F&P LLP: week 10, still solvent. Partner Vote
View Poll Results: THREE
08-23-2019
, 06:01 AM
Quote:
Well I better propose this now incase there is no spaces available next week:
RANGERS (draw no bet) v lolceltic - 1st September
3 points to make:
1) it's lolceltic folks
2) Imagine what it would feel like for the celtic guys in here having to put their hard earned money on their biggest rivals in probably the biggest derby in any sport
3) lolceltic
Best to do the draw no bet option just to be safe but Rangers have won the last 2 meetings at Ibrox and this will be a hat-trick, Celtic have been **** lately getting knocked out the champions league and only squeaking past lowly Dunfermline at home in the cup in extra time whereas RANGERS have won 8 out of their 9 competitive matches so far this season, the only blip being a 0-0 draw away to Progres Niederkorn when they were already safely through on aggregate anyway
RANGERS (draw no bet) v lolceltic - 1st September
3 points to make:
1) it's lolceltic folks
2) Imagine what it would feel like for the celtic guys in here having to put their hard earned money on their biggest rivals in probably the biggest derby in any sport
3) lolceltic
Best to do the draw no bet option just to be safe but Rangers have won the last 2 meetings at Ibrox and this will be a hat-trick, Celtic have been **** lately getting knocked out the champions league and only squeaking past lowly Dunfermline at home in the cup in extra time whereas RANGERS have won 8 out of their 9 competitive matches so far this season, the only blip being a 0-0 draw away to Progres Niederkorn when they were already safely through on aggregate anyway
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc1
The 8 in a row champions to win at the monkey dome Sept 1st.
Poker crazy can stick his monkey loving tips up his arse cos if you bet them and the draw at whatever price we'll be losing hard earned currency.
I could list numerous reasons why this is a good bet but the main one being they are still shite and we'll batter
Poker crazy can stick his monkey loving tips up his arse cos if you bet them and the draw at whatever price we'll be losing hard earned currency.
I could list numerous reasons why this is a good bet but the main one being they are still shite and we'll batter
Quote:
I propose a general investment portfolio in the Austrian Darts Championship the weekend after next. They've not held all the qualifiers yet, and they don't hold the draw until the day before the event, but this latest event in the European Tour is the bread and butter of darts betting where it features a bunch of lesser known players that I have hundreds of games of data on, and hence very accurate evaluations of how they should play. I would split any capital trusted in this into 0.5% chunks, and fire on 6/8/10 matches where I evaluate there are edges
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This open to anyone now? If so I have something long-term and not necessarily popular:
Chelsea - Premier League Winner without Man City @ around 40/1
City are gonna walk the league this year.
Liverpool are rightly favourites in this market, but at 1.45 look far too short considering they were matched for long periods against both Chelsea and Southampton in matches already this season. If an injury happens to Salah/Mane they could start to look distinctly average.
Tottenham are 2nd favourites. They've only finished top 2 once in recent history, and that was behind Chelsea 2 years ago
United and Arsenal have had flattering results so far whereas Chelsea have been a lot better than their results, and I think the market has overreacted to their dropped points. Their next 10 fixtures include games against 2 promoted sides and 6 of the 7 teams that finished bottom half last season...if they get into a run of form they could pick up a lot of points and build confidence for their younger players like PULISIC and MOUNT, which will be needed for the rest of the season. The main tough run of fixtures comes in February, giving plenty of times for Chelsea to get MOMENTUM on their side ahead of the crucial fixtures against the main contenders for this market.
Chelsea - Premier League Winner without Man City @ around 40/1
City are gonna walk the league this year.
Liverpool are rightly favourites in this market, but at 1.45 look far too short considering they were matched for long periods against both Chelsea and Southampton in matches already this season. If an injury happens to Salah/Mane they could start to look distinctly average.
Tottenham are 2nd favourites. They've only finished top 2 once in recent history, and that was behind Chelsea 2 years ago
United and Arsenal have had flattering results so far whereas Chelsea have been a lot better than their results, and I think the market has overreacted to their dropped points. Their next 10 fixtures include games against 2 promoted sides and 6 of the 7 teams that finished bottom half last season...if they get into a run of form they could pick up a lot of points and build confidence for their younger players like PULISIC and MOUNT, which will be needed for the rest of the season. The main tough run of fixtures comes in February, giving plenty of times for Chelsea to get MOMENTUM on their side ahead of the crucial fixtures against the main contenders for this market.
Quote:
FIBA World Cup
The odds on investfair currently stand at
USA 4/9
Serbia 4/1
Greece 12/1
Spain 18/1
France 30/1
and then some stupid stuff including
Australia 40/1
Lithuania 50/1
lolCanada, Argentina 70/1
etc
[Spain&Serbia seem close to locks to get to the semis (because of the draw) - which I think explains their odds.]
I think the market
I propose we invest in USA and France ~- with 75% of this investment going on USA and 25% going on France.
(fwiw I think the expected %-returns on selling all the other teams apart from Serbia are good too - but those are bets are 1/10+ )
The odds on investfair currently stand at
USA 4/9
Serbia 4/1
Greece 12/1
Spain 18/1
France 30/1
and then some stupid stuff including
Australia 40/1
Lithuania 50/1
lolCanada, Argentina 70/1
etc
[Spain&Serbia seem close to locks to get to the semis (because of the draw) - which I think explains their odds.]
I think the market
- severely underestimates the US's chance of winning - I'd put it close to 80%.
- underestimates France (anywhere between 4% and 5%).
- overestimates Greece (similar to France)
- overestimates Spain (2% or less).
- and imo the other teams have a collective probability of less than 0.5%.
I propose we invest in USA and France ~- with 75% of this investment going on USA and 25% going on France.
(fwiw I think the expected %-returns on selling all the other teams apart from Serbia are good too - but those are bets are 1/10+ )
Quote:
Back Green Bay +3.5 against Chicago @ 1.86
Fat Mike is gone. A team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers is getting more than a field goal against a team quarterbacked by Mitchell Trubisky. This game is still 2 weeks away but the line has gone down from GB +4 to GB +3.5 so we need to get on this free money while we can.
Fat Mike is gone. A team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers is getting more than a field goal against a team quarterbacked by Mitchell Trubisky. This game is still 2 weeks away but the line has gone down from GB +4 to GB +3.5 so we need to get on this free money while we can.
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WARNING: This is NOT a free money proposal, but rather what I think is a solid SKLANSKY BUCKS investment.
Proposal: invest in Snow (P) beating Flash (T) in the Afreeca Starleague Season 8 Finals at 5.5.
Flash goes by many nicknames. Some call him the Ultimate Weapon, others simply call him God, but most would agree on calling him the GOAT. This will be his 5th finals in 7 seasons of ASL, having already won 3 of them. Combined with his 6 MSL and OSL titles, that makes him the most successful Starcraft player of all time.
But wait, I thought you said to bet on Snow?
I did. You see, Flash, as good as he is, isn't infallible. He plays the Terran race, which historically has struggled against the Protoss race, which Snow plays. And Snow just happens to be the best Protoss vs Terran player of all time (at least that's the reputation he carries around).
Let's look at Snow's matches vs Terran in recent major tournaments:
ASL S4: Group stage vs firebathero (W 1-0)
ASL S5: Group stage vs Mong and Last (W 1-0 and W 1-0)
ASL S5: Quarterfinals vs Flash (W 3-2)
KSL S1: Group stage vs Sharp (W 3-0)
ASL S7: Group stage vs Tinkle (W 1-0)
ASL S7: Group stage vs Last (L 0-1)
ASL S8: Quarterfinals vs Last (W 3-0)
As we can see, Snow rarely loses against Terran, even managing to take a best-of-5 series against Flash in ASL S5.
I don't think he's the favorite to win because rooting against Terran, and Flash specifically, always ends in tears, but I believe a 450% ROI is too good a shot to pass up.
Proposal: invest in Snow (P) beating Flash (T) in the Afreeca Starleague Season 8 Finals at 5.5.
Flash goes by many nicknames. Some call him the Ultimate Weapon, others simply call him God, but most would agree on calling him the GOAT. This will be his 5th finals in 7 seasons of ASL, having already won 3 of them. Combined with his 6 MSL and OSL titles, that makes him the most successful Starcraft player of all time.
But wait, I thought you said to bet on Snow?
I did. You see, Flash, as good as he is, isn't infallible. He plays the Terran race, which historically has struggled against the Protoss race, which Snow plays. And Snow just happens to be the best Protoss vs Terran player of all time (at least that's the reputation he carries around).
Let's look at Snow's matches vs Terran in recent major tournaments:
ASL S4: Group stage vs firebathero (W 1-0)
ASL S5: Group stage vs Mong and Last (W 1-0 and W 1-0)
ASL S5: Quarterfinals vs Flash (W 3-2)
KSL S1: Group stage vs Sharp (W 3-0)
ASL S7: Group stage vs Tinkle (W 1-0)
ASL S7: Group stage vs Last (L 0-1)
ASL S8: Quarterfinals vs Last (W 3-0)
As we can see, Snow rarely loses against Terran, even managing to take a best-of-5 series against Flash in ASL S5.
I don't think he's the favorite to win because rooting against Terran, and Flash specifically, always ends in tears, but I believe a 450% ROI is too good a shot to pass up.
08-23-2019
, 08:37 AM
08-23-2019
, 09:33 AM
Spoiler:
Na i'm just taking the piss, i'm not actually a Rangers fan (mon the shire!) although my entire family supports them so my dad might disown me if I ever backed Celtic lol but I do think Rangers will at least get a draw at home
08-23-2019
, 10:18 AM
08-23-2019
, 12:25 PM
08-23-2019
, 12:27 PM
450% on the LICKY BOOM BOOM DOWN
