2022-2023 Saw Manchester City’s Death Star become fully operational winning the Premier League with 89 points by edging out a young Arsenal team that flew too close to the sun and ran out of gas. This was part of a historic treble winning season for the Citizens that will finally shut up united fans talking about their European Treble. This makes 5 PL wins in 6 years for City, which also matches United’s run in the late 90’s of 5 in 6.



This also gave us the drunk jack grealish show:



End of Season Awards:
Manager of the Season – Pep
Player of the Season, Young Player of the Season, FWA Footballer of the Year, Golden Boot (36 Goals) – Haaland
Golden Glove (16 clean sheets) – De Gea


Goal of the Season – Julio Enciso vs City



Save of the Seasoon – Kepa vs Villa





With 2023-2024 right around the corner it’s hard to say that City won’t be big favorites to repeat again as markets show them to be about 10 point favorites in the projected end of season point markets and as well as -135 in premier league winner markets.





The new season also brings us 3 new teams in Burnley, Sheffield United, and Lutown town while bidding farewell to Southampton, Leicester City, and Leeds united to the championship. Of the newly promoted teams, only Burnley are predicted to not immediately be relegated again.

Team Previews Part 1:

The favorites:
Man City (89 pts, +41.3 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
City are a fire breathing dragon with no financial constraints, the best coach of all time, and one of the two best current players in the world in Haaland. They have some needs/turnover to address with Mahrez and Gundogan leaving and only Kovacic coming in so far. KDB also had a bad injury at the end of the season. City are just smart and rich enough to make me believe they’ll solve any problems they might have squad wise so it will be business as usual and their title to lose.

The Bear Case:
If you want to make an argument for why City might have a drop off next season it starts with the KDB. He’s such a special player and with Haaland destroying the PL in his first season it can be easy to overlook KDB’s importance to the team. He’s 32 and ended his season with a pretty bad injury so there’s a chance he isn’t able to get back to his highest level. They’ve also lost Mahrez, Gundogan, and potentially Silva while only bringing in Kovacic so there’s an argument to be made that City are a bit light in attack. Couple that with the potential comedown from a season where they finally got over the line in the CL, and it’s not completely farfetched to think City’s intensity may drop slightly opening the door for the chasing pack to make a race of things this year.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Kovacic - €29.10m from Chelsea

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Mahrez – €35.00m to Al-Ahli
Gundogan – Free to Barcelona

The top 4 favorites and title chasers:

Arsenal (84 pts, +31.1 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Pre world cup Arsenal pretty much matched City’s output and were the clear 1b team in the premier league (Possibly Europe as well). This was one of the youngest teams in the PL and just got younger with their projected starting line up all being 26 or under. If Arsenals talent ID of Havertz and Rice is correct it’s easy to see this young group taking a step forward with some of their depth issues addressed, especially now that it looks like Partey is staying. I can easily see a scenario where Arsenal push city to their limits again this year, especially if Saliba and Jesus are fully healthy again after their injuries last year.

The Bear Case:
The end of last season was not great for Arsenal, and you can make the argument that their pre world cup underlying numbers were not representative of the talent in the squad. They are taking a big gamble moving on from very experienced players in Xhaka and Partey to Rice and Havertz in the starting 11. It’s a clear move to get more offense out of the left 8 role, but you can certainly ask the question if Rice will make up for that defensively. There’s also not clear cover for Saka on the right wing who’s been playing an absurd amount of football. Add in a return to the champions league and you can see a scenario where Arsenal is forced to make some tough rotation choices that may cost them some points in the league.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Rice - €116.60m from West Ham
Havertz - €75.00m from Chelsea
Timber - €40.00m from Ajax

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Xhaka - €25.00m to Leverkusen

Liverpool (67 pts, +21.4 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Klopp is one of the best coaches in football and finds a way to fix his team’s defensive issues. Their attack looked as strong as it has been, and they’ve refreshed the midfield with Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, and potentially Lavia to replace Henderson as well as potentially Fabinho leaving. This allows them to reinvigorate their heavy metal press which alleviates some of the strain on their defense. Also let’s not forget that Luis Diaz and Jota are returning from prolonged injuries giving their attack some much needed depth and balance. I put Klopp in the same boat as Pep where I just assume he’s going to “figure it out” in terms of solving his team’s problems.

The Bear Case:
Van Dijk, along with Alisson, were the final pieces in turning Liverpool into a team that could push City to the brink year in year out. With Van Dijk seemingly losing a couple steps the defensive problems of last year could remain, and you just aren’t going to be able to compete with City if you are conceding 50+ xGA. Also, if they lose Fabinho along with Henderson already leaving they are taking a massive risk depending on who they get to replace those minutes. If it’s Lavia, he’s only really been okay but he’s a player you would be looking to contribute at a high level a few years down the road, not immediately.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Szoboszlai - €70.00m From RB Leipzig
Alexis Mac Allister - €42.00m from Brighton

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Henderson - €14.00m to Al-Ettifaq
Firmino – Free to Al-Ahli

Top 4 Contenders and European Favorites:


Manchester United (75 pts, +17.3 npxGD)
The Bull Case:
United could nail their Striker signing along with Sancho producing at level his xfer justifies. Casemiro doesn’t age cliff just yet and manages to not miss 25% of the season with red cards. Their new goalie stops throwing the ball in their own net like de gea was and United have some potential upside as ETH enters year 2. Consolidating their spot in the top 4 would be a nice
progression.

The Bear Case:
United were very clearly the 6th best team by underlying numbers in the PL last season and just happened to win a bunch of close games to put up a point total that didn’t really reflect their underwhelming performances across the season. If they don’t get their striker signing right, and Casemiro closes in on the age cliff, it’s easy to see this team falling into a battle for the top 4-5 and not being favorites in it.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Mount - €64.20m from Chelsea
Onana - €52.50m from Inter
Højlund - €75m from Atalanta

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Elanga - €17.50m to Forest

Newcastle United (71 pts, +31.7 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
They continue to be defensive juggernauts and Isak takes a step forward while getting more minutes in front of an aging Callum Wilson. Come January they splash more cash to fix any potential problems they might be having to keep up a strong campaign.

The Bear Case:
Newcastle’s underlying numbers were much better than their talent level suggest they should have been. Teams start to respect Newcastle more and force the team to try and break down set defenses instead of letting them counter. With Eddie Howe now seemingly having more input on transfers does he continue his poor track record with talent ID and Tonali/Barnes end up not being great fits/not good enough to really improve on the talent level of the squad? Their defense is kind of old and without a lot of depth, the addition of CL games could put a huge strain on their lack of depth at the back.

Notable Incoming Tranfsers:
Tonali - €64.00m from Milan
Barnes - €44.00m from Leicester

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Chris Wood - €17.00m to Forest

European Contenders

Chelsea (44 pts, -4.5npxGD) – HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

The Bull Case:
The talent level of this team is significantly higher than their performance last year, and things just went off the rails a bit with the BOEHLY era and coaching instability. Big Todd knew he had that sweet sweet Saudi money coming and would get bailed out for his unprecedented splurging. The young talent they bought starts to perform and Poch is able to put out a coherent product on the pitch. That should be enough to get them back into top 4/European places competition.

The Bear Case:
Chelsea got rid of A LOT of players who have been good at the PL level and replaced them with a lot of young guys that are still a bit unproven. It cannot be understated how incredibly ****ing bad Chelsea were last year, and it’s worth not hand waiving that away just yet. They could just end up not getting Caicedo, and that could be cause for some serious worry.

Transfers:
*Looks at transfermarkt page* Ya uh I’m not writing that **** up if you really care just go to the link below.
https://www.transfermarkt.us/fc-chel...ers/verein/631

Spurs (60 pts, +5.8 npxGD)
The Bull Case:
Kane decides to stay, and Son recovers from his injury that he played through last season. They have one last hurrah and mount a push to get back into the CL one last time before Kane leaves and Son fully age cliffs. Their new coach, Ange Postecoglou, who seems to be rated highly comes in and can bring some much-needed stability to the squad as opposed to absolute pscyhos like Mourinho and Conte. The other scenario is Kane leaves, and they are able invest well while also getting buy-in from the squad with Kane gone. Lo Celso and Ndombele return from good loans and get reintegrated into the squad in positions that they really need players in.
The Bear Case:
Kane leaves and they struggle to find a replacement, and Son’s last season was more age cliff than injury. Ange Postecoglou is out of his depth in the PL and struggles with the strength and tactics of the premier league. Richarlison continues to only be able to score goals that get ruled out for offside. There’s also the Kane staying scenario where he too age cliffs finally, and their coach can’t get buy in from the squad due to his presence.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Maddison - €46.30m from Leicester
Vicario - €20.00m from Empoli

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Harry Winks - €11.60m
Harry Kane???????????

Aston Villa (61pts, -.7 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Although they ran hotter than the sun after Emery took over from Stevie G there was genuine improvement in Aston Villas underlying numbers. They’ve brought in some well rated players while not really losing anyone. There’s some definite talent here, and bringing in a wide goal scorer like Diaby will go a long way in getting the production needed outside of Watkins to make a push for the European places. Also, it’s Emery, so there’s a 95%+ chance they are going to win the conference league as he’s just a wizard in European knock outs.

The Bear Case:
Anyone who watched Emery at Arsenal can tell you a hallmark of the Emery experience is massively overperforming their underlying numbers only to go on to have some really poor spells causing them to languish in the upper mid table. He’s a decent coach, but I just don’t think his coaching style lends itself well to league play. A little bit of bad luck and what would be a 7th place finish in la liga becomes a 10th-12th place finish in the premier league. He’ll still probably win the conference league even if Villa finish in the bottom half of the table, it’s just such an inevitability.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Moussa Diaby - €55.00m from Leverkusen
Pau Torres - €33.00m from Villareal
Tielemans – Free from Leicester
Notable Outgoing Transfers:
None.

Brighton (62 pts, +25.2 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
The biggest factor either way for this team is whether Caicedo ends up staying or not. If he stays, it’s easy to see a scenario where Brighton is knocking on the door for top 4 again as their underlying numbers were fantastic. Brighton have a handful of young players (Enciso, Ferguson, Undav, Pedro) who have some great numbers on limited minutes, and if any of them make The Leap ™ , it will go a long way to replace what they are losing with Mac Allister.

The Bear Case:
This is simple, they lose Caicedo and don’t have a ready-made replacement for him and Mac Allister. Brighton reminds me a lot of peak Southampton, and the same thing could happen here where you just aren’t able to keep replacing the good players you sell. It only takes a couple misses for a team of this level to really fall off from that strategy.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Joao Pedro - €34.20m from Watford
Verbruggen - €20.00m from Anderlecht
Igor - €17.00m from Fiorentina
Dahoud – Free from Dortmund
Milner – Free from Liverpool

Notable outgoing Transfers:
Mac Allister - €42.00m to Liverpool

The Mid Table:
The place where you are probably safe, but a slightly bad run of luck could see you in a relegation battle.

West Ham (40pts, -4.7 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
West Ham had a historic underperformance compared to their underlying numbers and while they were in a relegation fight, they really weren’t playing like a team that belonged there. The main talking point here either way will be how they deal with losing Declan Rice. There’s a lot of talent in the team, so even if they play slightly worse than last year if their underlying’s don’t fall off a ton, they should be more than fine. They’ve got 100+ m that they can use to make some upgrades and I’ve generally had faith in Moyes, so I think there’s a good argument that they’ll be completely fine.

The Bear Case:
Even though the team should have never been in a relegation fight Declan Rice took it upon himself to make sure they stayed up in the last 10-15 games of the season. He’s one of the best at his position and replacing that sort of player is always a monumental task. If you get it wrong, you have a gaping hole in the spine of your team which could spell disaster for West Ham. It also looks likely Scamacca will be going so they will need to replace him as well. I think there’s talent on this team that puts them in the mid table, but replacing stars is always problematic.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
None

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Rice - €116.60m to Arsenal

Brentford (59pts, +1.9 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
The question for Brentford of course will be how they deal with losing Toney to suspension. Yoane Wissa looks to be the temporary replacement, and his underlying numbers are certainly a step down compared to Toney’s. If you think that his production could tick up getting a longer run in the first team, then there’s a good case to be made that Brentford will be fine. Defense has been a real strength for Brentford so if they can put up good defensive numbers again, they’ll give themselves a platform to be in the mid table again.

The Bear Case:
Goals win games, and Brentford will be without their 20 goal scorer from last year due to Toney’s suspension. I don’t think they will be able to replicate that production unless they venture out into the market as Yoane Wissa has never had underlying numbers as good as Toney’s. It’s also likely they will be replacing Raya who’s been quite good for them, so there could be a drop off there as well. If Brentford ends up being closer to a relegation fight than the mid table, it will ultimately be because they had trouble replacing Toney’s offensive production.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Collins - €26.85m from Wolves
Schade - €25.00m from Freiburg
Flekken - €13.00m from Freiburg

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Raya???

Crystal Palace (45pts, -8.1 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
After relieving Viera of his duties Roy Hodgson had Crystal Palace looking quite good for the remainder of the season putting up a +.45 npxGD/90 over their last 10 games. The very clear solution to being better is simply not playing Jordan Ayew at striker for 2700 minutes. Mateta and/or Edouard should give a production boost if Palace decide not to enter the market for a striker like say Nketiah or Balogun. Palace were strong defensively last year so if that continues there’s a good reason to be bullish on Palace.

The Bear Case:
With Zaha leaving Palace will lose some production in attack, and if Eze or Olise gets sold they could continue having problems trying to find goals without a standout striker. I don’t see too many issues defensively with the team, so the main reason Palace could struggle this year will simply be if they can’t find offensive production outside Olise and Eze.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Lerma – Free from Bournemouth

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Zaha – Free to Galatasary

Burnley (Promoted From Championship – 101pts, +28npxGD / +.61xGD per 90)

The Bull Case:
Burnley were great in the Championship and Kompany is a highly regarding up-and-coming coach cut from Guardiola lineage. The best argument for Burnley would be they were a bit unlucky to go down the year they did. With Kompany having them play a style that lends itself to being more attacking they should be able to secure enough points to stay up.

The Bear Case:
We’ve seen it countless times where a team that plays progressive attacking football in the championship gets promoted, then struggles against better competition to replicate that style of play. If things aren’t working and Kompany doesn’t take a pragmatic approach to stay afloat they could find themselves in a relegation battle.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Amdouni - €18.60m from Basel
Trafford - €17.30m from City u21
Beyer - €15.00m from Gladbach

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Ashley Barnes – Free to Norwich

Fulham (52pts, -18.8 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Uhhh I guess you could get another monster season out of Leno, and Jimenez is able to replicate some of Mitrovic’s production? Ya sorry not really seeing a ton of upside for Fulham who sun ran incredibly hot last season. Avoiding the relegation battle is probably the ceiling for this team.

The Bear Case:
Fulham finished 10th while playing like a team that belonged in a relegation battle. They are potentially losing their coach and top scorer to the Saudi League. If Leno has merely an average shot stopping season and they can’t replace Mitrovic’s production this team is going to be in a world of hurt. I have a hard time seeing them not in the middle of a relegation dog fight.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Bassey - €22.50m from Ajax
Jimenez - €6.40m from Wolves

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Mitrovic?

Everton (36pts, -18.3 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Not being coached by Frank Lampard. Seriously.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the 2 teams who massively underperformed their talent level were both at times coached by Frank Lampard. This team has too many good players to be in a relegation fight. Dyche did wonders at Burnley with less of a budget, so it’s reasonable to think that he will be able to get Everton safely to a mid-table level. If they can get a healthy season out of Calvert-Lewin and some attacking output from Loanee Arnaut Danjuma they should be more than safe and could see themselves comfortably mid table.

The Bear Case:
While Everton improved from -.61 npxGD to -.25npxGD with the appointment to Dyche over the second half of the season, that’s still not exactly good and a bit below what I would expect a team with Everton’s talent level and resources to be. The problem is the resources might not be what they once were, so it’s not a given they can spend their way back to mid table. If Dyche can’t get better performances out of this roster, their underlying numbers aren’t at a place where I’d consider them to be invulnerable to falling into a relegation fight. Toss in a year where DCL can’t stay on the pitch again as well as Danjuma continuing struggle after a frustrating spurs loan, and you have a hard time seeing where the goals will come from as they didn’t have a single player in double digits last year for goals.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Danjuma – Loan from Villareal
The corpse of Ashley Young - Free from Aston Villa

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Kean - €30.00m to Juventus

The Relegation Candidates:

Bournemouth (39pts, -19.8npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Bournemouth was quite bad most of last year, but after some good attacking transfers in January of Traore and Ouattara their underlying numbers improved from -.63npxGD / 90 to -.49npxGD /90. That’s enough to go from relegation favorites to only needing a small bit of improvement to keep your head above water in the fight at the bottom of the table. They’ve brought in some more attack minded talent with Romain Faivre and Justin Kluivert so there’s reasons to be optimistic about their chances to stay up again this year.

The Bear Case:
Bournemouth was very clearly one of the worst 3 teams in the league last year for the first half of the season, and only stayed out of the relegation zone with some lucky results early in the season. If they can’t get the production they are hoping to from some of the incoming transfers you could very well see Bournemouth being amongst the favorites to go down again. With most of their transfers being attack minded their 4th worst defense in the league last year will likely continue to be a problem.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Kerkez - €17.87m from Alkmaar
Faivre - €15.00m from Lyon
Kluivert - €11.20m from Roma

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Lerma – Free to Crystal Palace
Zemura – Free to Udinese

Wolves (41pts, -22.2 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Wolves were very bad last year with the worst attack in the league by xG. The case for optimism would be getting some decent attacking production out of the group of young attackers that have had promising output elsewhere. These attackers were in and out of the lineup due to injury or various other reasons, so a full season of them staying on the pitch could be enough to move the needle from relegation favorites to safe zone but not quite mid table section.

The Bear Case:
Wolves are losing one of their mainstays in midfield with Neves going to the Saudi league, and it will be hard to replace those minutes. Their attackers while looking promising at other teams before coming to wolves have not yet put-up good numbers in the PL on limited minutes so if that continues it could be a struggle to find goals. There’s a clear point where the now departed Jimenez stopped scoring goals and when wolves went from solid to bad. A lower mid table defense, and bottom tier offense is a recipe for relegation.

Notable Incoming Transfers (handful of loans from last season they ended up buying so not listing them):
Doherty – Free Transfer from Athletico

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Neves - €55.00m to Al-Hilal
Collins - €26.85m to Brentford
Jimenez - €8.70m to Fulham

Nottingham Forest (38pts, -22.9 npxGD)

The Bull Case:
Both their offense and defense were relegation level by underlying metrics, so they’ll need to find a way to improve one of those if they don’t want to be favorites to go down. The most likely way to do that would be to get more out of Gibbs White and Awoniyi on the offensive end. Awoniyi had some solid goal threat numbers, and if he can be on the pitch for 2600+ minutes instead of 1400 that would go a long way to moving their offense out of the relegation level production.

The Bear Case:
Not much to say here, if Forest continues to be bad and don’t get some lucky bounces like they did last year they’ll be favorites to go down. While Awoniyi put up good numbers in limited minutes he still overperformed, so if he has an under xG finishing season that could easily spell death for Forest as it’s hard to see where they would find attacking output from otherwise.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
Elanga - €17.50m from United
Aina – Free from Torino

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
None

Sheffield United (Promoted from Championship – 91pts, +28.8 npxGD / +.6 xGD per 90 )
The Bull Case:
Their underlying numbers were on par with Burnley’s despite finishing 10 points lower in the championship. If you believe Burnley will be decent then you can make a case for Sheffield being able to stay up as well especially since there are some legitimately BAD teams at the bottom of the premier league. If Jebbison who had great underlying numbers can replace Ndiaye’s output, then there’s a fighting chance for them to stay up.

The Bear Case:
It’s always an uphill battle for newly promoted teams, and this will be no different as Sheffield will be losing their top scorer from last season with Ndiaye leaving for Marseille. It’s unrealistic to expect an 18-year-old Jebbison to replicate that level of production when given starter minutes so it’s easy to see a scenario where they just can’t get enough offensive production to stay up.

Notable Incoming Transfers:
None

Notable Outgoing Transfers:
Ndiaye - €17.00m to Marseille

Luton Town (Promoted from the Championship 80pts, +15.8 npxGD +.31 xGD per 90)

The Bull Case:
The only real scenario that exists where Lutown finds a way to stay up is if Carlton Morris continues his finishing heater from last season. He also finished similarly over xG in his 20-21 season with Barnsley so it’s possible he’s a plus finisher, but the premier league is always a different monster and there are very few players who prove they are in fact lifetime over xG finishers.

The Bear Case:
They are one of the worse teams to get promoted by underlying numbers in the xG era so it’s hard to make a bear case when the baseline already has them as the worst team in the PL. Could they be Derby level bad? I guess we shall see.

Reserved For Misc

Nice one ducky

In

Sure why not

In on frist page

MU fans will treat the City treble with the same amount of respect as the 7 Tour de France wins of Lance Armstrong

Which wins?

In for Lutown Town

hype!

Here we go for another season lads

PuliGOAT's brilliance no longer being showcased in the EPL

me disappoint

Xfinity dropped free Peacock for subscribers

me disappoint

1. Spurs
2. City
3. Chelsea
4. Man Utd
5. Liverpool
6. Arsenal
7. Chelsea
8. Brighton

Who cares

18. Bournemouth
19. Sheffield Utd
20. Luton

(May not actually be what i think)

you forgot NEW

Do Chelsea get to add their points together? Seems a bit unfair entering two teams.

Every summer for the last 40 years I've heard about how "next season's going to be our season" from Spurs fans. LOL

N'Golo was here.

I'm having a minute of silence for the PL right now

Frist paige

NICE. Thanks Duck

My $20 Havertz Arsenal kit from DHGate arrived a few days ago, so I’m all set for the season and can’t wait.

In.

Not convinced it'll be a comfortable season for the Clarets but I'm sure it'll be fun to watch.

Can I not edit posts after a certain time frame has past?

Half an hour ish I think. PM a mod and see if they can help?

indeed

i think you have 15 mins

i was wondering what the #2, #3 and #4 posts you made were for

Ya I'm prob just dumb but I remember at some point you had more time to edit posts. I'll reach out to a mod.

It's very important my previews be on the first page so it's more easily accessible for everyone to find and quote when I'm completely wrong about them.

You should go to Luton. Then you’ll support someone else.