Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 889 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb

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02-20-2024 , 04:40 PM

#22201

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,738

yes i was mainly joking as a thought exercise. now i'm going to dig my heels in and say it's correct!

Quote

02-20-2024 , 05:04 PM

#22202

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,257

I mean it's not the most insanely unlikely thing ever I guess. A couple of matching ~9min scoring drives gets you a chunk of the way into OT2, then exchange a few punts and you're at "halftime" of OT.

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02-20-2024 , 05:12 PM

#22203

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,738

Matching TD you go for 2 and get a penalty. You going for 2 again? I think so yes.

What if you get a 2nd penalty?

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02-20-2024 , 05:38 PM

#22204

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,257

All depends on game flow. Obviously conventional wisdom says defenses are toast as OT wears on, but I don't think it's a given either.

In a game that was, say, 10-10 going into OT, and both OT touchdowns were like pulling teeth with defenses still looking solid (maybe throw in some bad conditions too), I'm not even sure going for 2 is an absolute must.

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02-20-2024 , 06:56 PM

#22205

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Matching TD you go for 2 and get a penalty. You going for 2 again? I think so yes.

What if you get a 2nd penalty?

Is it a 5 or 15 yard penalty?

You basically take the conversion rate from that spot and compare that to what happens if you don't score. The lower % you use for the 3rd drive resulting in a score the higher your 2PT conversion % has to be.

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02-20-2024 , 08:57 PM

#22206

meshanti

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,831

In a situation where MaHomes can run around all he wants w/o fear of a holding being called, ever, a KC win was inevitable.

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02-20-2024 , 09:24 PM

#22207

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

I worked out the #s a few pages back with kicking FG to tie or go on 4th down to win. It's basically the same here, xp for tie or 2 pt conversion for win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Let y equal the probability of a team scoring after receiving the kickoff when any score wins the game. If y is assumed to be equal for both teams, the probability then of a team kicking off and losing the game after 2 possessions is:
...

Code:

      min win   approx
y     equity    yd line*
0.3   0.412        3
0.4   0.375        3-4
0.5   0.333        4-5
0.6   0.286        6
0.7   0.231        8
0.8   0.167        10

*-my guess

So 5 yard penalty go if SF scores >= 70% of time. With 15 yard penalty almost always kick xp.

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02-20-2024 , 11:12 PM

#22208

smartDFS

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,722

gotta be more liberal with the 2pt go because of scenarios where SF doesn't score next possession but you also don't

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02-21-2024 , 10:48 AM

#22209

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

So 5 yard penalty go if SF scores >= 70% of time. With 15 yard penalty almost always kick xp.

Any adjustment needed for the chances of a miss on the ensuing 47yd XP? Probably negligible difference given good conditions + Butker, but could be a concern in different circumstances.

Still probably few if any cases where you'd rather go for 2 from the 17.

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02-21-2024 , 07:57 PM

#22210

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMan42

The calcs change, but the result does not change much.

Let's go with 9ers winning 77% of the time if KC makes 47 yd xp. If Butker's success rate is 80%, then 9ers will win 0.8 * 0.77 + 0.2 = 0.816.

So KC should try for the 2 pt conversion if their success rate exceeds (1 - 0.816) = 0.184. I don't see anything close to that from the 17 yd line, so xp is likely best.
------
With a 5 yard penalty, that would require Butker to kick a 38 yd xp. I'd put success rate at 92%, which makes 9ers win chance 0.9 * 0.77 + 0.08 = 0.773.

So KC should try 2 pt conversion from 7 if their success rate exceeds (1 - 0.773) = 0.227, which seems reasonable.

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02-21-2024 , 07:58 PM

#22211

StoppedRainingMen

Player Hater of the Year

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 53,701

Again, **** this thread for existing

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02-21-2024 , 08:00 PM

#22212

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen

Again, **** this thread for existing

Are you still bothered a week later?

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02-21-2024 , 08:00 PM

#22213

StoppedRainingMen

Player Hater of the Year

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 53,701

It’s like a scab that keeps getting picked at before it’s had enough time to heal and all of the sudden yay fresh blood

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02-21-2024 , 11:46 PM

#22214

Tom Ames

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 45,785

This thread transcends Kyle Shanahan.
Avert your eyes if you must.

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04-08-2024 , 09:14 AM

#22215

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 47,047

I know it's the UFL, but this deserves a bump:

Houston 18- DC 23. 4th quarter 2:44 left in the 4th. HOU ball, 3rd and 20 on HOU 41.

Complete pass for 7 yards, 4th and 13. Clock is running down. HOU has 2 TOs and the 2min. Warning. They get their punt team on the field and with 2:11 remaining...DC's coach calls a TO...

DC didn't have too many men on the field, and even if they did it was 4th and 13. He just called a TO to apparently stop the clock and preserve time. Why? No one knows.

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04-08-2024 , 11:11 AM

#22216

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,257

That's a fun one. I mean even if you still had your regular defense out there (thinking they were gonna go for it), the worst case scenario is that there's no one to return the punt and they down it inside the 5. Like...maybe if there were no chance the clock ticks down to 2:00 during the punt anyway, then it's worth it?

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