at NDSU 28
(11:57 - 1st) Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Lance McCutcheon

4th & 2 at NDSU 28
(11:49 - 1st) Blake Glessner punt for 28 yds for a touchback

Can not possibly be true.

If it is, /thread.

I went by the ESPN play-by-play, here's a better explanation:

You can watch it here @ 1:10 mark.... it's still a head-scratcher

Thanks! Just watched it and have no idea what the strategy behind it was--unless they thought the guy taking the flip might have an open run and he had no arm at all so his bail-out move was to punt???

I would love to read the coach's explanation. I don't think I could suffer through listening to somebody that dumb trying to explain it verbally.

Why is Fat Mike playing Dak in this game

Because, fat mike.

Staley

Trying to process if that timeout cost them the playoffs

timeout totally irrelevant to them losing.

what he actually should have done is call a timeout right before they snapped the ball for 2nd down, and burn his last timeout right before 3rd down. that way, he disarms himself and lets the raiders know they can safely kneel without being forced to punt.