Fat & Blokes special resolution 000003: bulk, booze and bullseyes (sixfour)
View Poll Results: Pick an option
I do hereby declare a vote for AYE (2.5% of capital per investment, total of 10%)
21
60.00%
I do hereby declare a vote for AYE (5% of capital per investment, total of 20%)
14
40.00%
I do hereby declare a vote for NAY
0
0%
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 13,621
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
MINIATURE ARCHERY SPECIAL RESOLUTION
In the World Matchplay, where we're investing against Michael van Gerwen, I have the following four piece investment package for special resolution consideration:
1) Invest in Peter Wright to win his quarter of the draw
Wright has won three events in the past four days and is in the reddest of red hot form. Over the past two days, he has been averaging consistently higher than the whole field and only one other player in his quarter is in the top half of that statistic. He has a solid string of rotund possible opponents, all of which I project him to beat more than 70%+ of the time, most of them 80%+ - in the first round, this guy:
Stephen Bunting hasn't been relevant for four years and is just making up the numbers at this stage. Next, unless the weakest seed in the field pulls off an upset, we get this guy:
John Henderson is a decent enough player but can't live with Wright over a longer length of game. Finally, in the quarters, he'll probably play this guy:
I can't take someone with the nickname The Ferret seriously. He could, I suppose, face Daryl Gurney or a couple of rotund qualifiers instead, but Jonny Clayton is the hardest possible opponent, and as stated, Wright ought to win this nearly three times out of four.
All in all, Wright should win this quarter more than half the time, but it is currently 7/4 on the investfair sportsbook, so very solid value. But you want rotund people to bet on, so here goes:
2) Invest in Ricky Evans to defeat Daryl Gurney
Beyond the rotund features, prior use of Baby Shark as walk on music and wearing of various comedy masks during said walk-ons, Evans is producing an extremely close level of play to Gurney, who I've consistently pegged as underrated for the past couple of years, where I've correctly called for him to lose in the worlds at 5/2 and 5/1. Evans is 2/1 in some books and this is a coinflip as far as I'm concerned.
3) Invest in Mervyn King to defeat Nathan Aspinall
Another rotund player, King was the guy that knocked MvG out of the previous major this year and is widely available at 2/1 to defeat Aspinall for reasons unknown, like the last game this is much closer to a flip and I'd have said 5/4 would be a fairer line
4) Invest in Danny Noppert to defeat Gary Anderson
Not so much rotund, but a hugely underrated player that's available at 5/2 or 11/4 in places, which has been backed in a fair bit after Anderson lost to an unknown German at the weekend. Gary played alright the last couple of days, but like King above, is probably only really a 55% or so favourite - Anderson hasn't played much at all this season due to injury, has lost to some complete mugs and the sample from the past couple of days isn't convincing.
As all four part of the investment have similar odds and similar edges, I would recommend an even investment in each segment of the special resolution - 2.5% on each for a total of 10% would not seem excessive in my eyes, but if the resolution were to be passed I'd leave it in the capable hands of fellow partners to decide. The first matches are on Saturday so time is of the essence
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 29,301
2.5% per is perfect
let's get it done
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 25,536
thought this was a gambling forum... nits