Sweden is a very interesting price, valenzuela, i was going to discuss it later on and still am, very odd odds :E
im from sweden too so theres more to it than a financial interest for me

Croatia dark horses, loading up massively on Ze Germans. El Clasico seems to have got a lot more toxic these last 2 seasons since the WC, and imo will have a negative effect on team unity. Can see Spain bombing out before the final, and Germans always German in tournaments.

Also done our group being 1. France 2. Sweden, and Cahill being top scorer for Eng @ 66/1

will probably rinse more money during the tourney

Maybe if they would play in the same group

Backing France myself, and Ireland of course .

lol france. Down 2-0 to iceland right now

2 goals conceded because of stupid evra IMO

It's cool, all the top sides just sandbagging the friendlies...

3-2 for france at the end, but it was not briliiant thu.

If you do a statistical analysis of the games from all the top leagues the past years found here:

http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

you will see that you on average lose less, the more of a favourite a team is, actually. This is on average, though, so obviously there might be some clear valuebets among the games.

ribery's goal was very nice though

Yes his all performance was quite good actually. Hopefully he will go on the same in the next matches.
I liked giroud as well.

Yea this is common knowledge, its pretty much gonna be marginal either way. Obviously there are exceptions in both directions but they are rare. Good thing you can bet for amusement rather than for financial interest knowing you get around what you pay for

recent high profile markets that were very much falsely priced were the CL final and west ham - blackpool in the PL playoff, in which west ham were really underestimated, appearently so even a week before kick-off, and chelsea seemingly was trading remarkably low

In golf there is plenty of value up for grabs before and during the first round, when the money converts and piles up the price usually ends up being very close to correct, when the market activity is low you can pretty easily find skewed odds, but obviously they are surrounded by odds with terrible over-round

except from Gourcuff and Evra who were terrible , everyone did ok

Menez,Benzema were very good

Nutshot,

I like Italy a decent amount in terms of value. I don't think they're going to win the thing, but I like them to play well and get out of their group, and they're not going to draw a killer quarterfinal opponent (France is the worst case scenario) and they avoid Spain until the Final no matter what. If they look good and go fairly deep as I expect, you could always hedge before the semi or the final if you wish.

I also sort of like Portugal for the same reason. Obviously they're in a killer group, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see one of Netherlands or Germany fall apart. I expect them to play ugly, cagey stuff against the big teams in their group (like they did in the WC against Brazil, Spain, and Ivory Coast...a grand total of 1 goal scored in the three games iirc). And of course, they have the best player in the tournament. No one would be stunned to see them beat Germany or Netherlands 1-0, and if they do make it out of the group they'd be up against the easiest group for their quarterfinal.

Basically, the Euro generally has so much parity that I don't like the top 3 favorites very much. I like Italy a lot, and Portugal may be worth a shout if you can get them at long enough odds (aren't they near 20/1? I would take that in a second given how likely I think they are to reach the semifinal).

thanks for replies guys, will be placing some bets tonight

any ideas on top goal scorer?

Portugal have not played well at all except for a couple of games in the last 2 or 3 years though. I really doubt their ability to get out of that group.

And as I said before about Italy, going to be hard for them to get out of their group too. Ireland will be perceived as the whipping boys of the group but we match up very well against Italy and they will find it harder to beat us than either of the other two teams imo.

No one is mentioning France except me who imo are actually in with a real shout of doing well in this.

I don't dislike France, and I would sooner bet on any of Italy, France, or Portugal than any of Germany, Netherlands, and Spain, so I agree.

I like Italy to do enough to come out of the group. If Spain get all 9, Italy can easily go through with 4 points even if they have trouble with the Irish as you predict and draw or whatever. And I of course understand that you like Ireland and think they'll do well, hell I hope they do well too, but I make the Italians fairly good favorites in both non-Spain matches. I like their roster.

I know Portugal has not played well at all, but they're really long odds for the amount of talent they have. As I've said before, I wouldn't expect them to light it up, but if they play really defensive (again, as they did in WC2010), they could easily win a game and get out of the group if Ronaldo gonna Ronaldo. Then of course, if they do get out of the group, they get a relatively easy QF as I said.

Who knows? I'm no professional sports bettor. Those are just the ones that jump out to me as good value.

Anyone ever placed a bet on Boylesports or Coral? Are those legit-ish sites? They have Lewandowski at 33:1, 28:1 on betfair 18:1 on bwin and 30:1 on Bodog...nice split lol
Guess I'd go with Bodog if I don't get info on the other sites

Last 3 games vs Italy it's Ireland 1 win 2 draws !

Both totally legit sites.

Yeah several times, I like it there. Julian alps mostly but Ljubljana and down to piran as well you closer to Maribor or jesenice?

Interesting. This is not the case, to put it mildly, in any other sport I have studied.

I live in Slovenj Gradec which is closer to Maribor. Obligatory question: Lasko or Union?

Definitely Lasko, they're not all that different really though.

http://m.skysports.com/article/football//7782924

Italy scandal stuff, Mauri arrested

Weird. I did a paper on it last summer, and there were a ton of articles on the "favourite-longshot bias": People overestimate an underdog's chance of winning. This could be a horse in a race where you get odds 50 to 1, when in reality the odds should be 1000 to 1 for instance.