the niners qb's that have taken snaps since jeff garcia:

2004: tim rattay, ken dorsey, cody pickett
2005: alex smith, tim rattay, ken dorsey, cody pickett
2006: alex smith
2007: trent dilfer, alex smith, shaun hill, chris weinke (wtf i don't even remember him being there)
2008: shaun hill, jt o'sullivan
2009: alex smith, shaun hill
2010: alex smith, troy smith

first time since 2003 i'm genuinely excited to see a niner quarterback. feels goodman

I would like to say that Alex Smith rockets right up the backup list. If you said that Alex Smith was my Backup QB I'd say "I'm happy with that". Would probably still take Orton #1 but I think Orton is better than a few starters in this league.

Also, Smith will be fine, he'll realize how nice it is to get paid all that money to suddenly not get hit by people.

Smith would be at the top of the backup list? do you have any more bold statements?

Very excited to see kaep starting next week. a little butthurt though. def hope he succeeds from here on out.

[x] was completely wrong, i bow to you irm, and assani

Seems like Harbough didn't want to give out the info before sunday, but it was leaked to the media.

Should be a pretty interesting game vs. the Saints.

Well I'll defer to Harbaugh, but I maintain that everyone is being way too hard on Alex Smith. I wish the best for Kaep, though. Whatever gets the Niners a Superbowl victory!

gregg rosenthal ‏@greggrosenthal
Harbaugh has done such a great coaching job that people are actually outraged he's benching Alex Smith.

Geeez...can u imagine if a white guy said that?!

Lol it's in madden

I was most impressed with Colin's shorter windup against the Bears. I seem to recall him previously having a much bigger windup and obviously a slow release to go along with it. He wasn't Byron Leftwich windup bad, but he had one. The release he had against the Bears wasn't quick by any standards but it wasn't completely awful anymore.

His very slow release was the only big negative he had going into the draft from what I recall. There was also concern about playing almost exclusively from the shotgun or pistol as he did in college but his slow release was mentioned often.

The next most impressive thing was how well he changed speeds on his passes depending on what was called for to get the completion.

I think going with Colin is the way to go especially with 5-6 games left in the season and SF cruising towards a division crown. They can afford to take a look and see if Colin really improves the offense. If it doesn't work they can go back to Alex for the last couple games of the regular season and be ready for the playoffs.

Now that I think about it, this actually makes more sense than what I said.

Still disagree here though. Sportswriters get paid to be results-oriented armchair quarterbacks. They'll be talking about how Harbaugh made a big mistake and how they would have chose Smith in their fantasy world where they are knowledgeable enough to run a football team. Just as they would exaggerate about CK if he does well, they'll do the same if he doesn't do well.

--------------------------

Perhaps Dilfer is butthurt because that might have happened to him at some point and it ended up ****. I have to check his info to see if it did.

EDIT: Ah, butthurt stems from him mentoring Smith when Smith first started in the NFL. So, he is quite partial towards him.

I dug up some scouting reports and they all say basically what you say. Weird, slow throwing motion, not having played under center and his slender frame/injury concerns are the downsides.

Very intelligent, coachable, super athletic, arm strength, leadership abilities and he started every game after becoming the starter. One report said teams should like that he had a future in baseball being drafted by the Cubs (dunno how future and cubs works together but...) but choose football.

Apparently he had the Mannings giggling like school girls:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/6...couting-report

more:

http://draftbreakdown.com/scouting-r...lin-kaepernick
http://www.newerascouting.com/2011/0...outing-report/
http://walterfootball.com/scoutingre...rnick_greg.php

I thought he looked a little reckless holding the ball when running against the rams?

Mario Manningham is the Niners #2 receiver. He was the Giants #3, and way behind Cruz/Nicks in terms of ability. Crabtree isn't a whole lot better than Manningham.

Colin Kaepernick's sack rate is worse than Smith's.

How are people coming to the conclusion the Niner's passing offense (minus Smith) is elite other than reasoning "Smith sux so the rest of the passing offense must be awesome since they're performing ok."?

Also, meh on the decision. If Alex Smith won't be butthurt and can hop back in if it's determined Kaep isn't as good as everyone thought he was based on one game, then whatever. Sucks for him to be playing so well and get benched because he got concussed though.

I think I am underrating Kaep's running ability and how much it can help their already elite rushing offense. Also forgot about Kaep's throwing motion -- a big reason I didn't like him a ton coming out of college was because of that jacked up motion. If he fixed it that quickly I'm more impressed. This all hinges to me on how well he understands the offense right now and how well he can read NFL defenses and make adjustments/quick decisions. Coaches obviously would have way more info on this from practice, but if Kaep already has it all down then the decision is fine I guess. As long as the offense as a whole adjusts quickly.

I guess the main reason I'm not big on the decision is the cost associated with the entire offense adjusting to a new QB with 1 start, on a team more than halfway through the season that's already a Super Bowl favorite. That seems mildly crazy to me unless we KNOW Kaep is just a lot better. Plus the potential psychological impact of benching injured dudes who were playing really well -- not just for Smith but the whole team. If Kaep is that much better than Smith (which, at this point, I obviously disagree with) then it makes a lot more sense to me.

Edit -- Also, if Kaep is clearly that much better why did it take a Smith concussion for him to start? Is Harbaugh really basing this decision primarily on one game?

AZ replaced their QB after 1 quarter . . . with a 13-0 lead.

Crabtree is miles better than Manningham and a legit #1 on any team. He'd be a lock for 80/1200/8 with an above avg QB

nice sample there. Running QB's in general have higher sack rates and that is somewhat nullified by their high y/c

I don't think anyone is saying that. The offense is stacked at almost every possible position and has the potential to be elite with a better QB

It wasn't clear at all prior to the concussion. Smith was obviously getting the grand majority of the 1st team reps outside of Kaep's gimmick plays. Harbaugh must have loved what he saw in practice last week in addition to the Bears game

it's elite this year, per FO it's #2 overall and better than the D.

#2 offense? better change the QB

nothing can go wrong

The disparity between how much people focus on this with regards to the QB position in relation to other positions is quite silly imo. Why can a RB get benched for fumbling(which happens often) but then get his job back next week and be fine, but a QB is just too mentally fragile for that?




You shifted the goalposts from "Is Kapernick better than Alex Smith" to "Is Kapernick going to be great".






No, it is the exact and total opposite!!!

Derek Jeter has good stats on the surface(good fielding %), but when you look deeper into the stats(look at the range of balls he gets to) you realize that those numbers are misleading. Its the same way with Smith. You're looking at basic stats and not trying to look into why or how Smith attains those stats.


Where are you getting this number from? Let me guess: You're looking at his yards per attempt(a basic stat) without factoring in his sacks and looking at his net adjusted yards per attempt(a more advanced stat)

Now do you see why I feel the way I do with regards to your Derek Jeter example??? In the very same paragraph that you accuse me of "not looking at stats", you only look at a basic stat and ignore a more advanced stat which gives us a more clear overall picture. You are most definitely the "Derek Jeter fan" here.





Their pass blocking grade is unfairly lowered by Alex Smith taking a ton of sacks(when other QBs wouldn't have).

Regardless of that, the point was that the QB of the 49ers has a great surrounding cast(awesome D, best run game in league, awesome o-line, good TE, deep WR corps that lacks a true #1). Thats the only point I was trying to make in citing their o-line ranking.


Again, let me preface this by saying I"m not trying to be rude/sound condescending/etc. etc.....


You guys need to come into the weekly NFL threads and debate more. So many people on the pro-Smith side are frustrating me with the way they are using stats to try to make their argument. Its just absurdly flawed and incomplete info you guys continue to spout out. I'm not saying that you're not smart people- I just think you could use more practice at it, which is why I think you should come into the NFL weekly threads more often. If you go into the weekly thread and cite a QB's Y/A, QRT, and completion % while ignoring other huge factors like sacks taken then you're going to get mocked, but thats a good thing(as long as you have tough skin), as you'll quickly get better.

*Not aimed at you in particular, Matt R, just talking to the pro-Smith side in general here




people have been talking about replacing Smith for about 5 years now. The problem has been a lack of other options, so as soon as a reasonable one has come along the discussion has started again.




It depends on what kind of offense they run. If they run a normal NFL offense that maximizes their scoring EV, then yes thats possible imo. But if they run the same offense they've run with Smith, then its very tough for me to see that happening- its impossible for me to overstate how much SF's offense goes out of its way to minimize the possibility of QB mistakes when Smith is in the game.

Smith's numbers against the Giants this year: 2.17 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 0 TDs, 3 INTs





It is remarkable until you look deeper at his stats. Once you've looked deeper at his stats, you realize that citing completion percentage alone is entirely misleading and should never be done by anyone trying to honestly assess his value.

How do you know this? Because he's pretty ok with Smith as his QB and Smith sucks therefore he'd put up 80/1200/8 with Kaep throwing to him?

Small sample = ok when showing a QB with one start is better than a vet QB that's #1 in comp%, #3 in Y/A, #3 in QB rating, but small sample = ridiculous when noting that same QB with one start actually has a higher sack % than lolalexsmith?

OK, prior to this year where the offense is clicking incredibly well, show me how these same players are ultra-elite simply by upgrading Alex Smith. Show me how Crabtree and Mario Manningham and old Randy Moss is "stacked", and, in the past with an upgraded QB, have put up "elite" numbers. Pretty sure you're going to have to go back to Moss's Patriot days to find an actual piece of evidence to support this "stacked" assertion.

Vernon Davis has put up elite receiving TE numbers the last several seasons. Guess who his QB was?

So after one game, it is crystal clear Kaep is the superior QB going forward (for the rest of the season, not career), yet there was not enough information in the 1.5 years before this one single game to conclude this? Yet the sample size for Kaep's sack% is too small to think it may not just be Alex Smith causing all the sacks? How does this make any sense at all?

I think the common narrative is total bs. To be a decent qb, you have to be pretty smart and mentally tough usually. Alex smith has gone through a turn style of awful head coaches and offensive coordinators, and a lot of other rigorous circumstances. I also heard an interesting anecdote about how alex and one of the other backups in sf (awhile back) were best men at each others weddings. Anyway, the notion that if harbaugh goes with KEAP, that alex smith would be "done" and you couldnt bring him back is ridiculous, imo.

Inverting the order of posts because BAIDS summarized it quite well.

The QB interacts with literally every other piece of the offense by modifying or even calling plays at times, knowing the routes, passing to, developing chemistry with every single receiver, throwing to the RB, developing an understanding of how the o-line blocks and adjusting in the pocket accordingly, directs and leads the offense, offensive team captain, etc.

The RB takes handoffs, occasionally catches passes, and has to know blocking assignments on plays. If the RB goes where he's supposed to go, the rest of the offense is unaffected by an RB change. It's far more complicated with a QB. If the QB is terrible, the whole offense falls apart. The Niners are #2 total offense, yet we want to make a QB change? To a guy with 1 NFL start? Because he played really well against a (normally) good defense in one game? wut?

Edit -- It's not Alex Smith that is the main concern. It's how swapping QB's out on a whim affects the rest of the offense. Although I think there is an advantage for the coaching staff showing a tiny bit of faith in Smith so he's not worried about losing his job if he makes a bad throw or gets a concussion.

His NY/A is 11th in the league this year. This stat includes sacks. This is better than Romo, Roethlisburger, Luck, Stafford, Rodgers, Rivers, Cutler, etc. He is 9th in the league in ANY/A which also includes sacks. He's one behind Rodgers in this stat, ahead of Matt Ryan, Eli, Stafford, Romo, Rivers, Cutler, Palmer, etc.

You are acting like his sack adjusted stats are terrible. Where are you getting this from? Do you feel comfortable in saying a guy with one NFL start will put up better sack adjusted numbers than the quarterbacks I just listed?

Like Kaep who has a sack rate almost a full % higher?

Thanks for prefacing your comment with this!


So look at sacks taken in a vacuum but ignore how it factors in with his other extremely good stats to show Smith sucks? And ignore Kaep has a higher sack%? Is this what I'll learn by interacting more with you guys in the NFL threads? Can't wait!


Oh I see. People are mad they were wrong about Smith being a bottom of the barrel starter for the past 5 seasons because they failed to take into account a blown out shoulder and the worst coaching one could imagine, so they are jumping all over this opportunity to shout "see?? I was right!!" based on one game from a 2nd year player. Makes sense.

Not trying to be condescending here, but c'mon man.

I didn't say with Kaep, I said above avg QB. And I believe this bc of eye test ldo. He's a great route runner, has good hands, and in general just looks like a very talented receiver. I've seen Smith routinely miss him on wide open 20+ yard throws

You're making my stance look stronger than what I'm actually pitching. I don't think anyone here is suggesting that Kaep is already better than Smith, just that they are more excited about what he brings to the table for this team. I'm just saying wait for Kaep to have more than one start before you start saying that his sack rate is worse.

How about the best OL in football? A top 10 maybe even top 5 RB tandem? At worst a top 3 TE? The WR are easily the weakest unit on the offense and they are still solid, although I would take that back if Crabtree got hurt

and yet Vernon had ringing endorsements for Kaep immediately following the game. He was comparing Kaeps throws to Brady/Peyton (lol). Imo, Vernon would put up Graham/Gronk type numbers with a better QB. Again, don't mistake that for me thinking that Kaep is that guy, I just think he has a much better chance to be that guy than Smith, who we pretty much know has hit his ceiling

NO, you are the only one saying that!

I think my side of the argument certainly leaves itself open to accusations of wanting to sacrifice EV for the sake of continuity,

^This basically,

And that might be what is happening.

I do however think that the Kaepers itt are ignoring or failing to fully take into account the downside which has historically been associated with (~)rookie QBs

seeing the general reaction after the decision, ya, this is probably accurate

Smiglet,
Will maybe respond in more detail later:

Maybe I misunderstood you, but do you think Kaep should replace Smith as starter or Smith should remain the starter?

Or, in general, do you think Super Bowl contending NFL teams should immediately swap out a starter for a backup if the backup has one good game and MAY be better than the starter?