Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 850 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

9ers had the ball with 5:42 left, down 25-14 and with all 3 timeouts.

They completed 14 passes over two drives, and not a single time did they get out of bounds. The game ended with them trying Hail Mary passes from around the 40. Just a stupid team and a stupid coach.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 08:01 AM

#21227

Myrmidon7328

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,133

Quote:

Originally Posted by KanMan

It's almost like the Eagles covered the sidelines and gave their #3 QB the middle of the field. But they would never do that.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 08:35 AM

#21228

jwd

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,681

2:02 left, 49ers down 5, with two timeouts and have to kickoff to the Eagles. Am I wrong in thinking kicking it out of bounds is correct? Can't kick it out of the endzone and they actually got pretty lucky that the onsides kick only took one second.

I feel like saving 40 seconds 100% of the time is better than onsides kick equity + saving 40 seconds ~25% of the time.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 08:54 AM

#21229

Myrmidon7328

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,133

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwd

Yeah this might be correct. I guess I haven't really ever thought of how much clock gets eaten when a player dives on the ball - presumably on an onside kick, the return team is coached to give themselves up immediately.

The other thing about pinning them at the 25 is that you probably need like 10-15 less yards on the ensuing drive. The Eagles punter is good though, so maybe that effect is only like 5-10 yards.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 08:58 AM

#21230

brandoncla

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 5,728

Chargers have a 24-7 lead and the ball with :47 left in the 1st half pinned down to their own 10 yard line with a rookie QB. Bucs have 1 timeout.

Lynn runs a draw play, they fumble, Bucs score td.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 09:52 AM

#21231

Nittery

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 460

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myrmidon7328

I think when you give yourself up immediately it's basically a fair catch and no time should run.

Maybe the real bad decision was not trying to stand up and get the clock under two minutes.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 10:39 AM

#21232

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by brandoncla

Chargers have a 24-7 lead and the ball with :47 left in the 1st half pinned down to their own 10 yard line with a rookie QB. Bucs have 1 timeout.

Lynn runs a draw play, they fumble, Bucs score td.

It’s been a while since a team has gotten punished for this. Love to see

Quote

10-05-2020 , 10:58 AM

#21233

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,257

The one negative of the play at 2:01 from SF standpoint is that the Eagles get a freeroll at passing the ball (of course they just ran it anyway). Either way it saves them the timeout though, which trumps everything else.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 12:05 PM

#21234

jwd

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMan42

This is a good point. Shows you how little Doug Pederson trusts Wentz when he ran on the play at 2:01.

Coaches used to be really bad with this. Calling a timeout in these spots before the 2 minute warning and saving 1-4 seconds while giving the other team a run/pass option.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 12:11 PM

#21235

jwd

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by brandoncla

Chargers have a 24-7 lead and the ball with :47 left in the 1st half pinned down to their own 10 yard line with a rookie QB. Bucs have 1 timeout.

Lynn runs a draw play, they fumble, Bucs score td.

Reminded me of this from the Bengals/Eagles game that ended in a tie:

End of 4th, one timeout left:

1st & 10 at CIN 25
(0:21 - 4th) J.Burrow kneels to CIN 24 for -1 yards.

End of OT, no timeouts left:

1st & 10 at CIN 11
(0:13 - OT) (Shotgun) J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 20 for 9 yards (B.Graham).

A lot of these coaches are just clicking buttons.

Last edited by jwd; 10-05-2020 at 12:18 PM.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 01:58 PM

#21236

KanMan

adept

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 901

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myrmidon7328

It's almost like the Eagles covered the sidelines and gave their #3 QB the middle of the field. But they would never do that.

Sure, but on 2 to 3 of those plays, the 49er WRs ran upfield trying to get a couple of extra yards instead of fighting to get OOB.

Separately, when one team wants you to do something (throw it in the middle and keep the clock running), maybe you shouldn't keep doing that thing?

Quote

10-05-2020 , 02:02 PM

#21237

jwd

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by KanMan

I think it was a reasonable strategy, the Eagles seemed to focus on taking away the sidelines. The problem was they were checking down for 6-8 yards sometimes when an incompletion would have been better. You are going to get 1st downs in these spots, so on early downs you need to get at least 15 yards to justify throwing it over the middle.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 02:27 PM

#21238

KanMan

adept

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 901

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwd

I agree with what you're saying above.

Let me try to rephrase what I think the 49ers screwed up:
Having 5:42 while holding the other team to a 20 second possession (that milked the 9ers timeouts) should be enough time to get two scores. You shouldn't lose because you ran out of time; you should lose because the defense stopped you once.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 02:38 PM

#21239

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,737

Fat Mike Forever

Quote

10-05-2020 , 05:42 PM

#21240

spring83

Jack of all trades

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 3,370

49ers coach going for 1 when down 2 was funny. Scored stayed 8-7 for a bit after too. Was hoping it would end at that score somehow.

So glad BoB got fired after the game with my Vikes. We needed that win.

Quote

10-05-2020 , 05:46 PM

#21241

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

they got it but going for two after an opening td is dumb

Quote

10-06-2020 , 05:34 AM

#21242

jwd

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgojackets

they got it but going for two after an opening td is dumb

Going for two there was right on every level. It had a higher EV than kicking the EP and they were the underdog which means they should be taking the higher variance choice when it's close.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spring83

49ers coach going for 1 when down 2 was funny. Scored stayed 8-7 for a bit after too. Was hoping it would end at that score somehow.

Not only did Shanahan kick the the EP to make it 8-7 Eagles he also kicked the EP to make it 14-8 with 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. That is terrible.

Quote

10-06-2020 , 11:21 PM

#21243

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

Going for 2 first gives your opponent perfect information. EV is irrelevant since what matters is the percent of time you end up with more points than your opponent but EV treats winning 8-6 as better than 7-6. You only come out ahead the 25% of the time you make it and they dont, but half the time you miss and give them an XP for the lead.

Quote

10-07-2020 , 01:23 AM

#21244

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgojackets

EV is irrelevant...

You're kidding, right?

In that situation, if EV(kick EP) ~ EV(2 PT) then I agree with you 100%.

Quote

10-07-2020 , 04:41 AM

#21245

jwd

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgojackets

I'd agree if it were in the 2nd half. It was the first quarter.

Quote

10-08-2020 , 09:19 PM

#21246

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Bruce Arians ran the Brady sneak on 4th & Inches on his own 20 in the 2Q up 10-0

Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb

Quote

10-08-2020 , 10:10 PM

#21247

Alpha Fish

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,831

seems correct

Quote

10-09-2020 , 12:17 AM

#21248

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Bruce Arians ran the Brady sneak on 4th & Inches on his own 20 in the 2Q up 10-0

Should’ve been more clear. I loved it. However late in the game Arians blew it like almost every other coach does. Attempting FG on 4th & 1 cost TB 8% WE.

Quote

10-09-2020 , 12:28 AM

#21249

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Should’ve been more clear. I loved it. However late in the game Arians blew it like almost every other coach does. Attempting FG on 4th & 1 cost TB 8% WE.

Yeah, it was actually closer to 4th and 2. In a shootout style game I think going for 4th down would have been the clear play. In a lower scoring game in which Foles was clearly struggling and their running game was awful, it is a close call. 4:49 remaining, I was not surprised at all with the FG unit trotting out. And anticipating Brady getting shut out on 2 drives to kick a FG is probably not wise.

I admit I'm biased because I needed CH to win by 1 and total under 44.5 to basically win both sides of every bet I made.

Quote

10-09-2020 , 12:31 AM

#21250

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Should’ve been more clear. I loved it. However late in the game Arians blew it like almost every other coach does. Attempting FG on 4th & 1 cost TB 8% WE.

Where's this % from? Mike McCarthy friends require sources when I tell them stuff. I'm guessing it's same site I told them last year (which I now forget), which they discounted for some unknown reason.

Quote

Page 850 of 889

First

350 650 750 800 830 840 845 846 847 848 849 850 851 852 853 854 855 860 870

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 850 of 889

First

350 650 750 800 830 840 845 846 847 848 849 850 851 852 853 854 855 860 870

Last