I'd start Kap. Alex Smith seems to be a qb that can't lead a team from a 14pt deficit with the calls played for his skillset. I think it's very possible the 49'ers could be in this position in the playoffs vs. the Falcons, Packers, Saints.

1.5 game sample, third of which is vs the lolrams.
both times vs teams that were not completely prepared for the unknown kaep.

kaep looks to have a better deep ball, more speed, better pocket presence. cite all your bull**** 1 game sample size stats you want. No one is disputing he should be our future if last night wasn't a fluke. Smith is gonna complete a higher %, and is gonna throw less picks. He will handle the ball better, and make very few mistakes. Kaep has 6 sacks, 3 fumbles, and 2 TDs in his limited performance, granted some of the snaps he took were stupid plays a few weeks ago. We didn't get to the SB last year b/c of our special teams and D, not b/c of smith. Ironic I know. Unless harbaugh is gonna deviate from normal 9ers play calling for the rest of the season, why would you replace him? Smith prolly wouldn't have aired it out to VD last night b/c he is a scared pussy, but if he did it'd be caught by VD imo.

I'm all for the switch this off season, even with the 1.5 game sample. Our offensive potential is so low with smith.

Smith has had 3 300-yard games in 8 seasons. Luck has had 5 300-yard games in 10 games. Smith is only capable of managing the game. Smith can't fake a pass to fool the secondary. His hands are too small. Smith will never be better than an average QB.

right you are. posted in a hurry and botched the citation. apologies

here's what i don't understand about this argument: it seems like the argument is "i prefer alex smith because the offense is very conservative and would be very limited in mistakes thus allowing the strengths of the team (running and defense) to carry to victory and the qb to occasionally move the ball up the field 5 yards at a time." it's not a preference of qb but a preference of limiting susceptibility to interceptions

i mean that's all well and good, but now we're not talking about the quarterbacks themselves so much as we are the style of offense that's being run. it's almost like the pro-smith camp is considering the fact that he's so physically limited to be an asset because he's not tempted to throw deep?

i believe you are referring to the omission/commission bias where inaction is thought to be less harmful than action (when inaction EV is the same or worse). its a part of prospect theory framework. anyways, good posts itt

Atlanta 0
San Francisco -14

What happens if Kaepernick completely ****s the bed vs the Saints next week? Just go right back to Smith? These are real humans we're dealing with.

i hope kaep starts vs no. so we can settle this debate once and for all!

Smith did fine after Manning-Chasing, He did fine after years of fan hate for his bust status, he will do fine if they feel the need to go back to him.

Alex has had the ego bred out of him from all those games he sucked in.

If that was ever a concern in the NFL.

Assani and SRM own the thread. To try and put what they/others have said really simply imo its that SF's ceiling is Kaep>>>>Smith while their floors are pretty close, given Harbaugh and the quality of the rest of the team. With Harbaugh and that D they're not gonna crash and burn, they will still be in the hunt. And Kaep makes them way more potent on offense.

Do the pro-Smith people really not think Harbaugh is the main (read: only) factor in turning Alex Smith into a semi-postive player out of nowhere? In his first season with him and with no offseason training camp he was able to transform Smith and tailor his entire offense/gameplan around his QB's strengths/weaknesses (and lets be real, its based on his limitations way more than for his strengths). So why can't he do something similar w/ Kaep (who btw is Harbaugh's coveted QB draft pick)?

One more thing: Name one other above avg/contending team that would consider for even 0.001 second for their 2nd year QB to come in for the starter mid-game on special package plays on a week to week basis. Why would SF do this? IMO, its a combination of: A) They lack upside/explosive plays with their regular QB/offense, and so they resort to special packages to provide a spark by B) getting their young backup QB on the field semi-often because the coach(es) loves what he brings to the table.

If u believe in Harbaugh's coaching abilities then riding with Kaep is essentially freerolling for SF. And I think Harbaugh knows it.

As it has been said earlier, let CK play the next game and reevaluate.

Btw this is a really good thread with some very good posts and i haven't been flip flopping that much on a single (sports) topic before.

WE WANT CARR! WE WANT CARR!

What goalpost shift? The only question is who do you start, Smith or Kaepernick. I start Smith because I know his offense works. 6th in the league in AY/A and 8th in QBR while facing NFC west defenses. Kaep may do better but the downside is much worse.

They run an incredibly diverse offense. A huge combination of fades, slants, screens, deep bombs, runs in all formations, etc. I don't understand a need to run a "normal NFL offense" (whatever that is) when you've already got a pretty damn good offense as it is.

And I disagree entirely with this. You sound like Yankee fans who insist Derek Jeter is an incredible shortstop despite all stats pointing to the opposite. You keep insisting Alex Smith is bad despite numbers to the opposite. That he's being coddled, can't do what he wants, can't take a chance. Running safe simple plays that routinely gain 7-8 yards per attempt with almost no chance of turnover doesn't sound like he's being coddled, it sounds like smart football.

This doesn't make sense, especially about it not being a close decision. 49ers with Alex Smith are a home favorite against any team in the country, including a 4.5 pt favorite against GBP and 7.5 pt favorites against SEA and NYG (these spreads are even more impactful that they're against good defenses in low totals). Alex Smith has huge EV by being the safe and consistent option. Kaep may have more EV but certainly has a much lower floor IMO and it's absolutely a risk. You should evaluate the EV of each option but recognize that the EV of Smith is well-known and high while the EV of Kaep is still uncertain.

I hope Kaep starts against the Saints so we can see more.

Smith holds back the Niners offense and is asked to do less than nearly every other QB in the league. He takes a ton of sacks, considering how elite his OL is. He doesn't take risks downfield, with under 8% of his attempts exceeding 20 yards. The Niners run on over 50% of plays, 2nd-most in the league. Smith is asked not to screw up because they lean so heavily on Gore.

On plays in which Smith is pressured, he takes a sack more than 1/3 of the time. That's atrocious and happens to be the worst in the league. It's pretty well-documented that Harbaugh encourages Smith to hold onto the ball and take sacks rather than throw under pressure. He doesn't trust him.

Eye test isn't even debatable. Smith can't make all of the throws and Kaep can. Smith doesn't have the skillset to win a game from behind.

They're not committed to Smith long-term. They can cut him after this season and only have to eat 1m of the money left on his deal.

I don't think this should be all that debatable tbh.

I meant there are personalities, organizational politics and economic interests at stake in these decisions. There's a reason why Sanchez couldn't possibly lose his job this year.

Smith doesn't take shots downfield because he doesn't need to. He has the highest comp% in the league doing short throws and it works well.

They run 50% of all plays because Gore is getting 5.3 yards per rush. If I were Harbaugh I'd be rushing a lot too if I were getting >5 yards per rush, even with a decent QB.

Smith's sack% is 10.0% this season. Kaepernick so far? 6 sacks on 55 dropbacks (10.9%).

It's almost like you ignored the big stat in bold. You can't honestly tell me Smith avoids sacks at a better rate than Kaep.

Smith doesn't take shots downfield because he can't, not cause he doesn't want to rofl.

Answer me this: Niners are down 14 with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter @ Seattle. Who would you rather have at QB?

I think people forget that you just can't plug in quarterbacks and expect the team to automatically become better. Chemistry has to develop around the quarterback to succeed. CK has been practicing with the 2nd team most of the season and needs time to gel with the first team. Believing that he will match his output this coming week is unrealistic.

Sure, Smith is not a pro bowl QB. He's average at best, but average QB work is enough for the 49ers to succeed. Why take such a huge risk? I can understand it if they had a losing record and their chances of making the playoffs were slim, but they're in the hunt.

saying the ceiling with kaepernick is higher is fine, saying the floor is the same is crazy

edit: and not b/c i think alex smith is good. kaepernick has one nfl start and does not have some kind of amazing pedigree. his floor is very bad and extremely error prone (like any other young qb)

tbf kaepernick's sack rate is 16% when subbing in for wildcat plays and replacing an injured starter in the 2nd quarter, and 4% when starting with a full week to prepare. of course it's possible that this wide disparity in sack rate is all variance but it's also possible it is not.

Clicking on Assani's like to profootballfocus ranking SF's line as the "best in the NFL" this year, one quickly sees their pass blocking rating is 15th. wtf were you trying to prove with that stat? They're a really awesome run blocking unit that commits few penalties?

Yeah, Colin Kaepernick played way better vs. the Bears than expected. The Bears did not prepare at all for that aggressive of a gameplan with a 2nd year QB starting. Saying Kaep's floor is ~same as Alex Smith after ONE GOOD START is insanity. His ceiling may very well be a lot higher, but we aren't going to see his ceiling in his first year. Chances are we will see his floor in playoff games against elite teams.

How would the team react if Smith playing really well gets benched for a 2nd year QB due to one good game and Smith having a concussion? There's also the chemistry issues as SuperUberBob mentioned. Smith isn't elite, but he's a good QB for this team -- low passing volume mistake free football is better for a SB contending team with an elite D than a (potentially) high passing volume mistake-prone QB with 1 NFL start.

I mean, if you think Kaep is Aaron Rodgers and we just have him sitting on the bench, then lol at you, but go ahead and start him I guess over the veteran who is 3rd in the league in Y/A and QB rating and #1 in completion %.

Oh, and re: Alex Smith can't come from behind because he's just too terrible. He did it 6 times last year which led the league.

we'll see his floor in the playoffs against elite teams, but we won't see his floor in a game against a team with the best pass defense in football that needs to win to keep their division lead. makes sense.

edit: this "defense wasn't prepared for the backup" stuff gives nfl coaches and players an amazingly small amount of credit. do you actually think that starting your backup qb out of nowhere on occasion is a legit winning strategy? because that's basically what you're suggesting.

also what percentage of the time do you think a random scrub backup gets a surprise start that isn't a complete surprise against a team with an amazing pass defense playing in a very important game for them and performs as well as kaepernick? it can't be very high.

1.5 games (at home) and the worst case scenario for some of you is that CK is an average NFL QB going forward.

Ridiculous.

If it was week 15 I'd get Alex back in there, but they can afford to go with Kap for a week or two and go back to Smith if need be. Seems like a no brainer considering the upside.