English Football 2018-19, Football that is already Home - Page 105 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

i recall that time coq had about two good games in a row and was confirmed realdeal. tho admittedly guendo does appaear to have a certain level of spunk to him

08-19-2018 , 07:12 PM

#2602

DuckSauce

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mw828

Educate me on why you are citing xA stats at the team level. How does it matter if it a chance was assisted/unassisted?

It's expected goals against. Sorry for the confusion.

08-19-2018 , 07:17 PM

#2603

kingofcool

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Kids a winner. Get on the train.

08-19-2018 , 07:49 PM

#2604

xXDeuce7Xx

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LOL that's great. About time Arsenal got someone with a bit of HEART and PASSION.

08-19-2018 , 07:56 PM

#2605

DonkDonkDonkDonk

Goose

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 40,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx

LOL that's great. About time Arsenal got someone with COJONES.

08-19-2018 , 07:59 PM

#2606

TheGramuel

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckSauce

Think chelsea and arse are pretty close (yesterdays game showed as much)..

Arsenal won the xG 2.21-1.66. V surprised at that.

08-19-2018 , 08:05 PM

#2607

BOIDS

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they kept spooning open goals over the bar

08-19-2018 , 08:16 PM

#2608

PeteBlow

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGramuel

Arsenal won the xG 2.21-1.66. V surprised at that.

Why?

08-19-2018 , 08:43 PM

#2609

TheGramuel

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteBlow

Why?

Because I watched the whole game and I felt Chelsea were the better team and that it wasn't really that close. I guess the fact that the Arsenal chances that they missed were absolute sitters is what made this the case. Auba and Micki missed what should be 0.8+ xG, ha.

08-19-2018 , 09:03 PM

#2610

DuckSauce

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Some models had it closer. Chelsea completely dominated the second half, ars produced next to nothing. First half though they had 4 big chances (.4xg or higher typically classified as a big chance).
Tie would have been a pretty fair result imo.

Tale of two halves really so easy to think Chelsea was better due to recency bias of them being better in the second half.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGramuel

Arsenal won the xG 2.21-1.66. V surprised at that.

08-19-2018 , 09:08 PM

#2611

TheGramuel

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckSauce

Recency bias of them being better in the second half and totally dominant for the first 20 minutes of the game.

08-19-2018 , 09:10 PM

#2612

kingofcool

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People shouldn't rely too much on xG. It may be better than the actual outcome in predicting performance, but only if used over a great sample.

Chelsea were indeed better.

08-19-2018 , 09:39 PM

#2613

aoFrantic

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BOIDS

i recall that time coq had about two good games in a row and was confirmed realdeal. tho admittedly guendo does appaear to have a certain level of spunk to him

But he mostly looked good because he could tackle then pass the ball to Cazorla.

I'm not guaranteeing he will be special, but since cazorla the only first team CMs we have bought are elneny and xhaka. That is not good.

Last edited by aoFrantic; 08-19-2018 at 09:48 PM.

08-19-2018 , 09:42 PM

#2614

kingofcool

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Not like Coquelin is some bum, like Januzaj.

08-20-2018 , 01:56 AM

#2615

ChopSueyyy

formerly IRunWorse

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 18,611

throwing a tantrum in the middle-circle during a game equals winner? lol arse. gdouzi sucks.

08-20-2018 , 02:29 AM

#2616

xander biscuits

watching a movie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 39,745

In PL2 Man City have conceded 9 goals in 2 games. But they still won them both and are top of the table...

08-20-2018 , 04:46 AM

#2617

Tall Paul

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RIP Jimmy McIlroy, the greatest Claret of them all.

08-20-2018 , 05:06 AM

#2618

vruuuuk

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 2,423

Was just reading some old post of people laughing at me saying that Pep would never allow Ederson to kick long balls.
Props to Guardiola for having a functioning brain I guess.

08-20-2018 , 05:09 AM

#2619

Cinarocket

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Are we talking about long balls?

Spoiler:

08-20-2018 , 05:56 AM

#2620

PeteBlow

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofcool

People shouldn't rely too much on xG. It may be better than the actual outcome in predicting performance, but only if used over a great sample.

Chelsea were indeed better.

... and because of transfers it’s impossible to have a large sample size. Even Spuds making no purchases won’t give them a larger sample size because their opponents have changed.

Trying to use xG for a sport with a 38 game season is ridiculous.

08-20-2018 , 06:15 AM

#2621

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,797

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteBlow

Trying to use xG for a sport with a 38 game season is ridiculous.

That's really the same as saying it's ridiculous to decide the PL title over 38 games as the sample size is too small. Casual observation is usually enough to tell us the best team wins the title, and the worst team finishes bottom.

I'd say there are enough data points over a season to have a high degree of confidence in the results of xG models - the main area of contention is whether the method is valid, not the accuracy of the result it produces.

08-20-2018 , 07:14 AM

#2622

BOIDS

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update: jose mourinho is still a ****

08-20-2018 , 07:24 AM

#2623

BOIDS

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munfan poll, bold those you take to replace jose right now

zidane
ancelotti
poch
enrique
giggsy
wenger
conte
avb
brent
martymc1 of two plus two poker forum
sherwood
claude
moyes

Last edited by BOIDS; 08-20-2018 at 07:29 AM.

08-20-2018 , 07:33 AM

#2624

PeteBlow

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Elrazor

The post I quoted referred to xG being used to predict, not assess.
They are two very different things.
When used as a tool to assess performance, xG is valid but as I said, the transfer market makes it ridiculous as a prediction tool.

You, of all people, should know nothing is black or white.

08-20-2018 , 07:38 AM

#2625

PeteBlow

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BOIDS

munfan poll, bold those you take to replace jose right now

zidane
ancelotti
poch
enrique
giggsy
wenger
conte
avb
brent
martymc1 of two plus two poker forum
sherwood
claude
moyes

Remember when SAF was originally going to retire, it was all about David O’Leary

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