English Football 2018-19, Football that is already Home - Page 13 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

You have probably hit on what is going to be a methodological problem for people creating Xg models, which is to add data which retrospectively gets Xg closer to last seasons LT and to exclude data which moves away from it, even though the latter might be more accurate at removing run good.

38 games is nowhere near a big enough sample size to want to exclusively work towards it. It will have to involve exploration of parameters which will only correlate over much larger samples.

07-24-2018 , 06:33 AM

#302

daca

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i can't wait for when we get real value added models and solve football

07-24-2018 , 07:49 AM

#303

PeteBlow

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ra_Z_Boy

38 games is nowhere near a big enough sample size to want to exclusively work towards it. It will have to involve exploration of parameters which will only correlate over much larger samples.

Which is why these models should only be applied to sports with seasons of lots of matches. Like US rounders and netball.

07-24-2018 , 07:59 AM

#304

royalblue

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while over here we'll just not talk about football until 38 games are complete and we get to discover: Oh wow, Manchester City were the best team in the league!

07-24-2018 , 08:30 AM

#305

Consty

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,134

xG's old news now, it's all about Packing.

07-24-2018 , 08:43 AM

#306

BOIDS

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SN has been saying that for about 5 years fwiw

07-24-2018 , 08:59 AM

#307

TheGramuel

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tall Paul

Does this mean they were better than Southampton after all?

It's almost as if every improvement to the xG model gets it closer to the actual end of season league table. Maybe when it's perfect it'll be exactly the same.

You don't honestly think that 38 games = the long run, do you?

07-24-2018 , 09:19 AM

#308

Tall Paul

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGramuel

You don't honestly think that 38 games = the long run, do you?

No.

07-24-2018 , 09:29 AM

#309

TheGramuel

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tall Paul

No.

Now then now then then then then now.

07-24-2018 , 12:33 PM

#310

72off

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

i would think that mirroring the LT is irrelevant to anyone serious

07-24-2018 , 12:55 PM

#311

kingweed

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ChopSueyyy

mou 3rd season meltdown is well under way

Fred and Pogba should be immense partnership next year. Shame it’ll probably be just infringe if the back 6.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cinarocket

I'm guessing the old & naive xG models were just a prank

Nice. This is nice.

07-24-2018 , 01:51 PM

#312

aoFrantic

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 72off

i would think that mirroring the LT is irrelevant to anyone serious

Some people itt have little grasp on how stats work and dont even try to understand. It's been like three years of the same stuff, pretty boring by now.

07-24-2018 , 02:15 PM

#313

unwantedguest

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What was there to learn from the flawed xg from last season? Ffs they didn't even take defender/keeper position into account but it was still gospel for the suckers.

And you're an arsehole.

07-24-2018 , 02:26 PM

#314

unwantedguest

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Let's get it right.....

Some dude assigns a random number on each shot at goal based on nothing more than the position the shot was taken from. Xg in a nutshell.

Load of bollocks then and load of bollocks now.

Last edited by unwantedguest; 07-24-2018 at 02:29 PM. Reason: Nothing statistical about it. Made Knutson a few quid tho and that's all that matters.

07-24-2018 , 02:31 PM

#315

BOIDS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by martymc1

Ffs they didn't even take defender/keeper position into account

--

based on nothing more than the position the shot was taken from

two shots from ~the same place on the pitch in the same game, one against a set defense and one not

07-24-2018 , 02:39 PM

#316

72off

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aoFrantic

Some people itt have little grasp on how stats work and dont even try to understand. It's been like three years of the same stuff, pretty boring by now.

feels like way longer than 3 years, but yeah, basically

and yeah, it's way past ****ing boring

and i'm not even telling anyone to care or anything
if you don't care, then cool, whatever, who gives a ****
you don't have to throw a piss-fit about every ****ing thing you don't like or care about, just ignore it and move the **** on

****

07-24-2018 , 03:18 PM

#317

Tall Paul

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Some people itt have little grasp on how football works and dont even try to understand. It's been like three years of the same stuff, pretty boring by now.

07-24-2018 , 03:39 PM

#318

72off

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yeah, but we let you hang around anyway

07-24-2018 , 03:46 PM

#319

Tall Paul

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Amazing how I manage to crush everyone at FPL every year while knowing nothing about football.

07-24-2018 , 03:54 PM

#320

royalblue

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Maybe there's an inverse relationship. IIRC fanerio lost pretty badly in fantasy, but dominated his weekend kickabouts in a manner you could probably only dream of.

07-24-2018 , 03:54 PM

#321

72off

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tall Paul

Amazing how I manage to crush everyone at FPL every year while knowing nothing about football.

Spoiler:

07-24-2018 , 04:01 PM

#322

Tall Paul

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 72off

Spoiler:

HU4ROLLZ?

07-24-2018 , 04:10 PM

#323

Ambush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by royalblue

Maybe there's an inverse relationship. IIRC fanerio lost pretty badly in fantasy, but dominated his weekend kickabouts in a manner you could probably only dream of.

Haha those epic zeestein brags