Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 854 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

something like

75% make 4th/1 game over
then other 25% you have 75% to stop a TD drive, so like 94% total

if FG 100%, then chance of them scoring TD and 2PC and winning in OT is 25%*50%*50%
= 6% for DAL, so 94% again for PIT

so if they thought blocked FG was a real chance, then going for it better. I guess you could argue PIT > 50% in OT too, maybe back to being the same

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11-09-2020 , 01:57 AM

#21327

VincentVega

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Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,621

Does that all include the fact that dallas has a historically bad defense? When they kicked I was 100% they were losing the game

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11-09-2020 , 02:02 AM

#21328

businessdude

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 10,913

this is for PIT going for 4th and 1 and not kicking

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11-09-2020 , 02:16 AM

#21329

VincentVega

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Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,621

Lol whoops. Nevermind me

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11-09-2020 , 08:27 PM

#21330

tarheels2222

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Yeah and the reason I brought up Gilbert vs Dak is that it’s way less likely Gilbert goes almost the length of the field with no TOs, gets the TD, gets the 2 point, and then also leads his team to victory in OT. Dak way more likely to make that happen.

Boswell had also missed two PATs, which is what the kick would have been. So even if it’s not blocked, he’s not 100% to convert.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 11-09-2020 at 08:34 PM.

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11-09-2020 , 09:27 PM

#21331

wheatrich

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 21,239

Haley is now the offensive coordinator of a high school

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11-09-2020 , 10:14 PM

#21332

stinkypete

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Jets down 7-3 early in the game, 3rd & 7 on NE 45, gain 4 yards on play but take a holding penalty. Belichick declines to make it 4th & 3 on NE 41. Bonehead play on the surface, but Jets punt and Billy confirmed galaxy brain.

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11-10-2020 , 03:00 AM

#21333

VincentVega

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Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,621

He knew either A. Gase is a pussy or B. The jets are tanking and it's in their best interest to punt. It could be both of those or C. Gase is too stupid and doesnt know punting is wrong.

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11-10-2020 , 10:31 PM

#21334

tarheels2222

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I pick C.

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11-22-2020 , 07:46 PM

#21335

EnglishLad72

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Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,654

Chargers up 12 with 4th and 1 from inside the 10

Try and draw the Jets offside instead of just going for it

Jets don't bite, Chargers burn TO they'll probably need

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11-22-2020 , 08:56 PM

#21336

KanMan

adept

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 901

Arod spiking on 1st down from the 15 with 43 seconds left down 3.

To highlight how stupid this was, after a 7 yard pass on 2nd down, he then decided to kill as much of the clock as possible before the 3rd down play.

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11-23-2020 , 12:53 AM

#21337

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

Quote:

Originally Posted by KanMan

Not trying to be a homer douche - but I was like holy crap Mahomes would never do that.

90% of Reid's wasted timeout and 4th down dumb decisions ended with Mahomes.

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11-23-2020 , 05:38 PM

#21338

spring83

Jack of all trades

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 3,370

Quote:

Originally Posted by KanMan

Was watching this and thought for sure it was going to be a fake spike, as they had way too much time and too deep to spike it and waste a down. But then they actually spiked it. Must have been the massive crowd and their noise that threw them off. Lol Packers.

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11-23-2020 , 10:23 PM

#21339

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by EnglishLad72

Chargers up 12 with 4th and 1 from inside the 10

Try and draw the Jets offside instead of just going for it

Jets don't bite, Chargers burn TO they'll probably need

Burning a TO is unreal there

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11-26-2020 , 09:06 PM

#21340

TimmayB

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Bump for Fat Mike’s Turkey Day Special.

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11-26-2020 , 09:10 PM

#21341

tarheels2222

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That fake punt was a thing of beauty.

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11-26-2020 , 11:16 PM

#21342

GodgersWOAT

banned

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 3,524

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11-27-2020 , 12:17 AM

#21343

andyhop

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,253

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarheels2222

That fake punt was a thing of beauty.

Hard to tell not seeing all the angles but it looked like it should have worked if either the outside guy blocked the defender instead of running past him thereby allowing the ball carrier to run it or the guy with the ball threw it over the unblocked defender to the now free outside guy instead of holding on to it

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11-27-2020 , 11:19 AM

#21344

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

Plus there was another guy just standing wide open 30 yards downfield

It worked in the sense that the first down was there is the players executed, but the problem is you are asking players to execute things that they never try to execute.

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11-27-2020 , 12:14 PM

#21345

Crazy Joe Davola

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,165

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgojackets

the problem is you are asking players to execute things that they never try to execute.

That's why they practice the play

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11-27-2020 , 02:16 PM

#21346

tarheels2222

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Most plays would succeed every time if they’re executed perfectly.

The bigger question is why did Fat Mike run a fake punt down 4 from the Dal 24 on 4th and 10 with 12 minutes remaining in the 4th?

Spoiler:

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11-29-2020 , 04:47 PM

#21347

darO

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10 minutes left in the 4th at the 10 yard line with first and 5 Chargers down 10

1st: Run up the middle to bring it to 2nd and 1

2nd: Run up the middle for no gain

3rd: speed route that gets blown up for a loss of 2 yards

4th: Sends the offense out then calls a time out with 18 on the play clock, then kicks a field goal

Anthony Lynn everyone

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11-29-2020 , 05:19 PM

#21348

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,754

AFC West putting on a show, first Gruden takes the points from inside the 10 to cut the Falcons' lead to 17 midway through the third quarter, then the Chargers down 10 opt to run Ekeler up the middle to keep the clock running right at the death when they need two scores